Our 2023 predictions for the Phillies and MLB: Will there be a World Series victory parade in Philly?
The Inquirer’s baseball insiders make their predictions for the Phillies, the division, the playoffs and World Series along with individual awards.
A year ago at this time, no one, including us, predicted what was ahead for the Phillies for the 2022 season.
A fired manager (OK, some saw that one coming). An epic revival under an interim skipper that led to the Phillies’ first playoff appearance since 2011. And a postseason run that energized the city and came within two wins of a World Series title.
So what’s in store for the encore?
The Inquirer’s baseball insiders make their predictions for the Phillies, the division, the playoffs and World Series along with individual awards.
How many games will the Phillies win?
Scott Lauber: 90
Alex Coffey: 91
Matt Breen: 92
David Murphy: 91
Marcus Hayes: 95
Will the Phillies make the playoffs?
Lauber: Yes. It will take another second-half push, fueled this time by Bryce Harper’s return and Andrew Painter’s arrival, but they will snag a wild card and get back to the dance.
Coffey: Yes. They won’t finish first in the division, but once Harper and Painter return, they’ll make a push to finish second in the NL East.
Breen: Yes. Once again, the expanded playoffs make the road to October easy to see.
Hayes: Yes. They’ll stay close until Harper returns, then they’ll bury the Mets for second place in the NL East.
Murphy: Yes. The big difference between this year’s teams and previous years will be them taking care of business against the teams they should beat all season.
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If so, will they win the NL East?
Lauber: No. The Braves are still the Braves, and until further notice, they remain the class of the division.
Coffey: No. The powerhouse Braves will take first place. But the Phillies have a legitimate shot at second place, especially now that the Mets are down a closer in Edwin Diaz.
Breen: No. They win their most games since 2011, but that’s just enough to finish second in the division behind the Braves.
Hayes: No. The Braves will win 100 games again, but the Phillies will take the second wild-card slot.
Murphy: No, but they have a better shot at this year as they’ve had since 2011.
If so, how far will they advance?
Lauber: NLDS. They will outduel the Mets in an epic wild-card series, but the loaded Padres will avenge last year’s NLCS loss in the divisional round.
Coffey: World Series. The mantra in the clubhouse this year has been “two more wins,” and the Phillies are built to win those two games better than they were last season.
Breen: Broad Street. Last year’s National League champions are even better. They need the back of their rotation to hold up through the year and then the rebuilt bullpen will carry them in October. If so, they’re the world champs.
Hayes: Divisional round: They will lose to the Dodgers after sweeping the Brewers in the wild-card round.
Murphy: NLCS. Repeating is hard.
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Which Phillies starting pitcher will have the most strikeouts?
Lauber: Aaron Nola (225)
Coffey: Aaron Nola, 235
Breen: Aaron Nola, 230
Murphy: Aaron Nola, 216
Hayes: Zack Wheeler, 240
Who will have the lowest ERA among Phillies regular starters?
Lauber: Zack Wheeler (2.76)
Coffey: Zack Wheeler (2.70)
Breen: Aaron Nola (2.75)
Murphy: Zack Wheeler (3.01)
Hayes: Ranger Suárez (2.25)
» READ MORE: Top 10 things to know about the 2023 Phillies
Who will lead the Phillies in home runs?
Lauber: Kyle Schwarber (42)
Coffey: Kyle Schwarber (47)
Breen: Kyle Schwarber (40)
Murphy: Kyle Schwarber (35)
Hayes: Kyle Schwarber (52)
Who will lead the Phillies in batting average?
Lauber: Trea Turner (.336)
Coffey: Trea Turner (.330)
Breen: Trea Turner (.337)
Murphy: Alec Bohm (.305)
Hayes: Nick Castellanos (.310)
» READ MORE: Baseball is speeding up in 2023, and new Phillie Trea Turner shows no signs of slowing down
Who will lead the Phillies in OPS?
Lauber: Bryce Harper (.985)
Coffey: Bryce Harper (.970)
Breen: Trea Turner (.980)
Murphy: Trea Turner (.910)
Hayes: Kyle Schwarber (1.002)
Who will have the best season — Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, or Brandon Marsh?
Lauber: Bohm
Coffey: Bohm
Breen: Stott
Murphy: Bohm
Hayes: Bohm
» READ MORE: Why Stott, Bohm and Marsh are keys to the Phillies making a big jump in 2023
Who will lead the Phillies in saves?
Lauber: Craig Kimbrel
Coffey: Seranthony Domínguez
Murphy: Seranthony Domínguez
Breen: Craig Kimbrel
Hayes: Craig Kimbrel
Which Phillie will finish highest in MVP voting?
Lauber: Trea Turner
Coffey: Trea Turner
Murphy: Trea Turner
Breen: Trea Turner
Hayes: Kyle Schwarber
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Who will be the NL MVP?
Lauber: Trea Turner
Coffey: Trea Turner
Murphy: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Breen: Trea Turner
Hayes: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
Who will win the NL Cy Young?
Lauber: Julio Urías, Dodgers.
Coffey: Spencer Strider, Braves
Murphy: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins
Breen: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins
Hayes: Justin Verlander, Mets
» READ MORE: Our favorite American League win total predictions
Who will be the NL rookie of the year?
Lauber: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks.
Coffey: Jordan Walker, Cardinals
Murphy: Kodai Senga, Mets
Breen: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
Hayes: Jordan Walker, Cardinals
Who will be the AL MVP?
Lauber: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
Coffey: Shohei Ohtani
Breen: Shohei Ohtani
Hayes: Shohei Ohtani
Murphy: Yordan Alvarez, Astros
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Who will win the AL Cy Young?
Lauber: Alek Manoah, Blue Jays
Coffey: Jacob deGrom, Rangers
Breen: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Murphy: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Hayes: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
Who will be the AL rookie of the year?
Lauber: Anthony Volpe, Yankees
Coffey: Anthony Volpe, Yankees
Murphy: Anthony Volpe, Yankees
Breen: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
Hayes: Anthony Volpe, Yankees
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Who will win the World Series, over which team?
Lauber: Padres over Astros
Coffey: Phillies over Astros
Breen: Phillies over Yankees
Hayes: Yankees over Dodgers
Murphy: Dodgers over Astros