Andrew Painter, Phillies’ No. 5 starter in 2023? It could happen. Just look to Rick Porcello.

If there were whispers, Rick Porcello didn’t hear them. Maybe he just tuned them out. Either way, a few months after turning 20, having pitched all of one season in the minors — in A-ball, no less — he figured there was absolutely no way that he would make the Detroit Tigers’ opening-day roster in 2009.

Right up until the moment when he did.

“I was just trying to stay in big-league camp as long as I could so I didn’t have to go down to minor-league camp but really thinking I was going to go to double A,” Porcello recalled by phone this week. “Even that last week of spring training, it was nice to still be there, but I was just happy that I made it as long as I had.”

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Porcello wound up not only winning a spot but also making 31 starts for the Tigers. Since then, only four pitchers have made 10 or more major-league starts in an age-19 or age-20 season: Madison Bumgarner in 2010, Jordan Lyles in 2011, José Fernández in 2013, and Julio Urías in 2016.

If things go according to plan for the Phillies, Andrew Painter will be next.

Never mind that Painter has pitched a total of 109⅔ innings in the minors since getting drafted 13th overall in 2021. Or that manager Rob Thomson has not yet watched him pitch in person. After posting a 1.56 ERA this season and being named Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Painter will attend major-league camp in February, with one Phillies official saying this week that he “will be shocked” if the 19-year-old phenom “isn’t our No. 5 starter coming out of spring training.”

If that sounds far-fetched, consider Porcello’s path — with a Tigers team that was run by now-Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski — as a precursor for the one that Painter will soon travel.

“The first day of spring training, [then-Tigers manager] Jim Leyland called a meeting with the entire team and said, ‘I don’t care what your contract looks like, I don’t care if you’ve got guaranteed money, I don’t care how much time you have in the big leagues. I can’t look every player in the eyes and expect them to trust me if I’m not taking the best 25 guys,’” said Porcello, who recently announced his retirement at age 33 after a 12-year career in which he won 150 games and a Cy Young Award in 2016. “He was true to his word.

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“Same thing with Dave Dombrowski. They were a tandem that, they were never messing around. Their goal was to win a World Series for the city of Detroit and [owner] Mr. [Mike] Ilitch, and they were going to do that with the best possible guys. It played out exactly like they said it would.”

Even though Porcello didn’t initially believe them.

Like Painter, Porcello got drafted out of high school in the first round. In 2008, his lone season in the minors, he pitched 125 innings and posted a 2.66 ERA for high-A Lakeland. The Tigers invited him to major-league camp the following spring.

Dombrowski has a history of fast-tracking young pitchers. With the Florida Marlins, he called up Josh Beckett at age 21. In Detroit, Jeremy Bonderman made his debut as a 20-year-old in 2003 and Justin Verlander as a 22-year-old in 2005. Dombrowski has drawn comparisons between Painter and Beckett.

But Porcello wasn’t a flamethrower like Beckett and Verlander — or for that matter, Painter, who brings upper-90s heat. Instead, he threw a bowling ball of a sinker that produced ant-killing grounders. Success would hinge on changing speeds, and Porcello knew he had to refine his changeup and slider.

Besides, the Tigers had veterans Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, and Zach Miner in camp to compete for the fifth-starter job.

“It just didn’t seem like they had a need for me,” Porcello said.

Porcello got the Tigers’ attention early in camp by demonstrating an improved changeup. He strung together a few solid spring-training outings. As his confidence grew, his stock rose, especially as Miner struggled, Robertson sprained his thumb, and Willis was sidelined by an anxiety disorder.

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Less than a week before opening day — on April Fool’s Day, notably — Leyland called Porcello and reliever Ryan Perry into his office. He praised them for a strong spring and said they were being sent to double-A Erie.

“Then he said, ‘I’m just kidding. You know what day it is, right?’” Porcello recalled. “He goes, ‘It’s April Fool’s. You’re going to be on the plane with us to Toronto.’ That was when it really set in, and even then, it hadn’t. It was such a surreal moment for me because I wasn’t expecting it.”

Porcello went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA for the Tigers, even starting a Game 163 tiebreaker on the road in Minnesota. He finished third in the American League Rookie of the Year voting.

There were moments of on-the-job training. He recalled his first start, when he got the Blue Jays’ Adam Lind to chase a curveball and decided to throw him another. Lind hit it over the center-field fence.

“That was an eye-opener for me,” Porcello said. “Where I’d come from in high-A, hitters were not making adjustments as quickly as those guys did.”

But Porcello mostly proved that he belonged in the majors and rewarded Leyland and Dombrowski for giving him the chance.

Fourteen years later, could Painter emerge similarly from a fifth-starter field that will include lefties Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez? Based on reports from the Phillies’ player-development staff, he may even be the favorite.

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“They just tell you how good this guy is and the makeup and the intangibles and the athleticism, all that stuff,” Thomson said. “And I’ve been watching a little bit of tape, and it’s real.”

The Phillies made it a priority to get Painter to the 100-inning mark in the minors this year. But what’s a realistic goal for 2023? If he opens the season in the major-league rotation, is there any way that he could be there at the end?

“We’ve been kind of bouncing around [innings] numbers a little bit,” Thomson said. “We have to be careful and make sure we don’t rush him too soon, don’t overwork him. It’s a different level of tension and anxiety from double A to spring training in the big leagues and then regular season. Completely different. So we’ll see how it works.”

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A potential blueprint: Hunter Greene made the Cincinnati Reds’ roster out of camp this year and pitched 125⅔ innings after throwing 106 in the minors in 2021. Seattle’s George Kirby made a larger jump, getting called up in May and working 130 innings for the Mariners after tossing only 67⅔ in the minors in 2021.

If the Tigers were concerned about Porcello’s workload in 2009, he wasn’t aware. Dombrowski noted this week that Porcello threw 170⅔ innings in 2009, a 36% increase from his 125-inning total a year earlier in A-ball.

Porcello said he benefited from being in a rotation with Verlander, who preferred to pitch every five days. There were a few instances when the Tigers used a scheduled off-day to skip Porcello’s turn and keep Verlander on his regular day. Porcello pitched on six days’ rest twice, nine days’ rest once, and got a 15-day layoff around the All-Star break.

“That really helped in giving me a breather during certain points in the year,” he said. “There’s a lot of discussion on what the right amount is and workloads, but in my humble opinion, it’s a mistake to classify everyone into a generalized workload because each individual is different.”

Porcello’s overriding advice to Painter: Don’t get ahead of yourself. And trust that the organization has your best interests in mind.

“It’s easy to think, ‘I’ve got five starts in spring training or seven starts. If I go out there and dominate, I’ve got a chance to make the team,’” Porcello said. “But that would get me way too out in front of what I needed to try to work on. Keep working on those things and trust that, at the end of it, wherever you end up, you’re going to be in a much better spot. And if you don’t make the big-league club, you’ve still got a chance to get called up during the season.

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“That’s the beauty of being a 19-year-old in spring training. Your age and time is on your side. You don’t have the same pressure as that guy that’s been banging around the minor leagues and is kind of on the verge of making the team or getting cut or being traded. I think it allows you to take a deep breath and take it all in stride.”