MLB’s best rotation? Alec Bohm an All-Star? Buy or sell the top storylines from a 19-win Phillies April.
The Phillies are among the best teams in the NL, but how good are they? Let’s dive into a few key developments and decide if they have staying power.
ANAHEIM, Calif. — Alec Bohm stood on first base after banging another hit and driving in two more runs. He faced the dugout, pointed at a few teammates, smiled, and shimmied his shoulders.
It was a recurring image from the Phillies’ best April in modern franchise history.
“He’s hot,” manager Rob Thomson said Monday night. “I mean, he’s really swinging the bat well right now. He’s getting a lot of confidence. He’s a really good hitter right now.”
Sure, but will it last?
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That’s the question, not only about Bohm’s torrid start but everything else that has transpired through 30 games. One month is a sliver of a baseball season. It’s also the only evidence we have, other than players’ track records, to draw conclusions.
The Phillies are 20-11 after a 7-5 victory to the Angels on Tuesday and have won 12 of 15 games. They’ve set a franchise record for April victories (19), eclipsing the mark set by the 2011 team, which won the most games (102) in Phillies history.
It’s clear, then, that the Phillies are among the best teams in the National League. But you already knew that after a run to the World Series in 2022 and Game 7 of the NL Championship Series last year.
How good are they? And will the biggest storylines from April be talking points through the summer? Let’s dive into a few, and decide if we’re buying or selling.
The rotation: Best in baseball?
Through 30 games, the Phillies’ starters — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Spencer Turnbull, and Taijuan Walker — lead all rotations in innings (180⅓), strikeouts (185), and WHIP (0.99) and rank second in ERA (2.50) to only the Red Sox (2.07).
And while regression is inevitable, it doesn’t feel wholly unsustainable.
“They all have so many weapons that are so good that you can really pitch,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said. “It’s an older term, but literally it’s pitching, the art of pitching as it was meant to be. It’s not just, get two plus-pitches and blow the ball through the middle of the strike zone.”
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Indeed, Phillies starters rank 27th in the majors in average four-seam fastball velocity (92.6 mph). They also throw a lower percentage of four-seamers (15.2%) than all but five teams.
As a group, they tend to lean more on sinkers than most other rotations. But Suárez has used his curveball to right-handed hitters and changeup to lefties to get weak contact en route to a league-leading 1.32 ERA. Wheeler is dominating with his sweeper to righties and newly developed splitter to lefties. Nola’s five-pitch mix is as unpredictable as it gets.
Sánchez has the least experience and the biggest potential for variance, especially after struggling again Monday night to get a feel for his signature changeup. But there’s depth behind him. Walker returned Sunday from a spring-training shoulder injury after Turnbull, his stand-in, was a revelation with a 1.33 ERA in 27 innings.
Verdict: Buy.
Bohm: All-Star in the making?
When the Phillies play at home Saturday, the promotional giveaway for children under 14 will be a T-shirt that reads, “I love this place.” It’s a reference to Bohm’s infamous comment — and subsequent apology — in April 2022 after getting booed at Citizens Bank Park.
It’s also a reminder of how much better he has gotten since then.
The Phillies expected Bohm would be a solid major-league hitter when they drafted him third overall in 2018. He’s had flashes, including his impressive debut in 2020 and 20-homer, 97-RBI breakthrough last season. But the power has never matched with his 6-foot-5, 218-pound frame, and the cold spells have always lingered too long.
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Maybe now, at age 27, Bohm is finally putting it all together. Want to know the most impressive part of his .364/.439/.607 start? He has drawn nearly as many walks (15) as strikeouts (19). His walk rate (12.2%) has nearly doubled from his career mark (6.2%), a sign of maturity.
But Bohm has always had a knack for making contact and producing with runners on base. And his hard-hit rate (56%) is consistent with last season (55%) and even a tick lower than 2022 (67%). If anything, he’s pulling the ball to left field more often.
“It gets back to approach,” Thomson said. “He’s pulling breaking balls and hitting fastballs the other way. That’s what good hitters do. He’s stronger now than when he first signed. That’s all part of it.”
Can Bohm keep it up? Check back in another month or two.
Verdict: Hold.
Castellanos: A declining slugger?
Quick, name the worst player in baseball in April.
The answer, according to Fangraphs: Nick Castellanos.
Castellanos was worth 1.1 wins below replacement level, based on the Fangraphs calculation, worst among 182 qualifying players. Baseball-Reference’s measurement (minus-0.8) wasn’t much better. Through Tuesday, Castellanos was batting .193/.258/.263 with three extra-base hits (one triple, two homers) in 124 plate appearances. But he did deliver his biggest swing of the season on Tuesday with a home run to tie the game in the ninth inning.
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There are red flags in some of the underlying numbers. But here’s where it’s worth remembering that it’s been one month for a $20 million-per-year hitter whose hot and cold streaks tend to reach extremes. Consider this stretch from last season:
June: .351/.387/.567, 6 doubles, 5 homers, 106 plate appearances
July: .162/.194/.303, 2 doubles, 4 homers, 103 plate appearances
August: .298/.308/.552, 6 doubles, 8 homers, 120 plate appearances
It was straight out of Six Flags.
Castellanos likes to swing his way out of the slumps. He wants to play every game. Thomson has resisted the urge to sit him.
Maybe the Phillies should be wary. The guess here is it’s Castellanos being Castellanos.
Verdict: Sell.