How aggressive will the Phillies be at the trade deadline? Let’s look at Dave Dombrowski’s history for clues.

If it’s the Fourth of July, then it’s trading season in baseball. And in the Independence Day spirit, general managers hold this truth to be self-evident: All trade deadlines aren’t created equal.

Some years, you’re a buyer; others, you’re a seller. One season, pitching is the pressing need; the next, you’re looking under every rock for a hitter. Often, not always, demand exceeds supply. But market dynamics change year to year — and sometimes, day to day.

Dave Dombrowski has seen it all.

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“You’re always trying to make your club as good as you possibly can,” the Phillies president of baseball operations said this week in an interview. “I’ve done both: I’ve supplemented [the roster], and I’ve made bigger [trades]. You’d rather not make a big blockbuster if you don’t have to. Because that means you’ve got a lot of pieces in place.”

Few teams, if any, have a more complete roster than the Phillies.

Entering the weekend, they led the majors in ERA (3.17) and were fourth in OPS (.752). They scored the fourth-most runs (433) and allowed the second-fewest (316). They owned the best record in baseball (57-30) and were close to getting back their designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber), catcher (J.T. Realmuto), and MVP-candidate first baseman (Bryce Harper) — roughly 35% of the offense — from injuries.

But there also might not be a team that’s more all-in for a World Series title. The Phillies marched all the way to Game 6 in 2022, then blew a lead in the NL Championship Series last year. Owner John Middleton is authorizing a club-record $260 million payroll (calculated for the luxury tax) and opened spring training with an impassioned speech about wanting his (expletive) trophy back.

So, with the trade deadline drawing closer — set an alert on your phone for 6 p.m. on July 30 — there’s curiosity within the industry about how aggressive Dombrowski will get.

Will the Phillies pull off a big trade for more offensive production in the outfield? Through Thursday, they ranked 25th in OPS in left field (.646) and 26th in center (.594). Or will they make a smaller move for, say, a righty-hitting left fielder to platoon with Brandon Marsh?

» READ MORE: What if the Phillies’ outfield production doesn’t improve? Here are a few trade options to watch.

Maybe Dombrowski will add another power arm to the bullpen. The Phillies went after free agents Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson in the offseason and opted to “save the powder,” as Middleton put it, when they signed elsewhere.

The roster is practically identical to last season’s, and the Phillies’ band-of-brothers chemistry is real. Dombrowski is mindful of not disrupting it with a seismic move.

“You’re always cognizant of that in who you add to your mix, but with a club that has really jelled, yes, you’re focused on that,” he said. “You’re in a spot where you’re focused on, if you take this person off your club, how does it affect the overall?”

Predictably, Dombrowski won’t tip his hand on what the Phillies will do, but it’s also likely he isn’t sure. Through Thursday, 12 NL teams and nine AL clubs were in possession of a playoff spot or within five games. Until more teams commit to selling, it’s unclear who’s actually available.

“One of the difficulties in talking to clubs right now is most clubs don’t know what they’re going to do yet,” Dombrowski said. “They just don’t. But you’re still doing your homework. I’m still making my list, and our people are still doing their list and supplying them. And that’s been the same as every other year.

“It’s just, in some situations, you may have four or five things to address whereas, with a real good club, you may have a couple.”

» READ MORE: The Phillies got lucky with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and their trade deadline outlook

Dombrowski’s history suggests that he will do ... something. In 1988, his first deadline as the Expos’ GM after replacing deposed Bill Stoneman in midseason, he swung a five-player trade with the Reds. He has been wheeling and dealing ever since.

It’s most instructive to study Dombrowski’s deadline moves during the expanded wild-card era (since 2012). And given the Phillies’ first-place standing in the NL East — they held a nine-game edge over the Braves entering this weekend’s series in Atlanta — the most relevant seasons are 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018, when he ran teams that led their division at the All-Star break.

Let’s look back, then, at how Dombrowski operated in those seasons to see if there are hidden clues about the next three weeks.

Record at the All-Star break: 44-42; 3½-game lead

Trade: Right-hander Aníbal Sánchez and infielder Omar Infante from the Marlins for catcher Rob Brantly, lefty Brian Flynn, and right-hander Jacob Turner.

Never mind that Detroit had Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer atop the rotation and depth throughout with Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, and Drew Smyly. Dombrowski added Sánchez (and Infante) in a deal that involved Turner, a top pitching prospect.

» READ MORE: All-Star infield: Phillies’ Alec Bohm and Trea Turner join Bryce Harper as NL starters

It paid off. Sánchez posted a 3.74 ERA in 12 starts and a 1.77 mark in the postseason, including seven solid innings in Game 3 of the World Series. He won 14 games with a league-leading 2.57 ERA in 2013. (Turner had a 5.37 ERA in 102 major-league games.)

“We gave up a lot. We know that,” Dombrowski said at the time. “It hurts. But we’re trying to win this season, and you have to give up talent to acquire talent.”

One prospect Dombrowski didn’t move: Nick Castellanos.

Record at the All-Star break: 52-42; 1½-game lead

Trades: Reliever José Veras from the Astros for outfielder Danry Vasquez and righty David Paulino; shortstop Jose Iglesias in a three-way trade for outfielder Avisaíl García (White Sox) and reliever Brayan Villarreal (Red Sox).

Years before he sang a pop song on the field after a Mets game, Iglesias was Detroit’s deadline target. He filled a specific need. With Jhonny Peralta facing a suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis drug scandal, the Tigers needed a shortstop. Dombrowski grabbed Iglesias, a slick defender who was a backup in Boston.

» READ MORE: Building the Perfect Phillies Pitcher: The signature pitch from each starter, and what makes it special

Dombrowski insisted then that Peralta’s status wouldn’t have caused him to overpay in a trade. Teams were allowed then to deal for players who cleared waivers in August. That isn’t the case anymore, and it adds greater urgency to the trade deadline.

“A lot of times, you got a waiver claim or somebody that cleared waivers, you knew you could still go after him,” Dombrowski said this week. “Can’t do that anymore. You have to make sure when you’re looking at your club on July 30, that night, this is it.”

Record at the All-Star break: 53-38; 6½-game lead

Trades: Closer Joakim Soria from the Rangers for pitchers Corey Knebel and Jake Thompson; lefty David Price from the Rays in a three-way deal for Drew Smyly, infielder Willy Adames, and outfielder Austin Jackson (Mariners).

The Tigers were all-in after losing in the World Series in 2012 and the ALCS in 2013.

Sound familiar?

“We are built to go for it,” Dombrowski said after adding Soria to the bullpen and Price to fellow Cy Young winners Verlander and Scherzer. “We have to win.”

» READ MORE: Do the Phillies have the best Big Three in MLB? How they stack up to other formidable starter trios.

Given the analogous circumstances, it’s easy to imagine him saying those words again in three weeks. But is there a difference-maker such as Price on the market? Maybe White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and righty Garrett Crochet, or A’s rookie closer Mason Miller?

The 2014 Tigers somehow didn’t win a playoff game despite starting Scherzer, Verlander, and Price in a three-game sweep against the Orioles. A year later, with Detroit struggling, Dombrowski traded Price to the Blue Jays at the deadline.

Record at the All-Star break: 49-38; two-game lead

Trades: Infielder Aaron Hill from the Brewers for minor-league infielder Wendell Rijo and pitcher Aaron Wickerson; reliever Brad Ziegler from the Diamondbacks for minor-league pitcher Josh Almonte and infielder Luis Alejandro Basabe; lefty Drew Pomeranz from the Padres for righty Anderson Espinoza.

In his first full season with the Red Sox, Dombrowski homed in on three areas of the roster and struck early with a trio of deals before the break.

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Hill gave Boston infield depth and a righty bat for its lefty-leaning bench; Ziegler, an extreme ground-ball pitcher with a sidearm delivery, provided a different look in the bullpen. Pomeranz, an All-Star in 2016, was the big move, and it came at the expense of Espinoza, an 18-year-old who drew comparisons in Boston to Pedro Martínez.

Pomeranz didn’t duplicate his strong first half, posting a 4.59 ERA in 13 starts and moving to the bullpen in a division series loss to Cleveland. He was better in 2017 to help the Red Sox win a second consecutive division title. And Espinoza didn’t pan out, with injuries stalling his career.

Record at the All-Star break: 50-39; 3½-game lead

Trades: Infielder Eduardo Núñez from the Giants for minor-league pitchers Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos; reliever Addison Reed from the Mets for minor-league pitchers Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan, and Stephen Nogosek.

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Reed was a two-month rental who helped lengthen the bridge to closer Craig Kimbrel, while Núñez brought versatility and the production the Phillies hoped they would get this year from Whit Merrifield. The Red Sox repeated as division champs but got knocked out in the divisional round again.

But the Núñez trade paid off in 2018. He filled in throughout the year for injured second baseman Dustin Pedroia and slugged a three-run homer in Game 1 of the World Series.

Record at the All-Star break: 68-30; 4½-game lead

Trades: Infielder Steve Pearce from the Blue Jays for infielder Santiago Espinal; righty Nathan Eovaldi from the Rays for reliever Jalen Beeks; second baseman Ian Kinsler from the Angels for minor-league pitchers Ty Buttrey and Williams Jerez.

Like this year’s Phillies, the Red Sox were playing at a historic pace. But in the midst of a 108-win season, Dombrowski got granular at the deadline.

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The Sox added righty-swinging Pearce because they were vulnerable to left-handed pitching, and he became the World Series MVP. They slotted Eovaldi as the No. 5 starter, and he notched a 1.61 postseason ERA. Kinsler, whom Dombrowski once traded for in Detroit, split time with Núñez.

“They were little things that became apparent [needs] closer to the deadline,” Dombrowski said. “I think that’s normal. You’re always looking for ways to make your club better.”

And sometimes it’s the small moves that have the biggest impact.