An Astros-Phillies World Series rematch? Three reasons to hope, three reasons to fear

The pitching matchups would look similar. The lineups, even more dangerous. The bullpens? It all depends on how you look at it.

The Phillies and Astros both entered Sunday a win away from securing the first World Series rematch since 1977 and 1978, when the Dodgers faced the Yankees in back-to-back seasons.

This time, home-field advantage would belong to the Phillies. The intimidation factor would still belong to the Astros, who rallied from a two-games-to-one deficit to win last year’s Fall Classic in six.

The exact pitching matchups would probably depend on what happens in any Game 7s. If both teams take care of business in Game 6 — the Astros against the Rangers on Sunday night and the Phillies against the Diamondbacks on Monday — the schedule will look something like this:

Friday, Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Saturday, Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park: RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Framber Valdez

Monday, Oct. 30, Game 3 at Minute Maid Park: LHP Ranger Suárez vs. RHP Cristian Javier

Tuesday, Oct. 31, Game 4 at Minute Maid Park: LHP Cristopher Sánchez vs. RHP Jose Uquidy

Wednesday, Nov. 1, Game 5 at Minute Maid Park: Wheeler vs. Verlander

Friday, Nov. 3, Game 6 at Citizens Bank Park: Nola vs. Valdez

Saturday, Nov. 4, Game 7 at Citizens Bank Park: Suárez vs. Javier

» READ MORE: Zack Wheeler delivers an all-time great performance, saves the season, and makes history

For the Phillies, there are plenty of reasons to hope that things would end differently this time. There are an equal number of reasons for concern.

Nobody thought a three-game series in April would mean so much. The Phillies would host Games 1 and 2 and potentially Games 6 and 7 thanks to their taking two out of three from the Astros in the regular season. That tiebreaker would come into play, since both teams finished the regular season with 90 wins.

There’s an argument to be made that home field didn’t mean much last year. The Phillies split the first two games in Houston and then lost two of three at Citizens Bank Park. But forget that. The opportunity to have Wheeler and Nola on the mound in front of a home crowd in the first two games should be a big advantage. Even if the Phillies split Games 1 and 2 and then lose two of the three in Houston, they’ll still be coming back to Philly for Game 6 and possibly Game 7, with Nola going in Game 6. Would that have made a difference last year? Who knows, but it does change the calculus of this year’s series.

The difference in last year’s World Series was the Phillies’ near-total inability to produce against Houston’s fleet of high-end relievers. They scored just three runs in 21⅔ innings against the Astros bullpen, averaging less than a baserunner per inning and striking out 28 times.

The good news is that Houston has looked a little more beatable on the back end during the ALCS. In Games 3 and 5, primary setup men Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris combined to strike out just one of 18 batters. Six of those batters reached base. Three scored.

The bad news?

These guys are still really good. Both Neris and Abreu had ERAs under 1.76 in the regular season. Meanwhile, Ryan Pressly remains one of the best closers in postseason history. It’s hard to know where to start with Pressly. He’s never blown a postseason save, going a perfect 14-for-14 with a 0.79 ERA in 31 appearances since 2020. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 20 postseason outings dating to the 2021 ALCS. During that stretch, he has allowed just 18 baserunners in 22⅔ innings with 33 strikeouts and seven walks. The Phillies faced him in five of their six World Series games last season, reaching base four times with five strikeouts in 5⅔ innings. They did score an unearned run against him in the Astros’ 5-2 win in Game 2.

Pressly has been even better this postseason. He has struck out 10 of the 21 batters he’s faced while allowing two hits and two walks.

Valdez has looked nothing like the guy who dominated the Phillies in Games 2 and 6 of the World Series. Heading into Game 6, the Astros had lost both of the lefty’s starts. Valdez’s numbers in those outings: seven innings, 14 hits, 10 runs, four walks, 11 strikeouts, two home runs. Compare that to his two starts against the Phillies last year: 12⅓ innings, six hits, two runs, five walks, 18 strikeouts, one home run.

Small sample? Sure. Except Valdez’s struggles go back to July. In his last 14 starts of the regular season, he allowed an uncharacteristic 12 home runs in 87 innings while posting a 4.66 ERA.

Valdez’s peripherals don’t show any dramatic declines. He’s seen slight dips in his fastball velocity, strikeout rate, and walk rate. But he’s mostly been done in by home runs. When Valdez is on, his sinker is as difficult a pitch to drive as any in the league. So we’ll see.

» READ MORE: Craig Kimbrel’s implosion was easy to foresee, hard to avoid. Now, it might be impossible to overcome.

He was my preseason pick for MVP, and he might have an argument for it if not for the presence of Shohei Ohtani and the 48 games he missed. Alvarez’s 31 home runs in 496 plate appearances equate to 44 homers over a 162-game season. His .990 OPS would rank third in the AL behind Ohtani and Corey Seager.

But look at what Alvarez is doing this postseason. Heading into the ALCS Game 6, he’d had multiple hits in six of nine games, including the last four. He has two multi-homer games, 13 RBIs, and a whopping 1.422 OPS.

The Phillies actually had a lot of success against Alvarez in the World Series, holding him to 3-for-23 with eight strikeouts, two walks, two extra base hits, and one home run. Of course, that one home run was a big one: a go-ahead shot off José Alvarado late in Game 6 that sealed the series.

Both looked gassed by the start of last year’s World Series. Wheeler’s first start was a dud, a 5-2 Game 2 loss in which he allowed five runs in five innings. He did what he could in Game 6, but made it just 5⅓ innings and 70 pitches before manager Rob Thomson made a controversial decision to pull him.

Nola’s struggles went all the way back to the NLCS, when the Padres torched him for six runs in 4⅔ innings. In Game 1 of the World Series, he allowed five runs in 4⅓ innings of the Phillies’ 6-5 win. In Game 4, he lasted just four innings, allowing three runs as the Astros no-hit the Phillies.

Thomson needs to stick with Matt Strahm as his closer. As long as he realizes that, the Phillies might gain something from Craig Kimbrel’s struggles in the NLCS. As long as they end up clinching, they’ll come away with the knowledge that they can’t keep running Kimbrel out there and be no worse for the wear. Strahm is a gamer. He throws strikes. He isn’t rattled. He’s always available. He hasn’t allowed a run in 4⅔ innings this postseason. He’s stranded five of the six runners he’s inherited. Besides Alvarado, there is nobody in the bullpen I’d trust more right now. He’s been virtually flawless in two save situations, pitching a scoreless eighth against the Braves to protect a 3-0 lead in Game 1 of the NLDS and then picking up the save in Game 4 with a scoreless ninth inning. He recorded the final out of Game 5 against the Diamondbacks.

Next up after Strahm and Alvarado are Seranthony Domínguez and Jeff Hoffman. Domínguez has somehow recorded four holds without allowing an earned run in 5⅓ innings despite putting nine runners on base. His stuff at least looks good. The command is the question. Hoffman? He throws strikes. That’s what you need. He’s walked one batter in 5⅓ innings this postseason with eight strikeouts. The only blemish was that eighth-inning home run in Game 2 of the NLDS.

Those are four guys you can kind of talk yourself into. But it looks awfully dicey beyond that.