Kyle Schwarber is still the Phillies’ best leadoff choice

Rob Thomson still has seven weeks before he must jot names on a lineup card, 12 until he writes down a batting order for a game that counts. Yet one question is lingering near the surface of the Phillies manager’s cerebral cortex.

Will Kyle Schwarber stay in the leadoff spot?

“I don’t know yet,” Thomson said before the holidays. “In my mind, I’m bouncing around a lot of things.”

» READ MORE: Aaron Nola and then ...? What’s next for the Phillies as the offseason enters 2024

OK, this isn’t a new topic. Schwarber’s place atop the order is often debated because he neither looks nor plays like a traditional leadoff hitter. And in the midst of an uneventful offseason — the Phillies haven’t made a major-league roster move since re-signing Aaron Nola for $172 million on Nov. 19 while signaling an intention to run it back with the group that was one victory from returning to the World Series before dropping Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS at home — we seamheads need something to talk about.

Thomson could have ended this particular conversation by committing to Schwarber as the opening-day leadoff man. Although Schwarber batted .197 last season, he did bang 34 home runs, slug .493, and reach base at a .345 clip out of the top spot in the order — and the Phillies played to a 94-win pace (63-45) in those games. In 2022, he hit 38 homers, slugged .506, and the Phillies went 69-54 with him as the table setter.

But Thomson conceded that he’s at least open to moving Schwarber into a run-producing role, even though all the top leadoff alternatives — Trea Turner; Bryson Stott; Bryce Harper? (OK, probably not) — are unchanged.

“That’s not out of the question,” Thomson said. “We’ll have a lot of conversations before the season starts.”

Once it does, Thomson seeks consistency in all things. Known for his steady hand, he believes frequent tinkering with the batting order comes off in the clubhouse as lacking confidence. He doesn’t want that.

But in the beginning of January, there’s no need for a manager to decide on much of anything, especially which hitter takes the first cuts on opening day, so Thomson will keep his mind open.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto revealed their challenges in breaking through in Japan

Why even consider messing with something that works? Because absent drastic roster changes, the Phillies must find ways to make the offense more multidimensional and less susceptible to sudden icy-cold spells.

The Phillies are built to slug. They ranked third in the National League last season with 220 homers, including 59 in August, a club record for one month. Six players (Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Turner, Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Alec Bohm) went deep at least 20 times.

But more than half of the Phillies’ homers came with the bases empty. And when they didn’t launch the ball out of the park, they often had difficulty scoring runs, a problem that was highlighted in the NLCS. They hit nine homers and scored 21 runs in three victories over the Diamondbacks; in four losses: two homers and nine runs.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper is committed to Philly. How much will it cost the Phillies to keep him here forever?

Schwarber was neither the sole nor even the primary culprit. But if the Phillies want to achieve a different look with the same personnel, getting more speed and contact at the top of the order would be one way to go.

“When we ended up putting [Schwarber] back in the leadoff spot, we started to score runs, we started to win games, so we kept him there,” Thomson said. “But that doesn’t mean that, when we start the season, that we necessarily have that lineup the same way.”

If you still think a leadoff hitter should run like Rickey Henderson (or Kenny Lofton, or Juan Pierre, or Ichiro Suzuki), then Turner is straight out of central casting.

Not only is Turner the only player in baseball with at least 25 stolen bases in every full season since 2016, he also has an 86.6% success rate on steal attempts. And he’s among the five fastest runners in the majors at 30.3 feet per second, according to Statcast.

But after reaching base at a .359 clip from 2016 to 2021, Turner’s on-base percentage slid to .343 with the Dodgers in 2022 and .320 last season with the Phillies. He has drawn more than 50 walks in a season once, not since 2018. His strikeout rate, meanwhile, has risen from 17.8% from 2016 to 2021 to 18.5% in 2022 and a career-high 21.7% last year.

» READ MORE: What the shortstop aging curve means for the Phillies’ 11-year contract with Trea Turner

Thomson believes the Phillies offense works best when Turner bats second and seems inclined to leave him there, especially if Harper continues to hit in the No. 3 spot.

Stott might be a more likely choice. He led off in college at UNLV and also in the minors. He did it for 39 games early last season, while Turner struggled and Schwarber was needed in the middle of the order before Harper returned from Tommy John elbow surgery.

The results were mixed. Stott batted .253 with three homers but had a .290 on-base percentage, far off his .329 season total.

Maybe Thomson will try it again. Stott does have leadoff-hitting traits, from a knack for making contact to seeing pitches (4.17 per plate appearance last season). He’s also a smart baserunner. In addition to going 31-for-34 in steal attempts, he took more than one base on a single or two bases on a double 49% of the time while making only four outs on the bases.

And because Stott is a left-handed hitter, Thomson could alternate lefties and righties throughout much of the order. Here’s one potential configuration:

But for that to work, Stott must prove he can reach base at a consistent rate. After opening last season with a 17-game hitting streak in which he batted .382/.390/.500, his on-base percentage was only .320.

Schwarber, by contrast, had a .343 on-base percentage despite getting 49 fewer hits than Stott and hitting 83 points lower.

Maybe, then, Schwarber remains the Phillies’ best choice to get the offense started. Because while he doesn’t always fit the classic description of a leadoff hitter, the role is evolving across baseball.

Before 2017, there were 14 instances of a leadoff hitter producing a 30-homer season. Since then, there have been 18. Ronald Acuña Jr. hit 41 homers out of the leadoff spot for the Braves last season, while the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts hit 39. Marcus Semien, George Springer, and Francisco Lindor put up big power numbers. Strikeout-prone Joc Pederson, an atypical leadoff hitter, bashed 33 homers atop the order for the Dodgers in 2019.

For all of his Paul Bunyan strength and light-tower power, Schwarber ranks second in the majors in walks (212) and pitches per plate appearance (4.29) since the start of the 2022 season. Such patience is valued in a leadoff hitter of any shape, size, or batting average.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ brass have a Johan Rojas question, but they’ve faced a similar dilemma before

With more walks (126) than hits (115) last season, it could even be argued that Schwarber is a greater asset in the leadoff spot than lower in the order. And he’s clearly comfortable in the role.

“It’s a fun thing when you’re walking up to the plate and, next thing you know, 46,000 people are getting on their feet and ready to rock-and-roll,” Schwarber said during the playoffs. “You’re looking to set a tone. If that’s a home run, if it’s a walk, a single, whatever it is, to try to get on base for these guys behind me.”

» READ MORE: Why Dealin' Dave Dombrowski is comfortable running back the core of the Phillies’ roster in 2024

There’s a lot for Thomson to consider. But the more he thinks about it, the more he comes back to the same thing.

“One thing that you can’t argue is that when Schwarber’s at the top of the lineup, we’ve won a lot of games,” Thomson said. “I don’t know how to really get away from that.”

Maybe the Phillies shouldn’t.