Revamped Braves and past struggles loom large for the Phillies as opening day nears

CLEARWATER, Fla. — A gauntlet awaits the Phillies. Right out of the gate. To appreciate the magnitude of the challenge, just watch a few Chris Sale highlights from the Grapefruit League.

How long can he stay healthy? A fair question, but mostly irrelevant to the Phillies. Sale is a strong bet to be on the mound at some point during their opening series against the Braves. Much like Jacob deGrom last year, the five-time AL Cy Young finalist will be their problem at least once.

With a week-and-a-half left in spring training, those first three games -- and the ones immediately beyond -- are beginning to occupy a greater share of the Phillies’ focus as they look to avoid a fourth straight April swoon.

“You definitely get antsy,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said on Sunday. “The last couple weeks of spring training kind of drag out. I usually feel pretty ready after a couple of weeks’ worth of games. So then the last two weeks, you’re just ready for the season. You’re really looking forward to opening day.”

For two months, the questions about this Phillies team have tended toward the big picture. Who will start in center field? Can the Phillies avoid another two-month slump in April and May? Should Kyle Schwarber bat leadoff?

The closer you get to opening day, the narrower and more concrete the considerations become.

Spencer Strider. Max Fried. Chris Sale.

Kinda brings things into focus, doesn’t it?

Can the Phillies avoid another rough start? Well, that depends in part on whether they can take two out of three from the Braves. Who should start in center field? Well, that depends in part on which combination of defense and right-handed hitting puts you in the best position to beat a couple of lefty starters in Fried and Sale and a Braves bullpen that could include four southpaws. Should Schwarber lead off? Well, that depends in part on whether it is better to go lefty-righty-lefty or righty-lefty-righty or righty-lefty-lefty against the Braves’ pitching staff.

(A prediction: Schwarber will (correctly) open the season right where he has been since early last season).

The earnest part of the preparations is beginning. On Sunday, after Zack Wheeler pitched four innings in his penultimate Grapefruit League start, Phillies manager Rob Thomson informed the veteran righthander that he would be starting opening day against the Braves. The afternoon also saw appearances by Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Domínguez, and Gregory Soto, three of Thomson’s top relief arms for the upcoming season. The plan is to pitch all three of them in back-to-back games, and also have them come into an inning with runners on base. The projected regulars will all see their daily allotment of Grapefruit League appearances increase toward regular-season proportions.

“We’ll try to play the game, at least the first six, seven innings, like it’s a regular-season game,” Thomson said.

It is that time of year. There is a little more urgency this time around, at least philosophically. After the Phillies’ season ended with a thud against the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, Thomson and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke about wanting to do everything in their power to avoid the early-season struggles that have plagued the Phillies the last few seasons. Last year’s NL title defense began with three losses to the Rangers followed by two out of three to the Yankees followed by five out of 10 against the Marlins and Reds. By June 3 the Phillies were seven games under .500 at 25-32, tied with the Nationals for last place in the division, eight games behind the first-place Braves.

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From that point on, the Phillies played at a 100-win pace. Their 65-40 record was a mere half-game worse than the Dodgers for the second best in the majors during that stretch.

The stakes are ... well, open to interpretation.

Think about it this way. Imagine that the Phillies had spent April and May winning at the same clip as they did over the rest of the season. On Sept. 11, they would have trailed in the division by seven games while playing the Braves in seven of their remaining 20 games.

There are two ways to look at that, of course. The first is that the Phillies weren’t going to catch the Braves regardless of what happened in the first couple of months. The second is that, as dominant as the Braves were, and as overwhelming a favorite as they currently are, the Phillies do not need to become a radically different team to keep themselves in the conversation.

If Ranger Suárez makes 30 starts instead of 22 ...

If Bryce Harper plays six months instead of five ...

If Trea Turner’s OPS is higher than .656 in his first 108 games of the season ...

If Aaron Nola brings his ERA back to below 4.00 ...

That’s a lot of ifs. But they aren’t your typical rose-tinted hypotheticals. In fact, all are likelier than not to yield some positive regression to the mean.

“If we’re coming out of camp healthy, then we are starting out on a lot better foot than we did last year,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said.

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It’s the biggest reason to think the Phillies will be a much better team this April than we saw last year. Not only were Harper and Suárez both hurt for opening day, the team lost its starting first baseman for the season when Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL a week before the season.

Thomson is smart to factor the Phillies’ past struggles into his handling of the team over this last week-and-a-half. That said, it is difficult to simulate the act of facing pitchers like Strider, Fried, and Sale with a real game on the line.There’s only so much you can do before you actually get a chance to do it.