NLCS questions: Craig Kimbrel, Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber among the big unknowns for Phillies

Don’t sleep on the Diamondbacks, and don’t be surprised if this thing goes six games — or seven.

The Phillies are rightful favorites to advance to their second straight World Series, but they are facing a team that has plenty of firepower. It starts with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, who have combined to allow just four runs in 17⅔ innings this postseason. Kelly, in particular, gives Arizona an excellent chance in Game 2. He’s as fresh as anybody in the field, having started just one game in the playoffs thanks to the Diamondbacks’ 5-0 run through the wild card and division series. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been just as good, but we saw Nola hit a wall in last year’s NLCS. Wheeler eventually hit one, too.

The Phillies’ fate hangs in the balance of these four questions:

It’s a results-based business. From that perspective, Kimbrel has been fine. He has retired nine of the 11 batters he has faced in the postseason. He has stranded both of the runners he has inherited. He has yet to allow a run. So the ends have been fine.

Things are more concerning beneath the hood. Kimbrel’s strikeout of Austin Riley in the eighth inning of Game 4 is his only strikeout of the postseason. He has allowed three deep fly balls, one of which could have given the Braves a 4-3 lead if not for Johan Rojas’ remarkable ability to chase it down at the wall.

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All of this comes on the heels of a regular season that ended with Kimbrel blowing four of his last nine save attempts. In his last 16 innings before the playoffs, he walked nine batters and allowed three home runs.

Rob Thomson doesn’t have a ton of options. Seranthony Domínguez clearly isn’t the same pitcher as the one who began last postseason by striking out 10 of his first 15 batters. That said, he isn’t walking batters, he is keeping the ball in the yard, and he is generating swings-and-misses. José Alvarado has been mostly excellent in his unique high-leverage role. He has stranded all three runners he has inherited while picking up holds in all four of his appearances. But his versatility is too valuable to pigeonhole him as a traditional closer.

Reality is, the Phillies are going to need Kimbrel. But don’t be surprised if Thomson continues to be creative with his combinations out of the ‘pen. In Game 4, he went to Kimbrel with two men on base and two outs in the seventh, a decision that ultimately paid dividends.

“He takes it great,” Thomson said on Sunday. “The only thing he wants to know is, OK, what’s the possibility of coming in earlier than the eighth or ninth, and when you lay it out before the game or early in the game, he’s fine with it. He just wants a little bit of a plan going in.”

Might Matt Strahm see some more high-leverage appearances after he nailed down the series-clinching save? Will Thomson be more willing to go to Orion Kerkering in a late and close situation? One way or another, bullpen management is going to be a big storyline.

Schwarber showed us last postseason how fast he can get hot. It’s easy to forget that he entered the 2022 NLCS hitting just 1-for-20 with eight strikeouts and no extra-base hits in six playoff games. The numbers are just as bad this year: 4-for-25, 10 strikeouts, no home runs. If the eruption is just as severe, the Phillies will be in good shape.

Schwarber exploded in last year’s NLCS, hitting that huge Game 1 home run in San Diego and finishing out the postseason on an absolute tear. In 11 games in the NLCS and World Series, Schwarber hit .314 with a 1.318 OPS, six home runs, 12 walks, and just 10 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances.

Gallen and Kelly will be a challenge. Schwarber is 2-for-14 with seven strikeouts in his career against the duo, albeit with a home run. Don’t be surprised if the Phillies win a game or two on a late-innings at-bat by Schwarber. He matches up well against a Diamondbacks bullpen that has seen its share of closeout struggles this season.

Speaking to the media during Sunday’s workout, Thomson was tantalizingly evasive when asked about Hoskins’ ongoing recovery from a spring ACL tear and the potential of him rejoining the roster.

“Yeah, I won’t tell you that because that would give away some of our roster, and that comes out at 10 o’clock tomorrow,” Thomson said. “But is he doing pretty well. He is getting live at-bats, and he is getting at-bats off the Trajekt [pitching machine]. He is running bases. He is sliding. He is doing pretty much everything except for taking ground balls.”

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Well, that’s interesting. Up until now, the Phillies sounded like they weren’t expecting to consider Hoskins before the World Series, if ever. That may still be the case. But Philly Rob’s caginess sure warrants some thought.

Let’s assume Hoskins is cleared to play. He clearly won’t be playing first base given that he isn’t taking ground balls. The only way to get Hoskins into the lineup would be to put Schwarber in left field, where he hasn’t played an inning all postseason. That seems unlikely. That said, Hoskins could bring some value as a right-handed pinch-hitting option in place of the lefty Jake Cave, who has yet to see a plate appearance this postseason. It would sure set the stage for a heck of a story.

Neither Taijuan Walker nor Cristopher Sánchez has thrown a pitch this postseason. Neither had a regular-season start against the Diamondbacks. The Phillies are going to need one of them to start Game 4. A lot could depend on whether Sánchez is needed out of the bullpen in the first three games of the series.

“That’s the key right there,” Thomson said on Sunday. “I think we have two really good options. They both threw BP today. Both were a little bit rusty, but that’s why we do it. But it’s all about how we use the bullpen in the next couple of days and also Game 3.”

If Walker and Sánchez are both available to start Game 4, the stage will be set for what could be a series-defining decision from Thomson.