Phillies face long odds in NLDS, but four key stats show how they can beat the Braves

Bryce Harper has been at his best in Atlanta. Braves starters have been at their worst on long rest. Those numbers and more, may matter.

Bryce Harper has a .950 OPS with 12 home runs in 190 career plate appearances at Truist Park in Atlanta.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by David Murphy | Columnist

Published Oct. 10, 2022, 3:25 p.m. ET

ATLANTA — The Braves are not the Cardinals. If the uniforms didn’t give it away, just look at the matchups. There’s a reason the Phillies will enter Game 1 of the National League Division Series as heavy underdogs to reach their first National League Championship Series since that brutal loss to Cody Ross and the Giants in 2010.

It starts with pitching. And the pitching will start with Max Fried.

While the Cardinals were essentially forced to pick between four No. 3 starters when deciding whom to match up against Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in last weekend’s wild-card series, the Braves feature a trio of young arms who each has the makings of an ace. In Games 1 and 2, the Phillies will square off against Max Fried and Kyle Wright, who have combined to hold opponents under two runs in 38 of their 60 starts this season.

As for Game 3, the Braves have yet to announce a starter, but 23-year-old rookie Spencer Strider might have been the most talented pitcher on the whole staff before an oblique injury cost him the last two weeks of the regular season. Since moving into the rotation in early June, the righty has held opposing hitters to a .180/.249/.265 batting line with a 2.62 ERA, 158 strikeouts, and 32 walks in 103 innings. In his last seven starts, Strider has allowed two home runs and 11 walks in 42 innings while posting a 1.71 ERA with a 13.7 strikeouts-per-nine average. The Braves have won six of those seven games. If Strider can’t go, the Braves can call on the battle-tested Charlie Morton.

Even better might be the Braves bullpen, which features four veteran setup men with strikeout stuff and ERAs under 2.75, plus closer Kenley Jansen, who is coming off a regular season in which he saved 41 games with a 3.38 ERA while striking out 12.0 batters per nine.

Daunting? Sure. But there is a path to victory, and this is what it looks like.

1. Braves starters have been 20% worse while pitching on six-plus days of rest than they have while pitching on four days of rest.

Before the Cardinals series, I was talking to someone in the Phillies’ baseball ops department who said they were interested to see how the Dodgers and the Braves would respond to going five days between the end of the regular season and their first playoff game. Baseball is a sport in which rest can be a double-edged sword.

Look at the ERA of Braves starters this season based on the days of rest they have before an outing:

Four days of rest: 3.37 ERA, 2.79 strikeouts per walk
Five days of rest: 3.79 ERA, 3.52 strikeouts per walk
Six days of rest: 4.04 ERA, 2.75 strikeouts per walk

Fried hasn’t pitched in a regulation game since Sept. 30. Wright’s last start came on Oct. 1. That’s a layoff of 10 days for both. Strider hasn’t pitched since Sept. 18 because of the oblique injury.

Fried’s splits are especially pronounced. On four or five days’ rest, the 28-year-old lefty has averaged 6.25 innings per outing with a 2.21 ERA. On six-plus days’ rest, he has averaged 5.78 innings per outing and a 3.63 ERA.

Truth is, we have no idea how this year’s new playoff format will impact the higher-seeded teams. At the very least, it is an unknown variable.

2. Since joining the Phillies, Wheeler has a 2.03 ERA in 10 starts against the Braves.

Not only that, but he has recorded an average of 20 outs in those starts. That’s nearly seven innings per start. This year, the Phillies beat the Braves in two of Wheeler’s three regular-season starts. In those outings, Atlanta scored a total of nine runs, six of them against Wheeler, who struck out 25 and walked only one in 20 innings.

Nola hasn’t been as dominant, but the Phillies are 3-2 in his five outings. The Game 3 starter has a 3.67 ERA against the Braves with 41 strikeouts and seven walks in 34⅓ innings. Limiting the long ball will be key for Nola: Atlanta has five home runs against him this year.

Having Wheeler on the mound in Game 2 has a chance to be a huge equalizer in the series. Split in Atlanta, and you’ll have Nola on the mound in Game 3 pitching at Citizens Bank Park in the Phillies’ first home playoff game since Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS.

3. In 190 career plate appearances at Truist Park in Atlanta, Bryce Harper has a .950 OPS with 23 extra-base hits, 12 of them home runs.

The Phillies have spent much of the last month waiting for their MVP to get hot. After returning from the injured list in late August, Harper hit just three home runs while batting .227/.325/.352 in his last 151 plate appearances of the regular season. Was his second-inning home run in Game 2 against the Braves the start of one of his epic hot streaks? If so, it could change the complexion of the series against the Braves.

“If he gets hot, we’re going to be really dangerous,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said after Game 2. “So that’s what we’re waiting for is for him to go on one of those streaks where he’s hitting everything, and whether it gets there or not, I don’t know, but if he gets there, yeah, it’s going to be — it’s going to be special.”

4. Rhys Hoskins was 0-for-9 with three strikeouts against the Cardinals. In 17 games against the Braves this season, he is hitting .246/.319/.492 with 24 strikeouts and three home runs in 65 at-bats.

For the Phillies to have any chance in Game 1 and a potential Game 5, they’ll likely need Hoskins’ right-handed bat to show up against the lefty starter Fried and lefty relievers A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee. Hoskins has one hit in his last 28 at-bats dating back to the regular season. He’s a player who has epitomized the Phillies’ later rebuilding stages. He would do wonders for a legacy with a big series against the Braves.