By keeping J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius, the Phillies kept the band together. Will they keep playing a sad tune? | Scott Lauber

With spring training set to begin Feb. 17 — and the caveat that in recent years, the Phillies have added players in late February and even March — it’s fair to ask how much they have really improved.

After re-signing J.T. Realmuto, right, and Didi Gregorius, the Phillies are hopeful that their 2020 roster will produce better results in 2021.Read moreYONG KIM / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Jan. 31, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET

Say this for the Phillies: They kept the band together.

It’s no small achievement. Not in an offseason that began with Matt Klentak’s removal from the general manager’s office, massive staff reductions, and signals from upper management that player payroll may recede from a franchise-record level in 2020. Two months ago, the idea of the Phillies’ re-signing J.T. Realmuto or Didi Gregorius — and certainly both — seemed as likely as bipartisanship in Congress — and, well, $143.5 million later, here they are.

Seven weeks after getting hired as president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski did what needed to be done to keep the Phillies relevant in the loaded National League East. But here’s the thing: The band, even with Realmuto and Gregorius, went 28-32 last season and didn’t qualify for an expanded postseason field that included 16 of 30 teams.

The 2020 Phillies weren’t exactly the Beatles.

So, with spring training scheduled to begin Feb. 17 — and the caveat that the Phillies in recent years have made additions in late February and even March — it’s fair to question how much they have really improved.

“The Braves and Mets are ahead of them for me,” a scout from a non-NL East team said last week after Realmuto agreed to a five-year, $115.5 million contract, “and the Phillies and Nats are equal behind the other two.”

That opinion, bound to be a popular spring-training narrative, is based in part on last season. But implicit in the Phillies’ decision to make offseason priorities of bringing back two of their better players on multiyear deals is that Dombrowski and manager Joe Girardi place little stock in two months’ worth of games — and seem to have persuaded managing partner John Middleton to see it that way, too.

The Phillies were torpedoed last year by a bullpen that blew more games (14) than it saved (11) and posted a 7.06 ERA, one of the all-time worst 60-game marks. Still, it was only 60 games. And the depths of the struggles were so extreme that Girardi, for one, couldn’t fathom that it wouldn’t have gotten better with 100 more games.

“I really believe that we could have told the hitters what was coming and it wouldn’t have turned out as bad as it did,” Girardi said recently. “It was just one of those years where nothing seemed to go right.”

Dombrowski has paid greater attention to the bullpen than Klentak did last winter, when the Phillies took fliers on veterans who didn’t even break camp with the team. Dombrowski made a few tweaks here (trades for hard-throwing upside plays Jose Alvarado and Sam Coonrod) and a bigger move there (signing Archie Bradley to a one-year, $6 million deal). Bradley, in particular, brings closer experience and came at a more reasonable cost than Liam Hendriks (four years, $54 million to the Chicago White Sox) and even Brad Hand (one year, $10.5 million to the Washington Nationals).

Still, it feels like the Phillies are making a sizable wager on the inverse of Murphy’s law: the bullpen will be better because it can’t possibly be worse.

Girardi could surely use another proven late-inning option besides Bradley and Hector Neris. Among those still available: closers Alex Colome, Shane Greene, Trevor Rosenthal, and Mark Melancon, and setup men Joakim Soria, Jeremy Jeffress, Steve Cishek, and Sergio Romo.

The arms shortage extends to the starting rotation. As teams consider how to budget innings among pitchers who threw a fraction of their typical workload in 2020, Phillies general manager Sam Fuld and pitching coach Caleb Cotham said recently they will consider a six-man rotation and splitting up games between two starters.

One problem: After Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin, the Phillies have Vince Velasquez, Spencer Howard, newly signed lefty Matt Moore, and perilously little depth. They agreed last week to a minor-league contract with veterans innings-eater Ivan Nova. It’s a start. It’s not likely to be enough.

Questions persist about the defense, too. Gregorius is an acceptable shortstop; four-time Gold Glove winner Andrelton Simmons is elite and would’ve aided Alec Bohm, still a work in progress at third base. Before reaching the two-year, $28 million agreement with Gregorius that, pending a physical, will be finalized this week, the Phillies pursued Simmons, who agreed to a one-year, $10.5 million deal with the Minnesota Twins.

Last season, the Phillies graded out as 33 runs below average in defensive runs saved, according to Baseball Info Solutions. Only the Nationals and Toronto Blue Jays were worse. Once again, though, Dombrowski and Girardi will bet that 60 games doesn’t paint a complete picture.

For competitive reasons, Dombrowski prefers not to reveal the Phillies’ target payroll. Including Realmuto and Gregorius, it stands at nearly $168 million, $189 million for luxury-tax purposes, lower than last year but higher than it appeared it would be when the offseason began.

Any additional roster improvements figure to be on the margins — a minor-league contract for starter depth or a low-base, incentive-laden move for a reliever.

The Phillies, then, will pin their hopes to the offense that scored the fourth-highest run total in the NL last season. With Bryce Harper, Realmuto, Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins, Bohm, Andrew McCutchen, and Jean Segura, it should be just as prolific.

So, yes, the band is back together. But is it destined to keep playing the blues?