Are the Phillies better than last season? How they stack up in a loaded National League.
Dave Dombrowski likes his team, and talent evaluators agree, even without making a big offseason move. But the NL got better, and it was already stacked in 2024.
If the Phillies are finished making offseason moves — and given where the payroll stands, it’s a decent bet — there’s only one question left before pitchers and catchers report to camp in five weeks.
Is the roster better now than at the end of last season?
“I think we’re as good,” Dave Dombrowski said recently. “I mean, we are pretty good.”
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By his standards, Dombrowski’s fifth offseason as the Phillies’ president of baseball operations has been uneventful. But the team did win 95 games and the NL East last season, and had roughly $250 million in 2025 salary commitments before making any additions.
The Phillies explored various trade scenarios in an attempt to alter the mix of the lineup. Ultimately, Dombrowski focused on the edges of the roster and the pitching staff, in particular, signing free-agent reliever Jordan Romano, outfielder Max Kepler, and swingman Joe Ross to one-year contracts and trading for lefty starter Jesús Luzardo.
Last season, the newcomers totaled 2.3 wins above replacement for their respective teams, according to Fangraphs, slightly less than what the Phillies got from their four free agents: relievers Jeff Hoffman (2.0) and Carlos Estévez (0.2), swingman Spencer Turnbull (0.7), and outfielder Austin Hays (-0.1).
But the Phillies are betting on bounce backs from Romano, Kepler, and Luzardo, who combined for 7.8 Fangraphs’ WAR in 2023 before being derailed by injuries last year. Romano closed at an All-Star level for the Blue Jays, while Luzardo started Game 1 of the Marlins’ 2023 wild-card series against the Phillies.
So, no, the Phillies didn’t counterbalance the tendency of many of their hitters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. And they will probably need an in-season addition for the bullpen. (Dombrowski picked up a reliever at three of the last four trade deadlines: Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, and Estévez.)
All along, though, the reality was that the Phillies’ biggest moves for the 2025 roster, with its projected luxury-tax payroll outlay of $306 million, were made in previous winters. For at least another season, they will go as far as the existing core takes them.
“I’ve never been good at those proclamations throughout my career, but I think we have a really good ballclub,” Dombrowski said. “I think you can always get better, and we’ll look to get better. But I do like our club, yes.”
The industry tends to agree. As one NL talent evaluator put it recently, the Phillies “are pretty firmly second behind the Dodgers — and they are closer to them than the third- and fourth-place teams are to the Phillies. Unless the Mets spend super-aggressively and the Padres land Roki [Sasaki], I don’t know how anyone leaps the Phillies and Dodgers.”
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Whatever you think of the Phillies’ offseason, this is undeniable: The National League got better. And it was loaded last year.
Six of the top seven signed free agents went to NL teams. The market’s best hitter (Juan Soto) and pitcher (Corbin Burnes) switched leagues, just like outfielder Kyle Tucker in a trade. Sasaki, the pitching phenom from Japan, is favored to land with the Dodgers or Padres. Four of the top six luxury-tax payrolls, according to projections at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, belong to NL teams, with Phillies owner John Middleton joining Steve Cohen (Mets) and Guggenheim Partners (Dodgers) at the head of the big-spender club.
Over in the American League, the Yankees lost Soto but pivoted to Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams, and Paul Goldschmidt. Otherwise, a lot of teams still have a lot of work to do.
Here in the NL, the road to the pennant is more like a gauntlet. A look at the prime competition for the Phillies:
The gold standard
Never mind that the Dodgers made the playoffs for a 12th consecutive season and won the World Series. Or that four injured pitchers who were absent from the postseason rotation — Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and oh yeah, Shohei Ohtani — are due to return. (Clayton Kershaw has said he might come back in midseason, too.)
Why not add another multiple-time Cy Young Award-winning lefty?
In a classic case of the best getting better, the Dodgers cannonballed into free agency in November, signing Blake Snell for $182 million. They also brought back free-agent reliever Blake Treinen and slugger Teoscar Hernández, extended utilityman Tommy Edman, and signed outfielder Michael Conforto and touted Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim.
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Sasaki could be next. Or maybe free-agent closer Tanner Scott. Either way, the Dodgers aren’t done, despite a whopping $360 million luxury-tax payroll.
“I like the way the offseason’s played out, certainly,” manager Dave Roberts said last month at the winter meetings. “With what we’ve done so far, we’ve gotten better.”
Talk about a scary thought for the rest of the NL.
The division rivals
It took 12 years for the Phillies to reclaim the division crown, wresting it from the six-time champion Braves only to get upset in the playoffs by the surging Mets.
And here’s Soto, shuffling to Queens to rejoin the NL East intramural.
Fresh off a third-place AL MVP finish, the hitting savant is back in the division with a jaw-dropping 15-year, $765 million contract from Cohen (net worth: $21.3 billion, according to Forbes). Soto will join Francisco Lindor atop the lineup, with a reunion with free-agent bopper Pete Alonso reportedly still possible.
» READ MORE: Phillies’ response to the Mets signing Juan Soto: We’re still good, and remain ‘open-minded’ with moves
But although Cohen’s largesse enables the Mets to win any free-agent auction, president of baseball operations David Stearns clearly prefers short-term upside plays for pitching. The Mets brought back lefty Sean Manaea on a three-year, $75 million deal but passed on Burnes, Snell, and Fried at the top of the market.
Maybe the Mets can sell Sasaki on joining countryman Kodai Senga in New York. If not, they will probably go with an ace-less rotation (Manaea, Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, and reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes) and focus on beefing up the bullpen.
It has been a quiet winter for the Braves, who lost Fried and fellow starter Charlie Morton. But they will improve simply by getting healthy, and star right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. (knee surgery) and ace Spencer Strider (Tommy John elbow surgery) are expected back before the All-Star break. Besides, there’s plenty of offseason left for opportunistic president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — and several impact free agents, including multiple relievers.
Nobody doubts the Braves will be formidable again.
The small-market scrappers
Among the most aggressive teams in loading up the roster under late owner Peter Seidler’s stewardship, the Padres’ offseason has been dominated by a family feud, with Seidler’s widow suing his two brothers for control of the franchise.
Meanwhile, San Diego hasn’t signed a player to a major-league deal and reportedly could trade ace Dylan Cease or infielder Luis Arraez in a continuing effort to cut payroll.
But the Padres are also among the favorites to land Sasaki, their No. 1 target. Because he’s not yet 25, the righty is classified as an international amateur by MLB and can sign for only a few million dollars, leveling the playing field for small-market suitors. Sasaki also is close with Padres righty Yu Darvish.
» READ MORE: Dave Dombrowski’s ambitious goal for the Phillies: Balance winning it all with sustained success for years
The Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes in the division series before getting shut out in Games 4 and 5. There’s still time for them to emerge from the offseason with Sasaki and re-signing outfielder Jurickson Profar or infielder Ha-Seong Kim.
In Milwaukee, division titles are rarely connected to offseason splashes.
Last year, the Brewers traded Burnes, lost manager Craig Counsell to the rival Cubs, and still won 93 games and the NL Central. So, if you’re not sure how they will compete without Willy Adames (signed with the Giants) and Williams (traded to the Yankees), well, just watch.
Look out below
Here’s one way to move on from dropping five of your last seven games and being the odd-team out in a three-way race for two wild-card spots: buy an ace for $210 million.
The Diamondbacks landed Burnes on a six-year contract and placed him atop a rotation that includes holdovers Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez, and Brandon Pfaadt. And after first baseman Christian Walker signed with Houston, Arizona replaced him by trading for Josh Naylor from the Guardians.
As the Diamondbacks seek to contend again, the Giants turned to one of their all-time greats to steer them back to playoff relevance. Buster Posey took the reins as president of baseball operations and spent $182 million on Adames’ power and $15 million for Justin Verlander’s arm.
» READ MORE: J.T. Realmuto or … who? The Phillies will face a complex decision with their star catcher.
Off an 85-loss season, the Reds re-signed righty Nick Martinez, acquired starter Brady Singer from the Royals for infielder Jonathan India, then traded for Gavin Lux from the Dodgers to replace India and play next to shortstop Elly De La Cruz.
The Cubs haven’t made the playoffs in a full season since 2018 and seem to be going for it again. Trading for Tucker, with one year of club control, was a win-now move for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, entering the final year of his contract. After dumping Bellinger’s salary on the Yankees, there must be more to come in Chicago.
Among the growing number of NL contenders, there usually is.