Dave Dombrowski says Aaron Nola is the Phillies’ ‘priority’ in free agency; Bryce Harper’s decision key

The Phillies’ offseason will revolve around two key questions: the market for Nola and whether Harper wants to remain at first base.

Aaron Nola wants to come back. The Phillies want him back. But can they come to an agreement on a new contract?Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Oct. 26, 2023, 7:47 p.m. ET

It’s going to take a while for the haze to lift from one of the worst losses in Phillies history. But fewer than 48 hours after the final out was made, it had already become clear that the team’s offseason will hinge on two factors:

The market for Aaron Nola.
Bryce Harper’s positional preference.

Because in a 45-minute news conference Thursday, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters that it’s “our priority to try to sign” Nola, the homegrown righty who has made more starts (175) and logged the second-most innings (1,065) of any pitcher in baseball since 2018. He said the Phillies will be “aggressive” in pursuit of Nola, but also acknowledged the challenge inherent to winning any free-agent auction.

“Unfortunately we didn’t sign him in spring training,” Dombrowski said of extension talks with Nola that never came close to a deal. “We would’ve liked to have done that. We didn’t get it done. So, I can’t tell you I feel 100% confident we’re going to get it done [now]. But we would like to sign him, and we’ll be aggressive in trying to make that happen.”

Dombrowski also said the Phillies plan to meet with Harper, likely within the next 7-10 days, to discuss whether he wants to stay at first base or return to the outfield. Harper volunteered in April to learn first base and played 49 games there, including all 13 playoff games, adapting well to his adopted position.

Harper’s answer will have implications on the makeup of the lineup, including whether the Phillies look to re-sign first baseman Rhys Hoskins or potentially package an outfielder in a trade.

(Interestingly, manager Rob Thomson said in a separate news conference that Brandon Marsh has “a better chance” than Johan Rojas of being an everyday player next season, with Marsh’s struggles against left-handed pitching less pronounced than Rojas’ still-raw offensive skills. Dombrowski added that Rojas will have to win a spot in spring training.)

Regardless, much will depend on where Harper feels most comfortable.

“I don’t want to put it on Bryce. That’s something that we have to decide ourselves,” Dombrowski said. “We want his input because it’s his career and all, and then, we just have to adjust from there.”

If the Phillies succeed in their primary objective — bringing back Nola — Dombrowski suggested the offseason will consist of less heavy lifting, more fine-tuning. But Nola is expected to generate strong interest from several teams. He’s among the handful of top free-agent starters, joining lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and likely Japanese sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets are expected to be active in the starting pitching market in an attempt to contend next season after a disappointing 2022. Other pitching-needy clubs with money to spend (the Atlanta Braves and perhaps the Baltimore Orioles) may also be options for Nola.

Even after posting a 4.46 ERA and allowing 32 homers in a regular season that didn’t meet his standards, Nola remains among the most durable pitchers in the sport at a time when teams are asking less of starters. Thomson noted that Nola hasn’t missed a start for injury reasons since Thomson joined the organization in 2018.

Phillies owner John Middleton hasn’t shied away from long-term contracts that would be uncomfortable for other clubs. In addition to Harper’s 13-year deal, the Phillies signed Trea Turner to an 11-year contract. Nola, 30, will likely seek a six- or seven-year contract, especially after last offseason when the Yankees gave a six-year, $162 million deal to Carlos Rodón, who only once topped 175 innings in a season.

Dombrowski said he’d be “sad” if Nola winds up elsewhere. He’d also have to find an external solution to replace him. Top pitching prospect Andrew Painter is expected to miss all or most of next season after undergoing Tommy John elbow surgery. Mick Abel, the Phillies’ other pitching blue-chipper, needs to continue to improve his command after walking 62 batters in 108⅔ innings in double A.

“We love [Nola],” Dombrowski said. “He’s been tremendous for the franchise. He’s pitched very well for a number of years. He’s a Phillie. We hope to retain him. But if we don’t, to me, that would be our No. 1 area then we need to replace him. We’re not in position where we have somebody else that would be a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation.”

Beyond that, the Phillies will examine the composition of an offense that, for a second consecutive postseason, went from scorching hot to icy cold in an eyeblink. Dombrowski noted that some hitters, notably Turner and Nick Castellanos, reverted to chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Turner went 0-for-12 in the final three games of the NLCS; Castellanos was 0-for-23 with 11 strikeouts after a homer in Game 1.

But the Phillies also have $175.6 million already committed to 10 players. They have eight players eligible for salary arbitration. And they’re one year removed from reaching Game 6 of the World Series. Dombrowski made clear that he isn’t looking to overturn the roster, but rather to make tweaks that will help produce more than 90 regular-season victories and a return to the World Series.

“I’m not sure that it’s that simplistic because you just never know what’s going to happen, but I think if we do those things, we go into it being a World Series contender, yes,” Dombrowski said. “I think we have a very talented club. This is a good team. There’s a lot of star players on this team, and there’s good supporting players, too. I know any time you get beat, it’s a downer. But when you start looking through the haze, we have a good team. It’s not like our guys are still not in their prime.

“We have to address the starting pitching situation there, but if we do that, we’re in a position where, we can play. We’re good.”

It’s a plan that gets more complicated if the Phillies have to find a replacement for Nola.