Three Phillies storylines to watch as baseball’s winter meetings open

NASHVILLE — With the payroll projected to top $250 million for luxury tax purposes and “no gaping holes” in the roster, as Dave Dombrowski puts it, the Phillies probably won’t make the biggest move of baseball’s winter meetings, multiple rival executives are forecasting.

But Dombrowski also didn’t come to the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center this week to splash around the lazy river that runs through this massive hotel.

» READ MORE: Why Dealin' Dave Dombrowski is comfortable running back the core of the Phillies’ roster in 2024

There’s still offseason business to take care of, even if the to-do list is shorter than normal after Aaron Nola came back for $172 million over seven years. And although the Phillies aren’t involved in the sport’s top story — Shohei Ohtani’s free-agent derby! — don’t be surprised to see them connected with other big names, given owner John Middleton’s World Series ambitions and Dombrowski’s history as a wheeler-dealer.

More than likely, the Phillies will try to improve the edges of the roster, particularly the bullpen and bench. Pitching depth always qualifies as a need. Matt Strahm proved to be the Phillies’ third-biggest signing at last year’s winter meetings, but the lefty wound up ranking among their most important pitchers.

Here, then, are three storylines to watch as the meetings start Monday.

On one hand, Dombrowski declared that Johan Rojas must win back a job in spring training after going 4-for-43 in the postseason. On the other, he said he’s “hopeful” that the 23-year-old will be the primary center fielder.

The Phillies’ dilemma exists somewhere in between those statements.

» READ MORE: Johan Rojas wasn’t supposed to stick with the Phillies — yet. But he had other plans.

Rojas’ elite defense was a big reason why the Phillies went 42-31 after the All-Star break. But as he continues to develop as a hitter, they must thread the needle between covering themselves in case he needs time in triple A and impeding his path to the majors.

“It’s hard because if you go out and get an established left fielder or center fielder, one or the other, you then block Rojas from making the team,” Dombrowski said. “Because [left fielder Brandon] Marsh is going to be out there.”

Sure, but how often? Last spring, team officials said they considered Marsh an everyday player. But manager Rob Thomson never fully turned him loose, in part because he batted .229/.321/.396 against left-handed pitching.

The Phillies could pursue a center fielder, such as free agents Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor. Or they could seek a righty-hitting outfielder to play every day or split time with Marsh, depending on Rojas’ status. (Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham would fit, although the Phillies decided against trading for either of them at the deadline.)

But the best solution might be plotting a middle course and signing a super-utility type who could cover them in center field if Rojas isn’t ready or slide to a jack-of-all-trades bench role. In that case, keep an eye on Whit Merrifield or Kiké Hernández.

What about a trade for Juan Soto? Don’t hold your breath, although with the Padres reportedly set to trade the star slugger, Dombrowski surely will keep checking in.

» READ MORE: Pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is officially on the MLB market, and the Phillies are likely to bid for him

Like many teams, the Phillies are interested in bidding on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But they would have to clear salary in order to add the prized 25-year-old right-hander from Japan, with industry sources indicating that his price tag could far exceed $200 million.

The Phillies have other, less costly pitching needs. The bullpen is well-stocked with José Alvarado, Strahm, and Gregory Soto from the left side, and Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, and Orion Kerkering from the right. But the Phillies are looking for a late-inning righty to replace free agent Craig Kimbrel.

A name to watch: Jordan Hicks.

Hicks, 27, has a blazing fastball but erratic command, a combination the Phillies tapped into with Alvarado and Soto. Hicks had a 3.29 ERA, 81 strikeouts, and 32 walks in 65⅔ innings last season for the Cardinals and Blue Jays.

But Hicks is also likely to get multiyear offers because of his relative youth compared to other free agents.

» READ MORE: Staying at first shows Bryce Harper’s commitment to Phillies — and an expectation they will pay him back

Last spring, the Phillies and Nola couldn’t agree on terms of a contract extension. It worked out anyway, the sides coming together after Nola reached free agency.

But the Phillies prefer to avoid similar suspense with Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler is basically in Nola’s situation from a year ago. The difference: He will be 34 next year; Nola is 30. But Wheeler, a free agent after next season, is the team’s undisputed ace, with a 3.06 ERA over the last four seasons.

Last week, 34-year-old righty Sonny Gray agreed to a three-year, $75 million deal with the Cardinals, a deal that might serve as Wheeler’s salary floor. Talks on contract extensions don’t typically take place until spring training, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Phillies spoke with Wheeler’s agents this week.

“We’d like to keep him in the organization for a lengthy period, but it’s not always easy,” Dombrowski said. “It’s something that I’m sure we’ll pursue at some point, but I’m not sure how important it is for them at this time.”

» READ MORE: How the Phillies closed the seven-year, $172 million megadeal with Aaron Nola

Another extension candidate: Bryce Harper.

Yes, Harper is signed through 2031. But that’s his age-38 season, and he has said he wants to play into his 40s. Middleton doesn’t want Harper ever playing for another team. An extension seems inevitable, even it’s not especially urgent.