Phillies vs. Astros predictions: Who will win the World Series?

The Phillies’ improbable run has led them to their first World Series since 2009. They will take on the 106-win Houston Astros, who have made their fourth World Series in six seasons. Aaron Nola will start Game 1 for the Phillies at 8:03 p.m. Friday against the Astros, who are expected to send Justin Verlander to the mound.

Whose season will end with a victory parade? Our writers give their picks.

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Remember that scene in the cinematic masterpiece Rocky IV when Adrian pleads with Rocky to call off the fight with Ivan Drago, screaming, “You can’t win!” That’s how everyone seems to be treating the Astros this week. How’d that turn out for old Drago? The Phillies can win this series as long as they split in Houston and receive a strong performance from Ranger Suárez in Game 3. I think that happens. Bryce Harper is on a heater, Kyle Schwarber is healthy, and Rhys Hoskins keeps providing big hits. Now’s the time for Nick Castellanos to join the party. The Astros haven’t lost in the postseason behind strong starting pitching and a lights-out bullpen. But the Phillies have two starters who can match up against anyone and their bullpen has held its own this month. The Phillies win one of two this weekend in Houston and then return to the jungle. Like Rocky told Adrian, “Maybe I can’t win. Maybe the only thing I can do is just take everything he’s got.”

Prediction: Phillies in five.

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On paper, the Astros definitely have the advantage here. They have more pitching depth than the Phillies. They have an unrelenting lineup of players who have been to the postseason before. They have yet to lose a game in the postseason. But all of that being said, the Phillies have a couple of things working in their favor. They’ve thrived in the underdog role. Their big boppers are getting hot at exactly the right time, and their No. 1 and 2 starters can compete with anyone. If the Phillies take one in Houston, this is going to be a series. And given that the Phillies have shown “Team of Destiny” vibes to this point, I’m going with …

Prediction: Phillies in seven.

This is less an examination in what the Astros have than what the Phillies lack. They’re starting their perennial Cy Young Award candidate Zack Wheeler in Game 2 because he needs the extra day of rest, given that his velocity declines after about 40 pitches. The Astros have the best lineup top to bottom. They’ll chase Wheeler after four innings, five at most. The same will be true for Suárez. The Padres didn’t pitch to Schwarber in Game 5. Don’t expect the Astros to pitch to him, either. And the next fastball for a strike that Harper sees will be a mistake. Or it will be March. This means Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Castellanos, and Alec Bohm will have to carry the club.

Prediction: Astros in six.

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It wouldn’t be unlike the Astros to rampage through the regular season and the American League playoffs only to get upset in the World Series. It happened in 2019, when they were 14 games better than the Washington Nationals and lost in seven games, and again last year when the 88-win Atlanta Braves toppled a 95-win Astros team. So, do the Phillies have a chance? Of course they do. Maybe even a halfway decent one. But they probably must win each game started by Aaron Nola and Wheeler. They also probably have to win all three games at home. It’s difficult to watch everything that has happened over the last three weeks and bet against them. But if the gut says to go with Team Destiny, the head says it’s Dusty and the ‘Stros’ year to finally prove they never needed to cheat in 2017.

Prediction: Astros in six.

It’s awfully hard to pick against the Phillies given how consistently they’ve risen to the moment throughout this postseason. But it’s also hard to believe that their bullpen can survive another seven-game series. So why not believe that Nola will be the X factor, particularly after his brilliant performance against the Astros in the regular-season clincher? Pencil in the Phils for wins in Games 1 and 5 behind Nola and Game 3 behind Suárez. Then, it’s Wheeler for the clinch in Houston.

Prediction: Phillies in six.

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The proper and obvious comparison between this World Series and the previous 117 iterations of the Fall Classic is 1993. That year, a loosey-goosey Phillies club, one that had been an underdog in the National League playoffs, faced the best team in the American League. A similar dynamic is present here. In ‘93, the Phils’ opponent was the defending world champion Toronto Blue Jays. This opponent, the Astros, won 106 games during the regular season, is 7-0 in the postseason, won the whole thing in 2017, and has reached the Series four times in the last six years. It would not be surprising if the Phillies pulled off an upset; that’s how much gumption and guts they have. But the result is more likely to mirror ‘93′s, even if Joe Carter is just watching from home this time.

Prediction: Astros in six.

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