NL Division Series storylines: Can the powerhouse Braves beat the Phillies’ vibe this time?

Not 15 minutes after his overmatched team was dismantled and left to rot in the warm South Philadelphia night, Skip Schumaker was asked to share a scouting report on the looming National League Division Series.

An ill-timed request? Probably.

But Schumaker didn’t seem to mind. As a baseball fan, he said he will be glued to Phillies-Braves II as much as anyone from Delco to Decatur. And as manager of the Marlins, nobody is more familiar with the NL East titans.

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“They’re two of the best teams in the major leagues,” Schumaker said. “Incredibly tough to navigate a lineup as far as bullpen matchups. There are no holes. There’s star power up and down the lineup that is postseason-tested. The run games on both sides are incredible. It’s going to come down to bullpen and starting pitching.”

Fourteen games separated the Phillies from the Braves in the regular season, but everyone in baseball knows it’s much closer than that. Since June 2, the Phillies went 65-40 — a 100-win pace — with a plus-127 run differential. Only the Braves, at 71-34 and plus-174, were better over that span.

If this was an Ali-Frazier-style tale-of-the-tape, the Phillies and Braves could go star-for-star (Bryce Harper vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.); slugger-for-slugger (Kyle Schwarber vs. Matt Olson); catcher-for-catcher (J.T. Realmuto vs. Sean Murphy); third baseman-for-third baseman (Alec Bohm vs. Austin Riley); ace-for-ace (Zack Wheeler vs. Spencer Strider). The Phillies added star shortstop Trea Turner this year; the Braves have second-base stalwart Ozzie Albies, who missed the last postseason with injuries.

When the Braves clinched the division title in Philadelphia on Sept. 13, several players said they expected to return for the playoffs. It’s only fitting. Because the Phillies finished 14 games behind the Braves last season, just like this year, and wiped them out in four games in the divisional round.

Can they do it again?

“We feel like this is what this team is built for,” Realmuto said. “We’re built for postseason success. Obviously we’re going up against a really good team in Atlanta, but we’re confident in the guys in this clubhouse. It should be a lot of fun.”

Here, then, are five storylines for the best-of-five series:

Pitching usually rules the day in the postseason. But in handicapping the Braves’ chances, one rival scout put it this way: “Their starting pitching and ‘pen depth are not openly exposed because of the massive number of runs they score.”

Indeed, Atlanta has a modern-day Murderers’ Row.

Hyperbole? Consider this: The Braves outhomered and outslugged the 1927 Yankees. Their .501 slugging percentage was the highest ever. Their 307 homers were tied with the 2019 Twins for a major league record. Five players finished with more than 30 homers and slugged at least .500. Olson led the majors with 54 homers; Acuña is the first player in history with 40 homers and 70 steals in a season.

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“We didn’t really know how to pitch them, honestly,” Schumaker said. “I don’t think the league did. We were trying everything. It starts with the top and that middle of the order. They make you pay when you make a little bit of a mistake.”

Maybe the Braves’ bats are unstoppable. Then again, Wheeler has a knack for cooling them, with a 2.32 ERA in 13 starts since 2020. And he’s lined up to start twice in the series on regular rest: Games 2 and 5.

“Obviously we’re trying to win both [Games 1 and 2 in Atlanta], but a split would be nice,” Wheeler said. “Win one there and come back home to this crowd and this stadium. We had a lot of fun here last year.”

They did last October, with Rhys Hoskins famously spiking his bat after taking Strider deep in Game 3. But the hard-throwing righty was compromised because of a strained side muscle. When he’s healthy, well, look what he does to the Phillies:

Four starts this season vs. the Phillies: 2.42 ERA, 38.8% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate.

28 starts vs. everyone else: 4.03 ERA, 36.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper’s recovery and standout season after elbow surgery even surprised his physical therapist

It’s not only this year. The Phillies don’t typically struggle to hit velocity, but are 25-for-166 (.150) with 10 walks, four homers, and 72 strikeouts against Strider in his career.

And they likely will face him twice — in Games 1 and 4.

Given how frequently the teams meet during the season, there aren’t secrets between the Phillies and Braves.

Well, maybe one.

The Braves have never faced Kerkering.

» READ MORE: Phillies rookie Orion Kerkering 'responded great' in his postseason debut

You’ve heard the story: Kerkering began the season at low-A, zoomed through four levels of the farm system, got called up in late September, made three regular-season appearances, and was included on the playoff roster. He threw a scoreless eighth inning in the Game 2 rout of the Marlins.

But manager Rob Thomson said he intends to use Kerkering in high-leverage situations, especially against right-handed hitters. It’ll be fascinating to see how his nasty slider plays against Acuña, Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Murphy.

The Braves’ reward for winning the division, in addition to home-field advantage, is being able to line up their starting pitching. With a day off between Games 1 and 2, they’re hoping Strider and Max Fried can make two starts apiece — on regular rest, no less.

But Fried hasn’t pitched since Sept. 21 because of a blister on his left index finger. He threw five innings this week in a simulated game while wearing a Band-Aid for protection, which isn’t permitted in an actual game.

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Even if Fried survives his scheduled Game 2 start Monday in Atlanta, would he be able to recover in time to start again five days later in a potential Game 5?

Beyond Strider, Fried, and likely Game 3 starter Bryce Elder, the Braves’ rotation is thin. Without injured Charlie Morton, they may have to turn to Kyle Wright, a 21-game winner last year who made only seven starts this season because of a shoulder injury.

After the Phillies vanquished the Marlins, Harper stood in the middle of the smoke-filled clubhouse, goggles pressed to his forehead, and gave away the secret to their postseason success.

“The vibes,” he said, his voice rising over pumping music. “That’s it. We have such good vibes with the fans and our city. It’s a blast.”

» READ MORE: Murphy: Bryson Stott’s grand slam was bigger than it looked. Beware, Braves. The Phillies are back and rolling.

It’s a difficult concept in a sport that places a metric on everything. But the Phillies have an unquantifiable magic in October. The Braves saw it firsthand last year. But can they stop it this time around?

“Every series we go into, I say, ‘Don’t give the Phils a reason to party,’ ” Realmuto said. “We like to celebrate together, and that’s part of the reason we play so well on the field. We have a lot of fun.”