Let’s play Phillies fact/fiction: Alec Bohm an All-Star? Aaron Nola a concern? Gregory Soto a bust?
A breakdown of the Phillies' 2023 outlook after an opening day loss to the Rangers, with Bohm leading the way.
The difficult thing about opening day is that it does not prove anything, but it’s all we have to go on. We learned that in 2022, just like we do every year. I still have the headline from last year’s season-opening win over the A’s seared in my brain.
The Phillies and their fans got what they paid for on an opening day of immense promise.
Two months later, they were seven games under .500 and firing their manager.
Five months after that, they were in the World Series.
» READ MORE: After getting a taste of the World Series, the Phillies are ready to go back: ‘It’s kind of addicting’
There are two lessons here. First and foremost, the next time you think that I was wrong about something, remember that I’m probably just operating on a different time horizon. Secondly, opening day is pretty much worthless as a leading indicator.
That’s not to say that that the Phillies’ 11-7 loss to the Texas Rangers on Thursday afternoon was completely meaningless. There’s a good chance that, six months from now, we’ll look back at this game and see plenty of things that foreshadowed the season to come. We just have no idea if the final score is one of those things. Think back two years ago, when the Phillies opened the 2021 season with a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves. Bryce Harper reached base seven times and hit two home runs and went on to win the NL MVP. Zack Wheeler struck out 10 in seven scoreless innings and went on to finish second in the NL Cy Young voting. But the Phillies went on to miss the playoffs, while the Braves went on to win the World Series.
So, where does that leave us now that the Phillies are 0-1 here in 2023?
It leaves us in need of a gimmick.
Allow me to introduce the Relevantometer (REL-e-van-TOM-eter), a handy device that detects elevated levels of relevance within opening day facts. The higher the number, the higher the probability that the performance in question will prove to be relevant within the big picture of the season. It’s like a Breathalyzer, except the arresting officer is the one who is drunk.
Shall we?
1. Fact: Aaron Nola hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in four straight starts dating back to last postseason. This, after having failed to do so just three times in his previous 34 starts.
Relevantometer: 4/10. My first thought was to dismiss this entirely. It’s no secret that when Nola unravels, he often does so in spectacular and immediate fashion. We’ve seen him do it on opening day before. In fact, in his last five season openers, 15 of the 17 runs he’s allowed have come in his last inning on the mound. You can argue that his propensity for big innings is the one thing standing between him and all-time great status. Do you know how many times Max Scherzer has had a start where he’s lasted less than five innings and allowed more than one run? Three times since 2016.
» READ MORE: Aaron Nola falls apart, as the Phillies begin 2023 how they left off last season — with another letdown in Texas
The Phillies don’t need Nola to be Scherzer. They need him to be Nola, and that’s exactly who he looked like for his first three innings. That said, they’ll be much better off if he’s the version of Nola who was on the mound last season versus the one from the season before. In 2021, he failed to make it through five innings in seven of his 32 starts, and he pitched less than six in 18. I don’t think his five-run meltdown in the fourth on Thursday is cause for too much alarm. But it is at least relevant in the sense that Rob Thomson probably shouldn’t err on the side of sticking with his guy the next time he sees Nola start losing his stuff as noticeably as he did against the Rangers. If that’s the fourth inning, so be it.
2. Fact: Gregory Soto has yet to retire a batter in a Phillies uniform after getting four chances at it against the Rangers.
Relevantometer: 2/10. The guy we saw in the fourth inning is kind of the guy Soto has been during his two All-Star seasons in Detroit. The Phillies didn’t acquire him for the zen-like consistency with which he operates. Last year, he had 10 outings in which he produced more baserunners than outs. He never allowed four-of-four to reach base like he did against the Rangers on Thursday, but he did allow three-of-three once, four-of-five twice, and five-of-seven once.
» READ MORE: Phillies counting on helping Gregory Soto like they did José Alvarado to form 1-2 lefty punch
It might take Thomson a little while to figure out how best to use Soto. He might end up being a guy who needs a whole inning. With men on base last year, he had nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (25). With runners in scoring position, opponents had a .441 on-base percentage, compared to .313 with the bases empty. He stranded eight of the 10 runners he inherited last season. Before that, though, he’d allowed 40% of them to score. The stuff looked good, and that alone is worth the price the Phillies paid. The pressure is on Thomson to figure out where he fits.
3. Fact: There’s a realistic chance that we end up talking about Alec Bohm as one of the best offensive third basemen in the game by the end of the season.
Relevantometer: 10/10. OK, that’s mostly an opinion, but I’ve been drinking so much of the Bohm Kool-Aid that I’m operating on a sugar high after watching him go 3-for-4 with a home run, a double, and three RBIs on opening day. The guy is a physical specimen who was a top-10 draft pick for a reason. Now, he’s got a really impressive confidence to go with it. At some point last postseason, he started exuding a positive energy that is impossible to ignore. Swagger is an important part of success at the big league level, and Bohm has it. Keep in mind, he hit .301 over the last three months of last season. If he matches that with the power we’ve seen all spring, look out. Jinx!
4. Fact: The Phillies probably won’t finish the season averaging seven runs per game. But they might come close. And they might need to.
Relevantometer: 8/10. Matt Strahm and Taijuan Walker might be the only ones standing in the way of the Phillies and complete disaster on the starting pitching front. Strahm looked really good in his one inning of work on Thursday. The big question is whether he can give them four or five such innings every five days, because Ranger Suárez might not be walking through that door until at least May and Andrew Painter probably won’t be beating him there. As for Walker, I feel the exact opposite about him as I do about Bohm. I have my doubts about how good he is going to be pitching in Citizens Bank Park. He might be a significant improvement over Kyle Gibson, but the Phillies are at a point where they need him to be a guy who gives them a significant edge in the pitching matchup in the majority of his starts. That could change if Suárez returns and is the same pitcher we saw at the end of last season. Right now, though, the rotation is a serious concern after Nola and Zack Wheeler.
» READ MORE: Meet the 2023 Phillies: Predictions, season projections for every player
That said, the Phillies offense has the potential to overcome even the shakiest of starts. If Bohm turns days like Thursday into the norm, the Phillies will have the best lineup in the game once Bryce Harper returns to health and if Nick Castellanos returns to his career norms.