What to make of the Phillies’ 0-3 start: Three reasons to try to explain a stumble at the start

ARLINGTON, Texas — On Sunday night, after falling to the Texas Rangers for the third time in three games, Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber was asked about the energy in the clubhouse following a season-opening sweep.

“Would I say people are upset? Sure, yeah,” Schwarber said. “Who wouldn’t be upset after getting swept in your first series? But nobody is pouting around or anything like that. It’s upset in a good way, right? We want to be better and we’ve got a good challenge coming up here tomorrow.”

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They are upset because they care, and they aren’t alone. The Phillies’ three losses were each uniquely excruciating. Game 1 on Thursday featured an Aaron Nola meltdown in the fourth inning. Game 2 on Saturday featured a home plate umpire who missed pivotal calls in crucial moments and a Phillies bullpen that unraveled in the later innings. Game 3 on Sunday might have been the most excruciating of all because it seemed entirely winnable. The pitching was there, but the Phillies didn’t hit. They went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position in a 2-1 loss.

Schwarber did not expect the Phillies to begin their season 0-3. Few did. The Phillies don’t just want to return to the World Series, they want to win it. So what should we make of this putrid start? Maybe nothing. But here are three reasons we might be seeing what we’re seeing — one for each loss.

The Phillies came into spring training focused on a singular mission. The phrase “two more wins” was thrown around after losing in the World Series to the Houston Astros in six games. It was obvious that their heads were in the right place, but it’s also possible that they were dealing with some fatigue, particularly on the mound (more on that later).

Ballplayers are creatures of habit, and this offseason was anything but typical. The Phillies didn’t just play into November; their winters featured more appearances and obligations than any in recent memory. This isn’t a new phenomenon. In 2013, the Boston Red Sox won the World Series. The next year, they started the season 4-6 and finished last in the AL East at 71-91. Fresh off their World Series win in 2021, the Atlanta Braves started 5-5 last season won the NL East at 101-61.

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The teams that are able to withstand a World Series hangover are often the teams with the most depth. A few weeks after their 5-5 start, the Braves called up Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom and, eventually, Spencer Strider. The Dodgers, who won the World Series in 2020, have one of the deepest rosters in baseball, and their start to the 2021 season reflected that. They went 8-2 through their first 10 games.

The Phillies have better depth than they did in previous seasons, but not like that of the Braves and Dodgers.

Between the regular season and the postseason, Nola threw 230⅔ innings in 2022, a career-high. Zack Wheeler threw 188⅔ innings — a lower figure than Nola’s only because he missed a month’s worth of starts due to forearm tendinitis. Ranger Suárez threw 170 innings in 2022, a career-high.

Nola, Wheeler and Suárez still had to report to spring training in mid-February, just like every other pitcher and catcher in MLB, but had vastly less time to recover. During the winter meetings, manager Rob Thomson and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski conceded that the process of building pitchers up after a deep playoff run can be tricky.

“In New York [with the Yankees], when we were going [to the playoffs] every year, we’d say, ‘OK, let’s go easy on the starters,’” Thomson said. “Well, it ended up that they weren’t ready for the start of the season. And weren’t built up properly. They started the season but they were at 70 pitches or something. That really takes a toll on your bullpen. So, now they’re backed up. Your pitchers need to pitch.”

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Said Dombrowski: “One year we did that and it was a disaster. We were too cautious. A good friend of mine, Jim Leyland, said, ‘Dave, pitchers pitch. They need to pitch. They’re capable of doing it. They’ve had November off, December off, January off, half of February off. So, they pitch.’ And generally, that’s what I’ve found. Sometimes you’re too careful, and all of a sudden you’re 2-10 to start the season and you never get out of it. So it’s a balance. I don’t think you’re going to go the other way and throw three innings and 45 pitches the first time out, either.”

Wheeler and Nola have said all spring that they feel physically fine. But it should be noted that Wheeler threw no more than 66 pitches and 4⅓ innings in a Grapefruit League game this spring. Nola reached 78 pitches in his second-to-last start of the spring but was in the 30-50 range in his other starts. Bailey Falter hit around the 60-pitch mark in three of his six Grapefruit League starts — fewer pitches than Wheeler and Nola but a greater all-around workload. Neither Nola nor Wheeler reached five innings in a Grapefruit League start.

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Falter was also more rested than Wheeler and Nola. He pitched just 84 regular-season innings along with 41 at Lehigh Valley in 2022, and two-thirds of an inning in the postseason. Perhaps that is why he was able to go deeper on Sunday than Nola and Wheeler in the first two games of the series. Like Thomson and Dombrowski conceded, it’s a tough balance.

This won’t be satisfying to read after an 0-3 start, but baseball can be an incredibly random sport. The best team doesn’t always win — just look at the 87-win Phillies who were crowned National League champions last year. Some of what we saw this past weekend could have been due to factors out of the Phillies’ control.

There was some bad luck on balls in play. Jake Cave made hard contact on balls that did not fall for hits. Schwarber hit a flyout that traveled 416 feet on Sunday that would have scored two runs. It would have been a home run in 26 of 30 MLB ballparks.

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And, of course, who can forget plate umpire C.B. Bucknor on Saturday afternoon? According to umpire scorecards, Bucknor’s mistakes tacked 2.63 runs on the board for Texas in its 16-3 win. The Phillies’ bullpen did enough damage on its own in the later innings, but perhaps it wouldn’t have unraveled quite as spectacularly if Bucknor had been more consistent with his strike zone.

All of this is to say that yes, an 0-3 start is not what you want. But it is way too soon to panic.

After winning the pennant and getting all the way to Game 6 of the Series last year, the Phillies are back to finish the deal. The home opener of the 141st season in franchise history is set for Thursday at Citizens Bank Park — and The Inquirer will have it covered. Join Phillies/MLB reporter Scott Lauber and staff writer Matt Breen as they host Gameday Central starting at 1:30 p.m. at inquirer.com/philliesgameday.