Phillies spring takeaways: Andrew Painter’s elbow, Bryce Harper’s arrival, and bench decisions

In a side conversation after a news conference in December, when the most scrutinized elbow in baseball belonged to someone other than Andrew Painter, this was how agent Scott Boras answered a question about a realistic 2023 workload for the Phillies’ 19-year-old pitching phenom:

“There’s a whole group of pitchers that come to the big leagues at young ages, and the back half of their careers, at 30 and beyond, are not good. There’s a titration of innings that, while the player feels great — he has nothing that prevents him from doing it — the reality is, if you throw that many innings when you’re that young, the chances of you throwing past the age of 30 are really limited at elite levels.

“[Fernando] Valenzuela, [Madison] Bumgarner, [Dwight] Gooden, Félix Hernández. We’ve seen these guys be brilliant at 22, 23, 24, and then, because their bodies weren’t mature, that brilliance didn’t continue. And what we’ve got to do is work out a plan for Andrew that allows him to compete at this level, but not to where we’re going to treat him like he’s a normal 27-, 28-year-old major leaguer.”

» READ MORE: How the Phillies are creating a road map to get the most out of Andrew Painter now and long term

Those comments are relevant now because it has been a week since Painter scraped 99 mph in his first spring training start, showed up the next day with his elbow feeling “a little tender,” as manager Rob Thomson put it, and underwent tests. And the results still haven’t been divulged.

The suspense is practically killing Phillies fans.

There aren’t outward signs that Painter is headed for an operating table. Thomson told reporters Tuesday that the Phillies “just want to make sure that the information is right.” Boras, who represents seven players on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, shares that concern, as any agent would. He frequently refers clients to Los Angeles-based orthopedic surgeon Neal ElAttrache, the lead physician for the Dodgers and Rams. ElAttrache is likely being consulted on Painter’s case.

So, the delay may indicate only that all parties are trying to agree on a plan to get Painter ready for the season without another injury scare. It’s a topic that provokes discussion, maybe even debate. Because while Boras’ list of cautionary tales includes several well-known pitching prodigies, it also left out two of his own clients: Steve Avery and Stephen Strasburg.

Avery, drafted third overall in 1988 out of a Michigan high school, made his debut two years later as a 20-year-old with the Braves. The left-hander had three consecutive years of 210⅓, 233⅔, and 223⅓ innings before injuring a muscle under his left armpit late in the 1993 season. He pitched through it and was never the same. Avery made 125 starts with a 3.49 ERA through his age-23 season, and 136 starts with a 4.86 mark in 10 subsequent years.

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Strasburg, arguably the most hyped pitching prospect ever, threw only 55⅓ innings in the minors before making his debut for the Nationals in 2010. After posting a 2.91 ERA in 12 starts and flinging fastballs that pushed triple digits, he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. In hindsight, it was all probably too much too soon.

Nobody, from the Phillies to Boras, wants that for Painter. The trick now is figuring out how to avoid it while maximizing his impact in 2023 and also his staying power for years to come.

Other thoughts and observations with three weeks until opening day:

1. Bailey Falter leads the fifth-starter race because of both Painter’s predicament and his own 3.76 ERA in 16 starts last season, including a 2.54 mark while Zack Wheeler was on the injured list. But don’t sleep on Michael Plassmeyer. The 26-year-old lefty was outstanding in triple A after being acquired from the Giants last June for catcher Austin Wynns and has looked good this spring.

2. Four of Falter’s five starts in place of Wheeler last season came against the noncontending Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Marlins (twice). If he starts the third game of the season in Texas rather than the fifth or sixth at Yankee Stadium, the Phillies could get him two favorable matchups in April against the Reds.

3. Gregory Soto’s visa delay is over. The hard-throwing lefty has arrived in Clearwater, the Phillies announced Wednesday. Soto isn’t far behind the other pitchers. He was working out at the Phillies’ academy in the Dominican Republic and pitched in winter ball in the offseason.

4. If the Phillies choose to carry a long reliever, intriguing 6-foot-6 lefty Andrew Vasquez may be squeezed out of the bullpen mix. Vasquez, who can’t be sent to the minors without exposure to waivers, throws his curveball more than 70% of the time. He has allowed one unearned run and racked up seven strikeouts in 3⅔ innings.

5. After years of uppercutting to optimize for launch angle, Scott Kingery’s offseason work with hitting coach Kevin Long yielded a flatter swing. Not coincidentally, he’s 6-for-15 with four strikeouts. “If he can get his stroke back — not necessarily power; just put the ball in play — he’s got a lot of value,” Thomson said. Kingery isn’t on the 40-man roster, but the Phillies do need someone to come off the bench and play center field. Keep an eye on that.

6. It’s between lefty-hitting Darick Hall, Jake Cave and Kody Clemens, and righty-swinging Dalton Guthrie and Kingery for the last two bench jobs. Hall has the most power but the least positional versatility. Cave plays every outfield position; Clemens every infield spot. Guthrie and Kingery play the infield and outfield, including center. And save for Guthrie, they’ve all swung the bat well.

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7. Trea Turner has fit seamlessly into the clubhouse dynamic. To wit: Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto recently ribbed him for not trying to steal after the pitcher reached the limit of two pickoff throws. A few days later, Turner fired back at Schwarber for being the lone veteran absent from the lineup. “If there was a fit for a team where a guy would come in and feel like he didn’t miss a beat, it would be him,” Schwarber said. “He fits exactly the personalities in here.”

8. Aaron Nola, one of the slower-working Phillies pitchers, is adjusting to the pitch clock. “Especially in the windup, [15 seconds] does sneak up on you a little bit,” he said. “We’re lucky to have J.T. and [Garrett] Stubbs behind the plate. Pretty much when you get on the rubber it’s 11-12 seconds. If you shake off [a pitch], you’re down to 5 seconds. You and your catcher have got to be on the same page.”

9. The Bryceman cometh to Florida. Bryce Harper is expected to check into camp Thursday to continue his recovery from Tommy John elbow surgery under the supervision of the Phillies’ training staff. As one player noted, it will be fascinating to see how Harper handles the pitch clock once he’s cleared to hit. He has among the most exaggerated between-pitches histrionics of any hitter in the sport. Like everyone else, he’ll need to speed it up.

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