Let’s go ... D-backs? And ... Dodgers? Weird week looms as Phillies eye playoff matchups

Win two games.

Lose the rest.

Sprinkle in a few wins for the Dodgers. Maybe a few for the Mets, as long as it is fewer than the Diamondbacks.

And … muah!

Chef’s kiss.

What we have here is the recipe for a perfect postseason setup.

The three most serious threats to the Phillies in the current National League playoff field are the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Padres. I’d rank them in that order, although you can certainly make an argument on the merits of the Padres’ pitching staff and the Diamondbacks’ juju. Whatever the case, the Phillies may not have to worry about any of them until the National League Championship Series.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ division title party is unspoiled by unfinished business. Now, get the first-round bye.

All they need:

If all of that comes to fruition, the National League Division Series matchups would look like this:

You can get yourself into a lot of trouble worrying about things that you can’t control. You can get yourself into even more trouble if you try to control them. But, then, sometimes trouble finds you regardless.

Back in 2011, the Phillies learned a tough lesson in the vagaries of chance and the merits of merit during the final weekend of the regular season. They’d clinched everything they could clinch as early as they could clinch it. Sitting at 99 wins with a five-game lead for the top seed in the National League playoffs, all that was left during the final series in Atlanta was to get the pitching staff lined up and keep everyone healthy.

Oh, and it would really help if they didn’t sweep the Braves.

See, the Braves were locked in a fight with the Cardinals for the final seed in the NL playoff field, the winner of which would face the Phillies in a best-of-five National League Division Series. The Braves of back then were not the Braves of right now. Good team, but not a scary one. The Phillies were 19-14 against them over the previous two seasons. They’d won nine of 15 and outscored them 67-42 in 2011.

The Cardinals? Different story. As good as those Phillies were, they could never solve the Cardinals. They’d scored just 56 runs in their last 17 regular-season games against St. Louis and had lost six of nine in their 2011 regular-season series.

The ideal outcome was obvious. You wouldn’t have blamed the Phillies if they spent the series sitting in the dugout doing the tomahawk chop. Instead, they won the first two games and then somehow managed to win a 13-inning marathon on the last day of the regular season to put the Cardinals in the playoffs.

We all know what happened next.

Charlie Manuel did the right thing back then when he swore that the Phillies were going to play as hard as they always do. Karma is often a fate worse than St. Louis. Still, even if the Phillies weren’t going to play to lose, it would have been nice for the Braves to win.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper knows the Phillies’ time is now. But he also believes their window isn’t close to shutting.

This time around, things are more convoluted. The second seed is the priority. The Phillies didn’t get any closer on Tuesday. They need to lock it up by Saturday in order to prevent Zack Wheeler from having to pitch a real one. Do that, and they’ll guarantee themselves a wild-card bye. After that, it’s a best-of-five NLDS series against either the No. 3 Brewers or one of the Braves/Mets/Diamondbacks, all within a game of each other for the fifth and sixth seeds.

The Diamondbacks and the Braves are two of the three teams the Phillies should be wary of. The third is the Padres, who will presumably finish as the top wild-card team and claim the fourth seed.

In order of preferred NLDS opponent, the Mets and the Brewers are the clear top of the list. Although both have some weird mojo stuff going on, the Phillies beat both in their season series. Plus, they are the Mets and the Brewers.

Beyond that:

1) Braves

The fatalistic poet in me has long said that the Braves are destined to sneak into the last wild-card spot and then beat the rusty division-champ Phillies coming off a bye. If Reynaldo López comes off the injured list at full strength, I may yet be convinced.

2) Padres

I want to believe that, 100 years from now, the Padres will look back on that viral fan dance video as their Billy Goat moment. That pitching staff, though: one of the best closers in the game in Robert Suárez backed by two guys with ninth-inning experience (Tanner Scott, Jason Adam) and two others with closer stuff (Jeremiah Estrada and Adrián Morejón). Not to mention two Cy Young candidates (Dylan Cease, Michael King) and a reinvigorated Yu Darvish. The only knock on them is the dance video.

» READ MORE: Phillies prepare for third straight postseason run: ‘This is the standard’ for this team now

3) Diamondbacks

I guess the Phillies would have beaten them last year if it was a best-of-five series. I guess I don’t care. These D-backs have a lot of the Bruce Bochy Giants in them. There aren’t a lot of teams who have a psychological advantage over the Phillies. Arizona might be one.

Again, the ideal scenario is for two of these three teams to play each other in the wild card for the right to face the Dodgers. If the Phillies have to settle for the second seed in order for that to happen, it will be more than worthwhile.