Bryson Stott, Ranger Suárez, and Seranthony Dominguez will decide Phillies’ 2022 fate | David Murphy

Generally speaking, the probability of a team playing baseball in October is correlated to the number of times it uses the word “if” in March. The longer the list of things that need to break right, the longer the odds of a berth in the playoffs. Subtract a few extra points if that list includes Matt Moore.

In baseball, you are better off building your castle with clouds and sand than preseason what-ifs.

We learned that last year, didn’t we? When spring training broke, the Phillies could point to all sorts of contingencies that would leave them with something other than a mediocre roster that spent the season running to stand still in the National League race.

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Were they legitimate contenders for the NL East crown? Sure, if Spencer Howard blossomed into the pitcher scouts said he could be, and Moore brought back to the majors what he found in Japan, and Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm entered April as the hitters they’d exited September. Otherwise, the Phillies were looking at somewhere between 78 to 85 wins. As it turned out, they landed exactly at the midpoint.

Good news, then. The list for 2022 is not any shorter than it was a year ago, but the starting point is higher, and the best-case scenarios are far less far-fetched. Like 2021, the Phillies are more likely to enter September fighting for the playoffs than preparing for a World Series run. Unlike 2021, you don’t need a sweat lodge to envision the latter.

This year, the upside resides in the kids. They break down into two groups, separated by a combination of probability in payoff.

Group 1: Ranger Suárez, Seranthony Dominguez, Bryson Stott

Group 2: Mickey Moniak, Matt Vierling, Alec Bohm

Together, they represent four positions: Shortstop, No. 3 starter, closer, center field. To win the division, the Phillies need three of those four to not be liabilities. To contend for a title, they need two of the three non-liabilities to be legitimate strengths.

Let’s start with our premises:

» READ MORE: How a black journal helped Mickey Moniak earn a spot on the Phillies’ opening-day roster

The follow-up questions:

Judging by the sum of its parts, yes. The Phillies enter 2022 with six players who finished last season with an on-base-plus-slugging-plus (OPS+) of 110 and four players who hit at least 27 home runs (minimum 500 plate appearances). That’s a rarity. Last year, only one team in the majors had six players record an OPS+ of at least 110 (min. 500 PAs). That team, the Astros, won 101 games and an AL championship. Last year, two teams had four players hit at least 27 home runs. One of them, the Braves, won the World Series. The other, the Blue Jays, won 91 games.

In Bryce Harper (35 HRs, 179 OPS+), Kyle Schwarber (32/148), Nick Castellanos (34/136), Hoskins (27/129), J.T. Realmuto (17/110), and Jean Segura (14/111), the Phillies will have six of the nine spots in their lineup stocked by hitters who can make life miserable for opposing pitchers. To get a further idea of how they compare to the rest of the majors, I looked at each team’s projected rosters (per FanGraphs.com) and tallied up their 2021 numbers. The Phillies’ combined .797 OPS ranked first in the NL and second in the majors. Over the last 10 seasons, 10 of the 13 teams that finished with a .797 OPS made the playoffs.

Plenty big. Each of the three teams that missed the playoffs with a .797+ OPS did it in the last three seasons. Toronto was a bit of a fluke last year: the Blue Jays allowed the fourth fewest runs in the AL and won 91 games, three more than the eventual World Series champion Braves. But the 2019 Red Sox and 2020 Mets were both plagued by abysmal pitching staffs. Given Zach Eflin’s injury history and Kyle Gibson’s struggles late last season, the Phillies have two potential holes in their rotation.

Likewise, the bullpen is as unsettled as it always seems to be. In Jose Alvarado and Jeurys Familiar, they have a couple of big arms whose penchant for putting batters on base makes them inherently volatile. In Corey Knebel, they have a pitcher who gave the Dodgers elite setup-level production in 23 relief appearances last season, but who has only logged 29 innings over the last three seasons.

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In Brad Hand, they have a dependable veteran with closing experience. Factor in Sam Coonrod and Connor Brogdon, the latter of whom posted a 2.33 ERA with 22 strikeouts and six walks over his last 27 innings in 2021, and the Phillies have a lot more depth and a lot more things that can break right than they did last year. But there’s no more certainty than there has been in the past, and just as much that can break wrong.

Absolutely. After switching to the rotation last season, Suárez was one of the most dominant starters in the NL, striking out 65 batters in 65⅔ innings with just 19 walks and a 1.51 ERA. He ended the year with five straight starts of six-plus innings and two or fewer runs, including a complete game shutout. If he gives the Phillies 231 innings and a 1.32 ERA — his 32-start pace in those last five outings — they can make up the rest of it as they go. Unlikely, sure. But the potential is clearly there.

Same goes for Dominguez, who has looked sharp this spring and appears to be fully recovered from his two-and-a-half year elbow odyssey. A huge unknown? Yes. But if he can return to his rookie form — a 2.95 ERA, 16 saves, 74 strikeouts in 58 innings — the Phillies will have a legitimate closer and allow Joe Girardi to work his Yankees-era magic with the rest of the staff. Remember, Dominguez is only 27 years old.

I’m generally in favor of teams doing whatever they can within the rules to maximize a player’s pre-free agency years. You might refer to it as service time manipulation. Whatever the case, the Phillies would be fools to keep Stott off the opening-day roster. Right now, it’s far more likely that the Phillies would rank last in offensive production at third base, shortstop and center field than rank even middle-of-the-pack. That’s how bad Didi Gregorius, Bohm and the center fielders du jour were last season.

» READ MORE: How one ‘little adjustment’ has turned around the Phillies’ outlook on Mickey Moniak

You can take Moniak’s spring training to the bank if you want, but Stott remains the Phillies’ best chance at adding a seventh quality major-league hitter to the six veterans we mentioned earlier. The scouts consider him a potential star, and he has looked like one at every professional level he has played, including a .581 on-base percentage in 31 Grapefruit League plate appearances. If he can give the Phillies even 75% of what he’s given in the minors, it would pay such huge dividends that the only sensible option is to find out. You can always send him down.

The Phillies are a better team than they were last year, when they won 82 games. The concerns at the bottom of the lineup and the rotation and throughout the bullpen are significant enough to warrant their current Vegas over/under of 86.5 wins.

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But the ceiling is as high as it has been — and as easy to envision — as it has been since the end of their last era of greatness. In Stott, Suarez and Dominguez, they have three young players whose pedigree and track records warrant hope that the Phillies can finish the season in legitimate contention. If all of them are at least average, and one of them stars, you’ll feel really good about September once it arrives.

The ifs are still there. But the list is a lot shorter, and its potential is as tantalizing as it has been in some time.