NL Division Series: Five subplots to Phillies vs. Braves

ST. LOUIS — For years, Rhys Hoskins walked by the same photo on his way into the Phillies’ spring-training clubhouse. It was a wide-angle, panoramic shot of Citizens Bank Park a few moments after the clinching out of the 2008 World Series. The place is packed. Everyone is standing. It’s mayhem.

“I can see it in my head,” Hoskins said Saturday night, eyes shut, beer goggles low on his forehead.

Hoskins is about to actually experience it.

The Phillies are coming home. To play in a postseason game. For real. They will host the Atlanta Braves on Friday in Game 3 of the National League Division Series — and Game 4, if necessary, on Saturday. Put it in your calendar. Set a reminder. It will mark the return of postseason baseball to Philadelphia after 4,025 days.

But first, before the Phillies touch down from what will have been a 17-day, five-city odyssey, they must play two games in Atlanta. And say this for a best-of-five series against the defending World Series champs: There won’t be any surprises.

“We were back and forth all year with those guys,” Hoskins said after the Phillies swept the St. Louis Cardinals out of the wild-card round. “I have no doubt that it’s going to be a back-and-forth series.”

Said Bryce Harper: “We know them well, they know us well.”

» READ MORE: ‘We are not losing this game’: How Bryce Harper’s mantra is setting a tone for the Phillies

Indeed, as division rivals, the Phillies and Braves played 19 times in the regular season. The Braves won 11 of those meetings. But seven games were decided by two runs or less. The Braves scored 88 runs; the Phillies 85.

“They’re really good,” interim manager Rob Thomson said. “They hit a lot of home runs. They score runs. They’ve got good starting pitchers and a good bullpen. They’re the defending world champions. Until you beat them, they’re the world champions.”

Here are five subplots to watch once the series gets underway:

In ousting the Cardinals and booting Albert Pujols into retirement, the Phillies stuck to their plan. Zack Wheeler tossed 6⅓ innings in Game 1 before Aaron Nola held St. Louis scoreless for 6⅔ innings in Game 2.

Wheeler, and Nola, and it’s all o-vah.

Just as the Phillies scripted it.

The rotation lines up nearly as well for the Braves series. Wheeler, an Atlanta native who has a 2.04 ERA in 10 starts against his hometown team since joining the Phillies in 2020, will start Game 2 on regular rest. Nola, who tossed back-to-back gems in clinching games six days apart, will go in Game 3 with one extra day of rest. Ranger Suárez is scheduled to start Game 1 and possibly Game 5.

» READ MORE: Phillies World Series odds on the move after advancing to NLDS

Thanks to a bye through the wild-card round, the Braves can arrange a rested rotation however they want. They likely will use ace lefty Max Fried, 21-game winner Kyle Wright, and veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, in some order.

But the key to the whole thing may be fire-breathing rookie right-hander Spencer Strider.

Strider hasn’t pitched since Sept. 18 because of a strained oblique muscle in his left side. The Braves are hopeful that he’ll be ready to return, although they were withholding a decision until after the weekend.

In four appearances (three starts) against the Phillies, Strider allowed a total of three runs and piled up 34 strikeouts in 21⅓ innings. His fastball ranges from 97 to 99 mph and is, to use Alec Bohm’s words, “different.”

“It’s not like a normal fastball,” Bohm said in July. “People probably watch and think, ‘Oh, he’s just throwing fastballs. Just hit it.’ It’s not that simple. The thing just comes out different.”

The Phillies survived the Cardinals even though Hoskins went 0-for-9 with three strikeouts, Nick Castellanos finished 0-for-7 with two whiffs, and J.T. Realmuto was 1-for-6.

In this series, those numbers would be lethal.

The Braves have an abundance of left-handed pitching, especially in the bullpen. In the latter half of a game, manager Brian Snitker can call upon A.J. Minter (2.06 ERA in the regular season), Dylan Lee (2.13), and Tyler Matzek (3.50).

Jean Segura and Bohm are capable of coming up with big hits from the right side. Segura had the go-ahead single in the Phillies’ improbable Game 1 comeback in St. Louis. But Hoskins, Castellanos, and Realmuto represent their right-handed power and the offsets to lefty sluggers Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies need at least one of them to get hot.

Thomson used only four relievers against the Cardinals. José Alvarado and Zach Eflin appeared in both games, while David Robertson pitched a scoreless inning in Game 1 and Seranthony Domínguez got two huge outs in Game 2.

The Phillies have tried to limit the exposure to Robertson and Domínguez in recent weeks, as both dealt with control problems. But with the potential for five games in four days, there won’t be much choice but to use them often against the Braves, especially righty-hitting stars Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuña Jr., and William Contreras.

It’s likely the Phillies will need to dip into their third tier of relievers, too, with Connor Brogdon and lefty Brad Hand.

But Thomson’s ninth-inning preference is becoming clear. Eflin closed out the playoff-clinching victory last Monday night in Houston and pitched on back-to-back days for the first time ever against the Cardinals. He tightrope-walked to a Game 2 save, giving up back-to-back, two-out singles to Corey Dickerson and Yadier Molina before getting Tommy Edman to foul out.

“There’s no heartbeat there,” Thomson said. “It just doesn’t flutter. It just stays right there. And I trust him almost in any situation.”

When the Braves played four games in Citizens Bank Park last month, Acuña didn’t get off the bench until the eighth inning of the series finale because of back spasms. But the 24-year-old star right fielder wound up driving in the go-ahead run and scoring the winning run in the 11th inning of an 8-7 victory.

Acuña had a relatively ordinary season, at least by his standards. After missing the second half of last season and the playoffs because of a torn knee ligament, he batted .266 with 15 homers, 29 stolen bases, and a .764 on-base percentage. The Braves got bigger seasons from Riley (38 homers, .878 OPS), Swanson (25 homers, .776 OPS), Matt Olson (34 homers, .802 OPS), and Rookie of the Year candidate Michael Harris II (19 homers, .853 OPS).

But Acuña is able to impact a game as much as any player in baseball. The Phillies have seen it firsthand. They’d rather not see it now.

» READ MORE: Bring on the Braves: Phillies show they have World Series stuff with sweep of Cardinals

Before the Phillies’ regular-season home finale, Schwarber addressed the crowd. He didn’t make any promises but vowed that the Phillies would “keep this thing going for you guys.”

Now that this long and winding road trip is going to lead back home, what will await the Phillies when they get there? Will a fan base that has seemed reluctant to invest fully in a team that provided little to cheer about for 11 years finally begin to believe again?

“Man, I hope they believe,” Hoskins said. “Look, we knew that if we got in, we knew we had a chance. God, the place is going to be rocking. All that stuff that I’ve heard about ‘Red October,’ let’s go. Bring it on.”