What’s the optimal Phillies batting order with Bryce Harper back?

Editor’s note: This story was originally published on Saturday and has been updated with news of Harper’s return.

Whenever Rob Thomson was able to sneak in some time at home in Canada over the winter — between organizational meetings in Philadelphia and Clearwater, Fla., and crisscrossing the continent to sit in on interviews with free-agent shortstops — he would recline in his favorite chair, flip on a hockey game, and let his mind wander to variations of the Phillies’ batting order.

“I don’t know how many I had going,” Thomson said before spring training. “Fifteen? Fourteen?”

With or without Bryce Harper?

“Both,” he said.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper will return to the Phillies’ lineup on Tuesday. Is it too much, too soon?

And why not? Who among us doesn’t enjoy jotting lineups, scratching out names, adding others, and imagining the optimal batting order for scoring runs? It’s a pastime for armchair managers to pass time. It’s also what makes Baseball Musings’ lineup analyzer, obsolete (it was developed in 2006) and flawed as it is, so addicting. Input nine players, add on-base and slugging percentages, and voila, the computer spits out what it deems the best and worst possible batting orders.

Curious about what it says for the Phillies? Thought you’d never ask.

The batting order is about to come into focus again, as Harper completes an impossibly swift comeback from a right elbow ligament reconstruction. He was cleared by his surgeon on Monday in Los Angeles, and is expected to return to the lineup as the designated hitter Tuesday against the Dodgers.

So, using the on-base and slugging percentages for each player’s last 75 games dating to last season — an arbitrary but fairly representative sample of roughly 300 plate appearances — here’s how the lineup analyzer views the Phillies’ best lineup:

1. Harper, DH

2. Brandon Marsh, CF

3. Nick Castellanos, RF

4. Kyle Schwarber, LF

5. J.T. Realmuto, C

6. Alec Bohm, 3B

7. Bryson Stott, 2B

8. Trea Turner, SS

9. Edmundo Sosa, 3B

If that seems only slightly more scientific than throwing darts, it’s probably because the analyzer doesn’t distinguish right-handed hitters from lefties, a factor that is considered by most managers, including Thomson. It also doesn’t take into account players’ comfort in specific spots, their recent hot and cold streaks, and other human elements.

Also, the algorithm that predicts how many runs a lineup would produce uses trends from 1959 to 2004. Offense in baseball has evolved considerably in the last 20 years.

» READ MORE: Why Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh are keys to the Phillies’ making a big jump in 2023

Back in reality, Thomson guessed that the lineup “probably won’t change dramatically” once Harper returns, at least as long as he’s a DH. If we’ve learned anything from Thomson’s philosophy on lineup construction, it’s that he prefers consistency, especially at the top. Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins batted first and second, respectively, in 98 of 111 games after Thomson took over as manager last season.

Nobody, certainly not Thomson, asked our opinion on how the batting order should look. But that won’t stop us from making a humble suggestion:

Not sold on sticking with Stott atop the order? Consider this: Entering the weekend, he was leading the Phillies in pitches per plate appearance (4.26) and had seen the sixth-most pitches (486) of any hitter in the majors.

Still not convinced? Rewatch the first inning Wednesday, when he fouled off three consecutive full-count fastballs — 96, 97, and 96 mph from Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert — and drew a nine-pitch walk.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ Bryson Stott succeeding in the leadoff spot how he always has: ‘I’m not in a rush’

OK, Stott doesn’t walk as often as Schwarber or even Turner. But he strikes out less than they do. He led off in college at UNLV and in the minors. And he enables Thomson to lengthen the lineup, especially against right-handed pitchers — and still alternate lefty hitters and righties — by nudging Turner and Schwarber down.

The more you think about Stott at the top, the more sense it makes.

In spring training, Turner confided in Larry Bowa that he hoped to get off to a better start than in previous years with the Nationals and Dodgers.

So, yes, maybe he’s pressing. He’s human.

That last part may have gotten lost amid Turner’s $300 million contract and star turn as Captain America at the World Baseball Classic. With expectations ratcheted to unreachable heights, he had a .716 OPS through Thursday, comparable to his .724 mark last April in Los Angeles. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone and striking out more often, tell-tale signs of a star who is trying too hard.

» READ MORE: The two greatest Phillies shortstops are happy to welcome Trea Turner to the family: ‘We got the right guy’

Turner has been a league-average hitter. Everyone knows he’s much better than that. So, when the inevitable hot streak arrives, Stott-Turner figures to be as dynamic, albeit a wholly different, left-right top-of-the-order punch as Schwarber-Hoskins.

If Harper dragged a .216/.320/.352 line through his first 24 games last year after a two-month absence with a broken left thumb, what will it look like after he didn’t have a spring training and eschewed a minor league assignment?

Then again, given the anatomy-defying speed with which he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery, he’s capable of anything.

» READ MORE: Can AI pitching technology help Bryce Harper return to the Phillies even sooner?

“I’ve seen him in spring training in his first at-bat hit a homer,” hitting coach Kevin Long said. “He knows what he’s up against.”

A case could be made for batting Harper lower until he gets his timing down. But he hasn’t hit lower than cleanup since 2018 or fifth since 2014. No. 3 is more than a uniform number to Harper. It’s where he feels most comfortable. The Phillies will most likely put him there and let him swing away the rust.

In discussing his recent revival at the plate, Castellanos has made multiple references to his batting mostly second or third — and the increased protection that came with it — for the Reds in 2020-21 and the Tigers in 2018-19.

» READ MORE: How Nick Castellanos’ time in Cincinnati provided a road map for success with the Phillies

“Just me being a swing-first guy, I’ve always benefited from having the most protection as possible,” he said. “Usually when you’re in the front load of the lineup, as soon as you fall behind, there’s a little bit more of an urgency to see pitches over the plate. Being a swing-first guy, that’s when I would do a lot of my damage.”

Although he’s back to being a doubles machine and an opposite-field power threat, Castellanos is unlikely to bat second or third. But is there a cushier spot in a lineup than batting behind Harper and ahead of Schwarber? The reigning NL home-run king is decent protection.

This is where the batting order really lengthens out. Because as much as Schwarber thrived last season in a leadoff role that he enjoyed (38 of his 46 homers came atop the order), he occupied that spot only because Thomson didn’t have better options.

Now? Schwarber is probably the Phillies’ third-best choice to lead off. The addition of Turner and the emergence of Stott enables them to downshift the slugger into a more traditional run-producing position for which his three-true-outcome tendencies are best suited.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper’s pre-pitch routine has to change, but even he doesn’t know what it will look like yet.

Entering the weekend, Schwarber was tied for third in homers (188) and ranked fifth in strikeouts (868) and 13th in walks (402) among all hitters since 2017. He was also tied for 37th in RBIs (412) and 38th in slugging (.494). It’s a classic middle-of-the-order profile. And if he gets scorching hot in June for the third year in a row, the Phillies can always move him up.

It’s tempting, given Realmuto’s impact on the bases, to put him closer to the top. But like Schwarber, he has batted everywhere — one through nine — in his career, and his production out of the No. 6 hole — .311/.354/.473 — is as solid as any spot.

Besides, no catcher plays every day, not even Realmuto. For the once or twice a week that he does get a breather, it’s less disruptive to tweak the lower half of the order, especially when the top five has the potential to be potent without him.

Here, though, is where we pause to ponder the impact that Hoskins would’ve had on this part of the order if not for his season-ending knee injury. How many No. 6 or 7 hitters averaged 30 homers and slugged .485 over the last four full seasons?

Marsh’s evolution with the Phillies has been well-documented. A deeper crouch. Feet spread wider. Higher hand position.

» READ MORE: Trade for Brandon Marsh is looking like a win-win for Phillies and Angels

But the results have been equally stark. Marsh batted .239 and slugged .354 in 583 plate appearances with the Angels. In 226 plate appearances with the Phillies through Thursday, he was batting .306 and slugging .536, the 10th-best mark since last year’s trade deadline and better than such notable hitters as Yordan Alvarez (.532), Julio Rodriguez (.514), Paul Goldschmidt (.512), Mookie Betts (.503), and Pete Alonso (.497).

At last, Marsh is getting an opportunity to play against more left-handed pitchers. It should stay that way, too, unless he shows he can’t hit them. So far, though, he’s looking like an offensive force in the lower half of the lineup.

The seventh and eighth spots are mostly interchangeable. And given Bohm’s reverse splits so far this season (.849 OPS against right-handers, .668 vs. lefties), Thomson may prefer him in the No. 7 hole more often.

For all the attention in spring training on Bohm’s increased muscle, he still looks more like a high-average hitter than a bopper given his knack for using the entire field when he’s going well.

Either way, Bohm leads the Phillies with 95 hits with runners in scoring position since 2020 and figures to keep opposing pitchers from exhaling when they get to the bottom of the Phillies’ order.

Sosa is the de facto third baseman, a status that he figures to retain as long as Harper is limited to DH’ing. That’s fine by Thomson, who has been enamored with the slick-fielding infielder since the Phillies got him from the Cardinals in a deadline trade last year.

Besides, in a lineup with this much thump, the Phillies need their No. 9 hitter to mostly just play defense.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper, first baseman? Here’s why it makes sense for the Phillies.

Like Marsh, though, Sosa has made drastic improvements, albeit in a small sample. He had a .668 OPS in 470 plate appearances with St. Louis; through 114 plate appearances with the Phillies: .884. He also has brought energy on the bases, a style that he said he learned growing up in Panama.

“I know I have a pretty good defense,” Sosa said recently through a team interpreter, “but people need to know that Edmundo Sosa also has a bat.”

And he fits in perfectly at the bottom of the lineup.