The Phillies’ season is slipping away but Rhys Hoskins is an anchor | Marcus Hayes
If things break right they can ride the Hoss to the postseason, because he seems to be recession-proof.
Furious over the Phillies’ collapse? Fretting about their future? Relax. Rhys Hoskins is your remedy.
Ninety games into his 13-year, $330 million contract, Bryce Harper has proven to be more style than substance. Only one of the four back-end starters, Zach Eflin, has displayed the sort of competence Matt Klentak anticipated when he rebuilt the roster last winter. The bullpen has been crippled by injury and incompetence.
Six weeks ago, the Phillies were 11 games over .500 with a 3 1/2 game lead in the National League East. But they exit the All-Star break Friday having gone 14-21 since, trailing the Braves by 6 1/2 games and the Nationals by a half-game, and clinging to the last wild-card slot by their bamboo-tortured fingernails.
What is most striking about this assemblage of respectable talent -- because that’s all it ever was -- is neither the second straight season of second-tier stardom from Harper, nor the continued decay of pseudo-ace Jake Arrieta, nor the predictable woes of the rest of the pitching staff, nor the six-week swoon that brought shortstop Jean Segura back to Earth.
What’s most striking about this season is that, amid all of this rubble, that Hoskins is getting better. If the Phillies hope to make a run at the playoffs, they’ll ride their 6-foot-4, 225-pound Hoss.
It’s astounding how quickly Hoskins, in just his second full season, has become an assumption. Maybe that’s because Hoskins didn’t enjoy the years of minor-league hype that surrounded J.P Crawford and Dominic Brown. He should have. In a town spoiled by the precocious presences of Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, Sixers center Joel Embiid, and Flyers goalie Carter Hart, Hoskins might turn out to be the best among them. At any rate, he is special and should be appreciated as such.
In an offense that ranks 10th in OPS -- an offense built around his big, right-handed bat -- he’s been given little protection, yet he continues to produce. His .263 average and .931 OPS would be career highs if the season ended today. His 20 home runs project to 36 for the season, and his 59 RBI project to 106, and his 68 walks, which lead the National League, project to 122, and those would all be career highs, too.
Granted, his career is only 292 games deep, but the point is that, in a lineup that is underachieving, he is not. He’s improving. He didn’t deserve to be an All-Star, but he doesn’t deserve to be ignored, either. He’s the best hitter in a playoff lineup.
With this roster, or even with one improved by a deadline deal or two, a trip to the playoffs likely wouldn’t last much more than a week. That’s to be expected from a developing team. Meanwhile, Hoskins provides plenty of reason for hope. He should generate as much excitement as a young Mike Schmidt, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, or Bryce Harper, for that matter. In fact, through their first three Major League seasons, only Howard produced better numbers than Hoskins has.
Comparing eras always is an imperfect exercise. Considering the eye-popping pace at which hitters are mashing homers these days -- inflated by smaller parks, bigger muscles, cookie-cutter swings, and faster pitches -- perhaps Hoskins’ 20 dingers at the break aren’t as impressive as they might have been even 10 years ago. But he’s moving forward. That’s significant.
It also should be noted that Harper debuted when he was 19, while Hoskins debuted at 24 -- just like Utley and Howard. Schmidt was almost 23.
The All-Star break resets the baseball season, so what should be a reasonable expectation for the Phillies? Well, if they don’t add significant starting pitching, which seems unlikely, and if Harper doesn’t heat up, which seems equally improbable, they’ll win about 88 games. They’ll win that many games because the bullpen will get healthy, Aaron Nola is a true No. 1 pitcher, and Rhys Hoskins is the anchor.
It’s been nice to watch miscast outfielder Scott Kingery blossom in his second season, and he’ll be an All-Star if Klentak and manager Gabe Kapler ever concede to common sense and play Kingery at second base, where he is a wizard. It’s been pleasant to watch Jay Bruce resurrect his career since he landed in Philly in a one-sided trade.
But it’s been a downright joy to witness Hoskins toil in the cleanup spot on a team whose No. 3 hitters have compiled a .244 average, third-worst in the league, and a .340 on-base percentage, which is just ninth in the league. The Phillies signed Harper to yoke with Hoskins, to feature his ferocious lefty bat in a terrifying 3-4 sequence.
It, indeed, has been something of a horror show, but not as they intended. Harper is second in the league with 105 strikeouts, a 189-K pace, which would shatter his previous career high of 169, set last season in the Nationals’ stacked lineup. That’s a disturbing trend.
Trends sometimes turn. What if Harper stops whiffing on fastballs? What if Kapler rewards Bruce -- a left-handed hitter batting .291 with 10 homers and 29 RBI in his 28 games with the Phillies -- by moving him from sixth to fifth in the order?
You’d see Hoskins go on a tear, that’s what. He’d finish with 40 homers and 120 RBI, an OPS approaching 1.000. The team would win 90 games and likely earn that wild card spot. Hoskins would get MVP votes.
Maybe then we’d appreciate him a little more.
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