Phillies observations: Four teams for buyers to watch at the trade deadline and more

If baseball’s trade deadline — 6 p.m. Tuesday to be precise — winds up being more lukewarm than the frenzies of the last few years, frustrated buyers will be able to blame the 2021 Braves.

Or the 2022 Phillies.

Two seasons ago, the Braves were 44-45 at the All-Star break and 52-55 at the trade deadline. But they added to their roster and rallied to win not only the NL East but also the World Series.

» READ MORE: Could the solution to the Phillies’ need for a righty-hitting left fielder come from the ... Mets?

Then came last year. With the cloud of a decadelong playoff drought overhead, the Phillies clinched the third NL wild card on the third-to-last night of the season and went all the way to Game 6 of the World Series.

It’s little wonder, then, that the Angels, seven games back in their division and four out in the wild card entering a doubleheader Thursday, are going for it. They control Shohei Ohtani, the best player in the sport, only through the end of the season. Why not make like the 2021 Braves or last year’s Phillies and dream big?

The Phillies, 2023 edition, continue to signal that they’re looking for a righty-hitting left fielder and starting pitching depth. They could pivot to other areas, notably the bullpen. But crossing off items on their shopping list may depend on how many teams on the fringe actually punt.

Here, then, are four teams the Phillies and other buyers will be watching intently:

Mariners: They were a half-game behind the Angels going into the day, with a president of baseball operations (Jerry Dipoto) who likes to wheel and deal. If they sell, walk-year outfielder Teoscar Hernández would be an option for the Phillies.

Cubs: Ten days ago, their direction seemed clear. But they won five in a row and seven of eight to climb within 4½ games in the wild-card race. A good weekend in St. Louis could compel them to stand firm. Otherwise, they’ll likely move Cody Bellinger, who bats left-handed but mashes lefties (1.044 OPS) and plays elite defense in the outfield and at first base.

» READ MORE: Murphy: The trade deadline won’t save the Phillies. Trea Turner and Co. need to save themselves.

Red Sox: Even as they contend for a wild card, they traded walk-year utilityman Kiké Hernández to free up playing time at shortstop. Will they do the same in the outfield with Adam Duvall? How about in the rotation with James Paxton? Both players could help the Phillies.

Tigers: They’re selling, but what value will they place on lefty Eduardo Rodriguez? He’s signed through 2026 but could opt out after the season. Right-hander Michael Lorenzen is a more straightforward rent-a-starter.

A few other Phillies observations:

So much about Trea Turner’s first season with the Phillies has been out of character, but it’s impossible to get beyond two numbers: .194 and .339, his batting average and slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs.

Entering the season, Turner hit .324 and slugged .580 against four-seamers. Peak velocity never bothered him, either. He was a .305 hitter with a .494 slugging percentage against heaters that were at least 95 mph. This year, he’s batting .150 and slugging .233 against the highest octane.

Turner has tinkered with almost everything in the batting cage to improve his timing.

» READ MORE: Will Trea Turner continue to bat second when he returns to the Phillies’ lineup?

”I’ve hit [with a] wide [stance]; I’ve hit narrow,” Turner said. “I’ve hit tall. Early in the year, I didn’t feel as athletic without the leg kick. Lately, I feel I’ve been athletic but a little bit simpler. When I can get that leg kick under control, and then with two strikes, I go no leg kick, that’s kind of a good sign for me. I’ve hit a lot of different ways in my career and have had success a lot of different ways. You’re looking for answers.”

From manager Rob Thomson’s vantage point, Turner has been out in front of pitches rather than staying back. It may be an indication that he’s unsure he can catch up to fastballs.

» READ MORE: Trea Turner’s struggles in his first season with the Phillies extend to his defense

”He’s got to back the ball up and try not to do too much and just be patient,” Thomson said. “He’s going out and getting it, and [the result is] pull-side ground balls.”

Or swings and misses. Turner has chased more pitches out of the strike zone (39.5% compared to 31.6% for his career), and his strikeout rate has risen to 23.9% from his career mark of 18.6%. Once again, four-seam fastballs are largely responsible. Turner’s whiff rate on four-seamers is 21.2%, the highest of his career.

Bryson Stott leads the Phillies in hits (113) and pitches per plate appearance (4.20). He ranks second in stolen bases (19). And he possesses the team’s lowest strikeout rate (15.6%), well below league average (22.1%).

Everything about Stott screams “leadoff hitter.”

Well, except this: Stott is batting .259 with a .297 on-base percentage in 38 games out of the leadoff spot compared to .300 and .342 overall. And although Kyle Schwarber is a .185 hitter with a .281 OBP in 50 games atop the order, the Phillies are 30-20 — and 99-74 over the last two seasons — with him leading off. The sample size is too large for Thomson and hitting coach Kevin Long to dismiss it as coincidental.

» READ MORE: Why keeping Johan Rojas in the lineup could help crystalize the Phillies’ trade deadline needs

But regardless of where he is in the order, Stott is rapidly becoming a hitter opponents don’t like to face. He’s also sparking a renewed appreciation for batting average. Of the 144 players with enough plate appearances through Wednesday to qualify for a batting title, only nine were hitting .300. Since 2008, the only qualified Phillies hitters to bat .300 were Bryce Harper (.309 in 2021, when he was NL MVP) and Ben Revere (.306 in 2014).

”The kid is such a baller out there, man,” Harper said. “It’s really fun to watch. I can’t say enough about how he goes about it, at-bat by at-bat, situation by situation. It doesn’t matter where he’s hitting in the lineup, what he’s doing. It’s just fun to watch. He’s going to be a star, man. It’s a lot of fun to see him do his thing.”

The Phillies will wait until Friday to add Rule 5 righty Noah Song to the active roster in Pittsburgh or put him on waivers.

It’s a complicated decision.

» READ MORE: Phillies nearing decision on Noah Song, and only one pitcher knows the journey from Navy to the majors

On one hand, Song has upside that’s attractive to every organization. On the other, before his 30-day minor league assignment, he hadn’t pitched competitively since 2019 while serving in the Navy. As expected, it’s taking time for his command and velocity to return. He walked 11 batters in 11 innings over eight appearances, and his fastball averaged 92-93 mph, down from 96-98 mph four years ago.

A rival evaluator said it “looks like there’s more in there.” Surely, the Phillies agree. But carrying Song as a long reliever in the majors would limit their flexibility as they contend for a playoff spot.

» READ MORE: Phillies trade deadline: The cost of pitching insurance, defense vs. power, and other questions