Phillies at the trade deadline: Sizing up potential starting pitcher targets

Dave Dombrowski has a confession that will surprise no one who has followed his 33-year career as the lead baseball executive for five teams.

“I love star players,” he said. “I always have. I’ve acquired a lot of them.”

Just as Tom Cruise can’t quit making Mission Impossible movies, Dombrowski can’t resist a marquee name. From Mark Langston with the 1989 Expos to Nick Castellanos with the 2022 Phillies — with Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Moises Alou, Mike Piazza, Iván Rodríguez, Magglio Ordóñez, Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter, David Price, Yoenis Céspedes, Craig Kimbrel, J.D. Martinez, Chris Sale, Kyle Schwarber, and dozens of others in between — he has collected more stars than a planetarium.

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It’s fairly stunning, then, to hear Dombrowski say he doesn’t plan to go star hunting before the trade deadline at 6 p.m. Tuesday, even though the Phillies have a real chance to end a 10-year playoff drought, a winning record against almost every National League contender, and the formidable duo of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop the rotation.

Maybe Dombrowski is playing possum while plotting a big strike. But in identifying starting pitching as the Phillies’ most pressing need because of the uncertainty over Zach Eflin’s balky right knee, he didn‘t push prospect chips into the middle of the table for Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo at the top of the market and seems disinclined to do the same for Oakland’s Frankie Montas in the second tier.

“Every position, there’s premium guys out there and then there’s other guys that could be helpful. Well, the premium guys are probably going to cost you your top prospects.” Dombrowski said this week, before the Mariners landed Castillo late Friday night for their No. 1, 2, 10, and 26 prospects, according to Baseball America. “I don’t think as an organization we’re in that position right now. I just don’t think we’re there.”

Other intriguing options may still materialize by Tuesday. If the Giants’ free fall continues, they could move Carlos Rodón. The Rangers could deal Martín Pérez, although Texas may be just as likely to sign the veteran lefty to an extension. Pablo López is available for an impact bat, but would the Marlins trade a 26-year-old with a 3.05 ERA in his last 40 starts and two more years of club control to a division rival?

If the Phillies are really going to hoard their best prospects — and so far, they have signaled to teams that pitchers Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, and Griff McGarry are off-limits — they must be opportunistic in addressing their rotation needs from the third and fourth tiers of available starters — the “other guys,” as Dombrowski called them.

Let’s dig in on a few of them:

» READ MORE: Phillies’ Nick Castellanos ‘just hasn’t been right, and he’s made it worse,’ says personal hitting coach

OK, so Syndergaard remains a big name — with a classic nickname, to boot. But after Tommy John elbow surgery, does Thor still have the stuff to match his Q Score?

That’s the question facing teams that are talking to the Angels. Syndergaard’s fastball averages 94 mph these days, as opposed to the upper-90s in his salad days with the Mets alongside Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, and Matt Harvey. Further, his strikeout rate is 18.9%, down from 26.6% at his peak.

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Syndergaard, who turns 30 in a month, still gets a lot of ground balls with a sinker that has been as effective as at any point in his career. The right-hander has a 3.83 ERA and a 3.96 FIP (fielding independent pitching) in 80 innings over 15 starts. One reason for pause: He has pitched in a six-man rotation with the Angels. How will he handle a more standard workload, especially after throwing a total of two innings in the majors in 2020-21?

But the return for Syndergaard — and other walk-year starters such as Pittsburgh’s José Quintana, who tossed 5⅔ scoreless innings Friday night against the Phillies and has a 3.50 ERA — figures to be a mid-level prospect, maybe two if the Angels pick up the $7 million left on his contract. Even if Syndergaard can’t start Game 3 of a wild-card series, he should be able to help the Phillies get there.

With Eflin sidelined by a knee injury last year, the Phillies acquired his replacement in a deadline deal with Texas. But Kyle Gibson appealed to them for another reason: His contract ran through this season.

Could Mahle be this year’s Gibson?

Two months ago, the everyone-must-go Reds may have been more likely to keep Mahle, whose value dipped in proportion to his climbing ERA (6.32 through 10 starts). But the 28-year-old right-hander has a 2.81 mark in his last eight starts and is back in play. All eyes will be on him Saturday night, his second start back from a three-week absence with a shoulder strain.

» READ MORE: How the deadline deal that proved to be lifeline for Phillies’ playoff hopes went down

Overshadowed in Cincinnati by Castillo, Mahle had a breakthrough 2021, with a 3.75 ERA and 210 strikeouts in 180 innings. He’s making $5.2 million this year and is eligible for salary arbitration once more. He can’t be a free agent until after next season.

But just as access to a year and a half of Gibson meant trading Spencer Howard, it’s reasonable that the Reds would command an upper-level prospect for Mahle. Would the Phillies swallow hard and move catcher Logan O’Hoppe, whose profile has risen even though his path to the big leagues with the Phillies is blocked by J.T. Realmuto? If Mahle is healthy, it may be worth considering.

Never heard of him? A quick primer:

Kuhl, 29, grew up in Delaware and got drafted by the Pirates in 2013 out of the University of Delaware. The Rockies signed him in March to a one-year, $3 million contract, and he’s been their most consistent starter. The right-hander blanked the Phillies for six innings on April 18 in Colorado and tossed a three-hit shutout against the Dodgers on June 27. Through June, he had a 3.49 ERA before a rough four-start stretch boosted it to 4.48.

Oh, and it’s pronounced ‘KOOL.’

» READ MORE: Will the Phillies' next big signing be a star shortstop? There could be plenty of options.

Entering Friday night’s start against the Dodgers, Kuhl held opponents to a .197 average on his slider despite throwing it less often than his sinker. The Phillies have gotten good results from relievers Andrew Bellatti and Nick Nelson this season after getting them to throw more sliders. Could they similarly attempt to optimize Kuhl’s slider?

Dombrowski chuckled this week at the cost for back-end starters — “You might ask for a No. 5 starter, and they might ask you for your No. 1 prospect,” he said — but a deadline tends to cause market conditions to shift in favor of buyers.

If the Rockies want to trade Kuhl, it won’t take a top-level prospect to get him. Any thought that the Phillies might attempt to pry loose 37-year-old closer Daniel Bard, who was also in his walk year, dissipated when reports surfaced on Saturday that he’s signing an extension in Colorado and will be off the market..

If what goes around really does come around, well, Eovaldi will be a Phillie.

In 2018, Dombrowski acquired Eovaldi for the Red Sox in a deadline deal with the Rays. Tampa Bay’s general manager then is Boston’s president of baseball operations now: Chaim Bloom. If Dombrowski and Bloom agreed once on Eovaldi’s value, they could surely do so again.

Four years ago, Bloom took left-hander Jalen Beeks, then the Red Sox’s 11th-ranked prospect by Baseball America. The Phillies may have an equivalent in lefty Erik Miller, who is having a dominant season out of the bullpen at double-A Reading.

» READ MORE: If the Red Sox become sellers, Nathan Eovaldi could be a trade option for the Phillies

The swooning Red Sox won’t trade star shortstop Xander Bogaerts or third baseman Rafael Devers at the deadline, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them move on from Eovaldi or even J.D. Martinez, whose contracts expire after the season. Eovaldi, 32, allowed 14 runs (12 earned) in 8⅔ innings over his last two starts, but took a 3.34 ERA into the All-Star break.

And Dombrowski will always have a soft spot for Eovaldi after he pitched six innings in relief on two days’ rest in Game 3 of the 2018 World Series, a Herculean effort that earned him a $68 million contract extension in Boston.

What better way for Eovaldi to complete that contract than by reuniting with Dombrowski to help push the Phillies into the playoffs for the first time since 2011?