Phillies or Diamondbacks? Our predictions for the NLCS

The Phillies are back in the National League Championship Series on a path that feels awfully familiar. Sweep the wild-card series? Check. Beat a favored Braves team in four games to win the NLDS? Check. Sing “Dancing on My Own” amid beer and champagne celebrations? Of course.

The similarities to 2022 will continue in the NLCS when they look across the field and see an 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks team that squeaked into the playoffs late and has won all five of its postseason games. They lack the payroll and star power of the 2022 Phillies, but the D’backs have embraced the same why-not-us mantra that took the Phillies within two wins of a championship last year.

Will it be enough to deny the Phillies a second straight trip to the World Series? Here are our picks:

How real is the home-field advantage in South Philly? The Diamondbacks pumped crowd noise into their ballpark before leaving for Philly as if they were Temple getting ready to play in Happy Valley. Good luck. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been excellent this month and it’s hard to see them losing at home, even against the formidable Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in Game 1 and 2. After that, the D’backs turn to right-hander Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3 and a likely bullpen game in Game 4. That’s why this series won’t last long.

Prediction: Phillies in 5.

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The Diamondbacks are an energetic, young club but the Phillies have the home-field and pitching advantage. That goes a long way.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Jose Alvarado, and Seranthony Domínguez haven’t pitched much better than right now. Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper haven’t hit much better than right now. Rob Thomson hasn’t managed much better than right now.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

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Corbin Carroll is a legit star, and he’s surrounded by difference-making Ketel Marte and Christian Walker. The Diamondbacks are also playing with the unburdened freedom of a team that wasn’t expected to get this far. So, yes, beware of the Snakes. But the NLCS is a best-of-seven series, which typically tests the teams’ depth, and the Phillies have the deeper roster, particularly on the pitching side. It feels like the D’backs will need to win at least three of the four games started by Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, which doesn’t leave them much margin for error in games in which they will be matched up against Wheeler and Nola. Besides, how do you bet against the Phillies’ two-year run of October magic?

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

This one is going to be a lot tougher than the last one, but the Phillies should have a starting pitching edge in Games 3 and 4. Combine that with home-field advantage and they should be fine. A lot depends on the bullpen, particularly Craig Kimbrel. Phillies take Games 1, 3, 5, and then close it out in six.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

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In the Diamondbacks, the Phillies are facing an opponent that has two factors in its favor: It’s playing with a ton of confidence, and it has nothing to lose. Arizona is 5-0 in this postseason, and still the D’backs are the underdogs in this NLCS. They’re make it tough on the Phils, but they won’t have enough to beat them.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.