Gabe Kapler, Rhys Hoskins confident that track record of Phillies’ hitters will lead to more consistent offense down the stretch

PHOENIX -- When it's 115 degrees in the shade, folks will do anything to stay cool. So, Rhys Hoskins and Gabe Kapler had a pregame conversation here at Chase Field on Monday about the Phillies' offense.

Brrrrrr.

Four months into the season, the Phillies’ best hitters have not yet gotten hot at the same time. Hoskins, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, and even Scott Kingery have all taken turns swinging the bat well. But they haven’t strung hits together often enough to spark the big innings and lopsided numbers that they were projected to put up when they came together in spring training.

The result: Entering Monday night’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Phillies ranked in the lower half of the National League pack in most offensive categories, including runs (ninth), hits (10th), home runs (11th), on-base percentage (10th), and slugging percentage (12th). In losing two of three games against the Chicago White Sox last weekend, they went 5-for-26 with runners in scoring position, leaving them 13th in the league in on-base plus slugging percentage in that situation.

But the Phillies' collective struggles relative to the players' individual track records has actually left Hoskins and Kapler optimistic that the final two months of the season will be different. It might even be their biggest reason for optimism about their odds of winning a wild-card berth and making the playoffs for the first time since 2011.

"I had a conversation today with Rhys about how close we actually are to getting into that high run-scoring environment," Kapler said. "It's not that far away. It's really millimeters in a lot of ways. It's a little bit more hard contact. It's a little bit better luck. It's two guys getting hot at the same time to create that big inning, and sometimes that big inning can create confidence and momentum and that momentum can create a lot of wins."

A popular narrative is that the Phillies’ offense began to sag after leadoff man Andrew McCutchen was lost for the season to a torn ligament in his right knee on June 3. And there isn’t any denying that they miss McCutchen’s patience and discipline at the top of the order and his ability to set a tone for the hitters behind him.

But the Phillies actually have put up nearly identical numbers in the two months since McCutchen has been out. With McCutchen, they slashed .243/.325/.412 (.736 OPS) and averaged 4.9 runs and 8.3 hits per game. Without him, they have slashed .247/.318/.428 (.747 OPS) and averaged 4.7 runs and 8.6 hits per game.

The problem has been replacing McCutchen's skill set at the top of the order. Cesar Hernandez, Segura, Kingery and even Harper have shuttled through the top spot in the order, none sticking for very long. It's possible that Kapler will try newly acquired outfielder Corey Dickerson in the leadoff spot.

"I knew that it was going to be a blow," Kapler said of losing McCutchen. "I don't think you can discount how good he was at the top of our lineup. And it wasn't just about the hits. He was so good at determining a ball vs. a strike and so disciplined about not going out of his game plan or his approach. What that led to is a guy at the top of the lineup who made pitchers tired. We just haven't been able to replace that."

All is not lost, though. With Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, Segura, Kingery, Dickerson, and eventually Jay Bruce, the Phillies have enough players with track records to produce runs. Bruce is expected to return from a rib cage muscle injury possibly by this weekend.

“You can find some comfort in the fact that we haven’t all clicked at the same time,” Hoskins said. “It’s going to happen. It’s just a matter of time before we all are ourselves at the same time. When that happens, it’s obviously going to be pretty scary. Hopefully, obviously sooner than later, but we’ll be excited for when it does happen.”