Phillies prospect rankings: Farm system is heavy on impact pitching, lacking major league-ready bats

A year ago, Preston Mattingly stood between two sun-soaked fields at the Phillies’ training complex in Clearwater, Fla., and defended the farm system he recently had been hired to lead.

“Our system,” he said, “is a lot deeper than people give it credit for.”

The verdict isn’t in yet. Mattingly has been on the job as director of player development for only 14 months, and most of the Phillies’ top minor-league talent is still concentrated on the pitching side and/or below the double-A level.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter, Phillies’ No. 5 starter in 2023? It could happen. Just look to Rick Porcello.

But the Phillies did graduate 2019 first-round draft pick Bryson Stott to an everyday role on a pennant winner last season. They used touted catcher Logan O’Hoppe in a deadline trade for young center fielder Brandon Marsh. And a high-ranking club official said last month he “will be shocked” if 19-year-old Andrew Painter “isn’t our No. 5 starter coming out of spring training.”

So, yes, the farm is finally, albeit slowly, becoming bountiful again.

“The good prospects, they are quality guys at the major-league level, but they’re so few and far,” one National League scout said. “They’ve done a good job with the pitching. I think their development has been good in that regard. There’s a lot of work to be done positionally.”

A farm system doesn’t improve overnight, and the Phillies placed only two prospects on Baseball America’s just-released top-100 list (Painter at No. 5; Mick Abel at No. 40). With spring training fast approaching, here’s The Inquirer’s annual take on the Phillies’ top 10.

Age: 19 (turns 20 on April 10)

Height: 6-foot-7 Weight: 215 pounds

2022 stats: 1.40 ERA, 46.3% K rate, 10.7% BB rate at low-A Clearwater (38⅔ IP); 1.72 ERA, 34.3% K rate, 4.9% BB rate at high-A Jersey Shore (36⅔ IP); 2.54 ERA, 33.9% K rate, 1.8% BB rate at double-A Reading (28⅓ IP).

» READ MORE: Will the Phillies’ Andrew Painter be the next teen phenom in 2023?

2023 outlook: A 19-year-old hasn’t pitched for the Phillies since Mark Davis in 1980. Painter would gain that distinction if he breaks camp with the team. Crazy? President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is known for fast-tracking pitchers, from Jeremy Bonderman and Rick Porcello at age 20 in Detroit to Josh Beckett at 21 in Florida. Painter has a breathtaking upper-90s heater, quality breaking stuff, a 118-to-9 strikeouts-to-walks ratio across high A and double A, and a new title: No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball based on a poll of team executives.

Key question: How many innings can he handle after going 103⅔ last year? If he starts the season in the majors, can he finish it?

Age: 21 (turns 22 on Aug. 18)

Height: 6-5 Weight: 190

2022 stats: 4.01 ERA, 27.7% K rate, 10.2% BB rate at Jersey Shore (85⅓ IP); 3.52 ERA, 27.3% K rate, 12.1% BB rate at Reading (23 IP).

» READ MORE: ‘Unreal’ double feature: Mick Abel and Andrew Painter offer glimpse of what could be for Phillies

2023 outlook: It’s natural to compare Abel and Painter. They were drafted one year apart in the first round out of high school and feature nearly identical four-pitch repertoires. In that context, Abel hasn’t measured up. But a gold medal-winning Olympic high jumper wouldn’t clear Painter’s bar. The Phillies believe Abel is progressing at a perfectly fine rate. He topped 100 innings last season and posted a 3.22 ERA in his last eight starts. His changeup is developing into a weapon, in addition to a late-breaking slider.

Key question: Can he sharpen his command by consistently repeating his delivery? It can be a challenge for tall, lanky pitchers.

Age: 23 (turns 24 on June 8)

Height: 6-2 Weight: 190

2022 stats: 3.86 ERA, 42.1% K rate, 12.3% BB rate at Jersey Shore (46⅔ IP); 2.20 ERA, 29.5% K rate, 15.2% BB rate at Reading (32⅔ IP); 9.00 ERA, 24.3% K rate, 24.3% BB rate at triple-A Lehigh Valley (8 IP).

2023 outlook: The 2021 fifth-round pick has a high-octane heater that can be untouchable. He actually throws three fastballs, including an upper-90s four-seamer from a lower arm slot. Control has been an issue since college at Virginia, so there’s always a compulsion to move him to the bullpen, an experiment the Phillies tried late last season. But with two promising off-speed pitches, they continue to view McGarry as a starter.

Key question: Can he continue reining in his walk rate, which has gone from 20.7% in college to 14.4% in the minors?

Age: 19 as of Jan. 13

Height: 6-3 Weight: 175

2022 stats: .297/.395/.351, 0 HR, 8-for-11 SB, 14% K rate, 11.6% BB rate in rookie ball (11 G); .143/.217/.143, 0 HR, 2-for-3 SB, 39.1% K rate, 8.7% BB rate at Clearwater (5 G).

2023 outlook: Crawford gets a slight nod over Johan Rojas based on bloodlines (his father is four-time All-Star Carl Crawford) and upside. Although both center fielders are above-average defenders and stolen-base threats, lefty-swinging Crawford is three years younger than Rojas and possesses a higher ceiling as a hitter. The 17th overall pick in the draft last summer got a taste of low-A ball and now will be tested in his first full season.

Key question: Will Crawford develop more power as he fills out? His dad did.

Age: 22 (turns 23 on Aug. 14)

Height: 6-0 Weight: 175

2022 stats: .230/.287/.325, 3 HR, 33-for-34 SB, 18.8% K rate, 7.2% BB rate at Jersey Shore (70 G); .260/.333/.387, 4 HR, 29-for-33 SB, 16.7% K rate, 8% BB rate at Reading (60 G).

» READ MORE: Known for elite defense, Johan Rojas’ growth as a hitter could make him Phillies’ future center fielder

2023 outlook: Defensively, Rojas is a major-league-quality center fielder, with superior athleticism, range, and instincts. But even Dombrowski concedes he’s a work in progress as a hitter. Rojas did close the season on a 29-for-95 (.305) roll and went 13-for-42 (.310) with eight walks and eight strikeouts in the Arizona Fall League. He makes consistent contact. It just needs to be harder contact. Because once he gets on base, it’s a track meet.

Key question: Will he hit enough to be more than a fourth outfielder in the majors?

Age: 19 (turns 20 on Feb. 3)

Height: 5-10 Weight: 190

2022 stats: .283/.384/.415, 7 HR, 10-for-17 SB, 18.9% K rate, 11.9% BB rate at Clearwater (68 G); .257/.350/.486, 1 HR, 22.5% K rate, 12.5% BB rate at Jersey Shore (9 G).

2023 outlook: Lee broke out in his first full season in the States. After signing out of Taiwan for $570,000 in 2021, he was named the best batting prospect in the Florida State League last season in a vote of team managers. He has solid contact skills and power to all fields. A natural shortstop, he gained experience at second and third base.

Key question: Will his offense translate to the upper levels of the minors?

Age: 21 (turns 22 on June 9)

Height: 6-4 Weight: 215

2022 stats: 9.00 ERA, 33.3% K rate, 8.3% BB rate at Clearwater (8 IP).

» READ MORE: The state of the Phillies’ minor league system: Investing in development and prospects to watch

2023 outlook: In a deeper system, McFarlane probably wouldn’t be ranked this high. But he’s a breakout candidate based largely on a lively fastball. He’s able to miss bats by sinking it or riding it up in the zone at 98-99 mph, according to one NL scout. A fourth-round pick last summer out of the University of Miami, McFarlane was primarily a reliever in college. The Phillies likely will give him the opportunity to start in his first full season.

Key question: Will McFarlane develop his changeup into a usable third pitch? If not, the bullpen is probably in his future.

Age: 24 as of Dec. 27

Height: 6-1 Weight: 175

2022 stats: .143/.250/.143, 0 HR, 22.2% K rate, 0% BB rate in majors (9 G); .313/.389/.313, 0 HR, 16.7% K rate, 11.1% BB rate at Lehigh Valley (5 G); .259/.339/.455, 5 HR, 7-for-10 SB, 18.8% K rate, 11.5% BB rate at Reading (38 G).

2023 outlook: Over the last three years, Muzziotti has made a total of 277 plate appearances in only 66 games. After losing a year of development because of the pandemic in 2020, he got stranded in Venezuela because of visa issues and missed most of the 2021 season. A hamstring strain and a partially torn patellar tendon in his right knee sidelined him for much of last season. Like the other center fielders on this list, Muzziotti has speed and top-notch defensive skills. He just needs to stay on the field.

Key question: Will he be able to make up for lost time?

» READ MORE: Bryson Stott’s versatility, willingness to switch positions helped pave the way for Phillies to sign Trea Turner

Age: 23 as of Nov. 7

Height: 6-1 Weight: 210

2022 stats: .238/.290/.344, 7 HR, 25-for-33 SB, 20.3% K rate, 6.1% BB rate at Jersey Shore (112 G); .214/.286/.286, 1 HR, 26.9% K rate, 6.4% BB rate at Reading (18 G).

2023 outlook: A second-round pick in 2021, Wilson was one of the nation’s best collegiate left-handed hitters at South Alabama. It hasn’t clicked for him in pro ball. He has exhibited neither the power nor the strike-zone recognition that characterized his three-year college career. Even scouts who believe he will hit wonder if he will develop into an everyday player at the next level. The Phillies challenged him with a late-season move to double A, but he had only three extra-base hits in 78 plate appearances.

Key question: Can Wilson find the stroke that produced a 1.011 OPS and 28 homers in college?

Age: 21 (turns 22 on March 3)

Height: 6-4 Weight: 225

2022 stats: Did not play.

2023 outlook: Rincones’ presence on this list is based purely on projection. The Phillies drafted him in the third round last summer, then delayed his pro debut because of a shoulder injury. But he has hit wherever he has played, from H.B. Plant High in Tampa, Fla., (alumni include Wade Boggs, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Tucker) to St. Petersburg Junior College and Florida Atlantic, where he bashed 19 homers and slugged .658 last year. Before playing a game, he ranks with strikeout-prone Baron Radcliff, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Carlos De La Cruz as the farm system’s top power hitters.

Key question: Can he maintain his low strikeout rates from college, or will better pitching expose holes in his swing?