Phillies or Braves? Our predictions for the NLDS

The Phillies, who are coming off their first playoff series win since 2010, take on the Braves in a National League Division Series. Game 1 is at 1:07 p.m. Tuesday with Ranger Suárez starting for the Phillies against the Braves’ Max Fried.

Who will be moving on to the National League Championship Series? Our writers give their picks.

The Phillies swept the Cardinals without much help from a lineup they built to carry them into October. That has to change for them to get past the Braves. I think it does. Bryce Harper’s home run on Saturday could be what he needed after a quiet September. What better way for Harper — who has strong numbers against Atlanta’s first two starters — to announce his return to the postseason than by carrying the Phils past the defending world champions?

Prediction: Phillies in four.

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Maybe I’m putting too much stock in something that can’t be measured, but I do believe in the power of momentum, especially in the playoffs. And coming off a sweep of the Cardinals, the Phillies can carry that into this series against the Braves. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have proven — to the league and to themselves — that they can pitch in big games, and will likely start Games 2 and 3. What works even more in the Phillies’ favor is that Braves rookie Spencer Strider might not be available, or could be available just out of the bullpen. Will it be easy to beat the Braves? No, of course not. But I think they push it to five games and the take the whole thing.

Prediction: Phillies in five.

Maybe the Braves’ bats will fall silent. Maybe the Phillies’ bats will wake up. Those are the only two things that can push the Phillies to the National League Championship Series, because the Braves look like a team that can repeat. The Braves finished third in the majors in runs (789) mainly because they finished second in home runs (249). Even if the Phillies get the good Ranger Suárez in the series opener Tuesday afternoon — he went six innings in his last three meaningful starts and allowed a total of three runs — and even if Wheeler and Nola continue as co-ace, it cannot be overstated that the Phillies went 2-5 in September against the Braves and scored a total of seven runs as the Braves swept them out of Truist Park in three games. Assume the Phils get gems in Games 2 and 3 from Wheeler and Nola. The Phillies got just nine hits in their two-game sweep of the Cardinals in the wild-card round. Those bats better wake up. They might, for one game.

Prediction: Braves in four.

» READ MORE: With Wheeler and Nola rolling, these Phillies are a live underdog in NLDS vs. Braves

Last month, as the Phillies stumbled toward a wild card (doesn’t that seem like forever ago?), it was fair to wonder what would constitute a successful season. Was it enough to just make the playoffs? Did they have to win a round? Now we know. No matter what happens this week, 2022 qualifies as a success. In that sense, the Phillies are playing with house money. Maybe that works to their advantage. With Wheeler and Nola looming, Game 1 even feels like a must-win for Atlanta. It isn’t, of course. And the Braves are the defending champs for a reason. They know how to win, as the Mets can attest after getting caught from behind for the NL East title. The Phillies, to their credit, are learning. The gap is closing. They just aren’t there yet. Bet against the Braves at your own risk.

Prediction: Braves in five.

Like I said the other day, I’d bet your money on the Phillies, but not mine. Vegas has it at 65/35 Braves and I think that’s accurate. The Phillies need everything to go right. The Braves simply need that not to happen. The Phillies need to thread a hell of a needle: Jump on a rusty Braves team in Game 1 and then get shutdown performances from Nola and Wheeler. If this goes longer than three, the Braves have a huge edge.

Prediction: Braves in four.

» READ MORE: NL Division Series: Five subplots to Phillies vs. Braves

The Phillies, in their current form, are built to be a dangerous playoff team. They have two high-end starters, Wheeler and Nola, who can shut down an opposing lineup. They have at least five regulars who can change a game with one swing — and some of them haven’t started hitting yet. They have, with Zach Eflin in his new quasi-closer role, length and depth in the bullpen. And as the lowest seed in the National League, they’re playing as if they have nothing to lose. The Braves are great, but here’s the kiss of death:

Prediction: Phillies in five.