NL wild card: Three reasons the heavily-favored Phillies shouldn’t look past the Marlins
The Marlins may be the most improbable team in this year’s playoff field, but they aren’t one the Phillies will take lightly. Here's why.
Is it really October if you don’t conquer some demons?
The Phillies will get their chance against the Marlins, a team that has been a perennial thorn in their side over the past several seasons. Thanks to the Diamondbacks’ loss to the Astros on Sunday, Miami clinched the No. 5 seed and a wild-card date at Citizens Bank Park.
The Marlins may be the most improbable team in this year’s playoff field, but they aren’t one the Phillies will take lightly. Miami won the regular-season series between the two teams, taking seven out of 13 games. It was the second time in the last three years the Marlins had the head-to-head edge.
The Phillies will be heavy favorites in this series, which gets underway at 8:08 p.m. Tuesday. Everybody knows why. But here are three reasons to fear the Fish:
The Phillies are 0-2 this season against Jesus Luzardo, the Marlins’ presumptive Game 1 starter.
Not only that, but both of the Miami wins came with Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies. More on that later. First: Luzardo.
He hasn’t gotten the publicity of other starters in the National League field, but there’s an argument that he’s the one you’d least like to face right now. In his last seven starts, the 26-year-old Peruvian left-hander has a 2.61 ERA with even better fielding independent numbers: 48 strikeouts, 14 walks, and just one home run in 41⅓ innings.
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That’s more or less what Luzardo’s opponents have seen all season. He has quality starts in 17 of his 32 appearances. More intimidating: He’s held opponents to one run or less in 14 starts.
The Phillies know firsthand. In two games against Luzardo, they’ve scored a total of five runs in 12⅓ innings (3.65 ERA), with 12 hits, two walks, and striking out 14 times.
The Marlins have four tough lefties in the bullpen.
Miami’s bullpen has hardly been Shutdown City this season. But the unit is uniquely constructed to be a pain in the Phillies’ side. A.J. Puk and Tanner Scott are a couple of southpaws who’ve both spent time as the team’s closer. In front of them are Andrew Nardi and Steven Okert.
This is going to be a big series for Trea Turner and Alec Bohm.
The Marlins have Nola’s number
They scored at least four runs against him in each of his three regular-season starts against Miami. That included five home runs in 16 innings of work. Nola had a solid end to the season, with a 2.60 ERA, 17 strikeouts, one walk, and one home run allowed in his last 17⅓ innings over three starts. The biggest number is that one home run. In his first 29 starts of the season, Nola allowed 31 in 176⅓ innings. The Phillies should have the edge in Game 2 against either Braxton Garrett or Johnny Cueto, but that depends heavily on Nola avoiding a crooked number.
The Phillies have earned the benefit of the doubt with their consistent ability to rise to the occasion over the last year. Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler are the two biggest reasons to believe. But crazy things can happen in a short series.
We’ll have plenty more to say about this one over the next 36 hours.
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