Phillies vs. Mets for the first time in the playoffs: Our predictions for the NLDS

The playoffs will begin in South Philly on Saturday with a matchup we’ve never seen before: Phillies vs. Mets in the postseason for the first time.

They’ve seen each other plenty as NL East rivals, with the Phillies winning seven of their 13 meetings this season. The Mets, who turned around their season in June and got into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, have momentum on their side. They got past the Brewers in the wild-card round with a three-run home run by Pete Alonso in the eighth inning on Thursday night to win Game 3. But the Phillies, with the second seed in the NL, are rested after enjoying a bye in the wild-card round.

So who are you picking to win the NLDS? Here’s how our insiders see the series going down:

The playoffs will begin in South Philly on Saturday with a matchup we’ve never seen before: Phillies vs. Mets in the postseason for the first time.

They’ve seen each other plenty as NL East rivals, with the Phillies winning seven of their 13 meetings this season. The Mets, who turned around their season in June and got into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, have momentum on their side. They got past the Brewers in the wild-card round with a three-run home run by Pete Alonso in the eighth inning on Thursday night to win Game 3. But the Phillies, with the second seed in the NL, are rested after enjoying a bye in the wild-card round.

So who are you picking to win the NLDS? Here’s how our insiders see the series going down:

The Mets haven’t been this deep in the postseason since 2015, when they told Zack Wheeler he could buy a ticket if he wanted to watch his team in October. Wheeler, then a Mets pitcher rehabbing from Tommy John, told veteran New York baseball scribe John Harper that he would never forget how insulted he was. He’s often pitched like it against the Mets since joining the Phillies and this will be a chance to do it on a bigger stage. Wheeler, the best pitcher in the National League, will set the tone for the rest of the series with a dominant Game 1.

The lineup will take over from there as the Phillies have too much talent for the season to stop here. No player has more homers in the history of the National League Division Series than Bryce Harper. He’ll love playing the villain when the series goes to New York, which is where it ends. The Mets had a great week, but the playoff pumpkin isn’t turning into a carriage.

Prediction: Phillies in four.

The Mets have momentum, but the Phillies, of all teams, know the limitations of that. Their momentum ran out when they faced the Astros in the 2022 World Series. The question is how long the Mets will ride this wave, but I think the Phillies have a good chance to stop it. They have done well against left-handed pitching this year, and are about to face a left-handed heavy team. They’ll have home-field advantage in Games 1 and 2, with their aces on the mound.

The Mets don’t have a Wheeler, and they don’t have a bullpen like the Phillies’. Bullpens can make or break a playoff series, which gives them even more of an edge.

Prediction: Phillies in four.

Why will the Phillies roll the Mets?

Eight words:

Zack Wheeler.

Aaron Nola.

Bryce Harper.

Kyle Schwarber.

Wheeler’s playoff ERA is 2.42, which is the best in Phillies history among pitchers with at least eight starts, and his 10 starts are third most in Phillies history, behind Steve Carlton and Cole Hamels, who had 13 apiece.

Nola’s playoff ERA is 3.70, which is fourth, behind Carlton and Hamels.

Harper’s playoff OPS is 1.137, which is the best in Phillies history among players who have played at least 15 games.

Schwarber’s playoff OPS is .987, which is second.

This is the best top-end, big-game talent the Phillies have ever fielded.

They will have home-field advantage.

Prediction: Phillies in four.

Believe me when I say that there’s some serious and weird mojo happening at Citi Field. A seat in the second deck in right field is now purple in honor of a McDonald’s mascot that has become a good-luck charm. The second baseman is a pop star. And that was before the Mets went on the road and pulled off two of the most improbable victories in franchise history in a four-day span. There’s a real 2022 Phillies vibe going on right now with the Mets.

But there’s also something to be said for getting to the NLDS with the roster in good condition, and the Mets used nine pitchers in the three-game wild-card series. Eventually, there will be a toll to pay. The Phillies are rested and driven after near-misses in the last two postseasons. Plus, they will have Wheeler available to start Game 1 and 5. That might be all they need.

Prediction: Phillies in 4.

The last time the Phillies faced a team on a magical postseason run with improbable odds was the 2023 NLCS, and we all know how that story ended. The Diamondbacks came into Citizens Bank Park and proved the Phillies weren’t invincible there, stunning them with losses in Game 6 and 7 that still rankle a year on. So, sure, the Mets have some momentum — and, apparently, a lucky pumpkin — and they have pulled out several improbable wins over the past week. But the Phillies have learned the hard way not to take any of that lightly.

And unfortunately a lucky pumpkin can’t pitch a baseball game for you, and the Mets’ staff has been heavily taxed this week. They needed David Peterson to close the ninth inning on Thursday against the Brewers, putting plans for their Game 1 starter up in the air. And if not for Pete Alonso’s late-game heroics, the narrative from Game 3 of the wild-card would have been how every Mets hitter not named Francisco Lindor was ice cold for eight innings.

The Phillies are deeper, rested, and they’ve been here before. More than that, they have something to prove.

Prediction: Phillies in four.