Rivalries, X-factors, and predictions: A Phillies-Braves NLDS preview with Alex Coffey and the AJC’s Justin Toscano

Prior to Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the Phillies and Braves, Inquirer beat writer Alex Coffey caught up with her Atlanta counterpart, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, to discuss the rivalry between these two N.L. East foes, identify the players who could make the biggest impact, and offer up some predictions for this best-of-five series.

Here are some highlights of their conversation, but be sure to check out the entire thing in the video above ...

Alex Coffey: How much of a factor do you think the rivalry between these two teams is going to be heading into this NLDS, especially after last year’s postseason?

Justing Toscano: Yeah, it’s big. I think when we’re in the interview room today, the people we talk to aren’t going to say it publicly. They don’t want to give bulletin board material, but I think it’s huge, right? These are two teams that have seen a lot of each other in the same division, saw each other last postseason. The Phillies have kind of seen how the Braves have built their roster. The Braves have seen how the Phillies have been on the come up. I think it’s a big thing that there’s familiarity, right? Like, I think the Phillies haven’t fared well against Spencer Strider, but they’ve seen him eight times. The Braves have seen Aaron Nola a lot. They’ve seen Zack Wheeler a lot, despite Zack’s success against the Braves.

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So I think it’s huge. And I think the interesting dynamic is like — I’m sure you guys have covered a lot of the same storylines you did last October because there aren’t a ton of differences in this series because it’s the two same teams who have only gotten better. But I think the difference is that it feels like the Phillies have arrived. Like, I think that’s one of the thing from the Braves side that’s interesting is the Braves, this historic offense, the best team in baseball, that if it doesn’t end with the World Series, it’s kind of going to be viewed as all for naught. But the Phillies are, I mean, the Phillies are getting a lot of the attention, it feels like, before this series.

So to me, that’s really the interesting part is it seems like the Phillies are kind of known now for what they did last October. And it almost feels like it’s taken a little bit of shine off the Braves. Not in a bad way. I wonder if that just takes a little bit of pressure off the Braves because they have seen the Phillies so much and they know that, yeah, as much as it’s a World Series-or-bust for them, it’s it seems like everybody is really talking about the Phillies.

» READ MORE: NLDS preview: 25 things to know about the Braves going into their matchup vs. the Phillies

Coffey: Yeah, definitely. And I would say that while the the records are different — I think the Braves won 14 more regular-season games than the Phillies did — I feel like when you look in between the lines and look beyond what you see on paper, these teams aren’t as different as the records might suggest, just because, Trea Turner wasn’t Trea Turner in the first half and then Bryce Harper was still getting his power about after he got Tommy John surgery in the offseason and those guys are looking more like themselves. So it’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out. But I definitely think the Phillies thrive in this underdog-type, like chip-on-your-shoulder, us-against-the-world-type role.

So even though people are talking about them, I feel like they might have the mindset of, no one expects us to be here, everyone hates us and we don’t care, kind of that kind of vibe.

Coffey: The second question I wanted to ask you is, who do you think is going to be the biggest difference maker on the Braves? Like which player, if you had to pick one, would be the the most pivotal player entering this NLDS.

Toscano: To me, it’s got to be Strider because he’s 8-0 against the Phillies with a sub-two ERA. Obviously, he had that start last postseason that didn’t go so well at Citizens Bank Park, but he was coming off the oblique injury. I think one of the interesting parts of the series is that these teams kind of have the same paths to victory, like they’re both great offenses, but I think it’s going to be truly like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola versus Spencer Strider and Max Fried, and whoever can really get the most out of their front-line guys probably has the advantage here. ...

» READ MORE: Those famous standing ovations for Trea Turner energized him — and fired up the Phillies as well | Marcus Hayes

But I’m curious I mean looking at the Phillies there’s so much star power over there, but kind of some X-factor guys too, at least as I look at them. Who do you think one or two of those guys that’s really going to decide the series is?

Coffey: So I think it’s two guys, and one is a star: Bryce Harper. He wasn’t hitting the way we’re used to seeing him hit over the two games in the National League wild-card series, so I think seeing a resurgence from him in the NLDS would be big for the Phillies.

But the one I’m more interested in is Orion Kerkering, who is a rookie. He jumped from low-A to the big leagues in the span of one year, this season, and he’s someone that the Braves aren’t familiar with. You know, as my beat partner, Scott Lauber, wrote recently, there aren’t many secrets between these two teams, they’ve seen each other a lot, they’ve played each other a lot. But Orion Kerkering is someone that the Braves haven’t seen.

He’s got this nasty slider with a ton of movement, and he pairs it with a fastball that hits 99-100 [mph]. So I’m curious to see whether or not that can neutralize some of the Braves right-handed power bats.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper asked José Alvarado to make him a necklace. Now all the Phillies have them.

Coffey: And then last question for you, Justin. What are your predictions going into this going into this series? How do you think it’s going to end up?

Toscano: I understand, like, there are a lot of Braves fans who are very scared about this series. I think it’s Braves in five, though. I think the Braves are good enough to overcome losing last year. I don’t think they lose the Phillies two years in a row and I don’t think — I don’t see this historic season, with one of the best teams maybe ever ending in the NLDS. Granted, because of the seeding (and not reseeding), the Braves have to play the Phillies in the NLDS instead of later in the postseason.

But, I think it’s Braves in five. And what swings it is the home-field advantage. I think both teams kind of take care of their home turf and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies win ... I was very close to picking the Phillies because I do think that much of the Phillies and I think the Phillies have a certain edge to them that I don’t think a lot of teams have. Like the Phillies kind of know how to, for a sports cliche, like how to rip your heart out, to kind of stand up in those big moments. They’re relentless — the Braves are like that [too], and I think game five being at Truist Park is what sets us apart.

» READ MORE: Phillies or Braves? Our predictions for the NL Division Series

Coffey: I’m going to take Phillies in four. It’s funny because I feel like all the discourse right now, even from some of the players, is like, “Just take one in Atlanta; just take one; split in Atlanta. Like, don’t put too much pressure on, you know, like that. That’s kind of the game plan heading down here. And I feel like with the way some of their starters are looking right now, you know, especially Wheeler, who’s always pitched well against the Braves, I feel like they have a decent shot to do that.

And then once you get back to Philadelphia and Citizens Bank Park, it’s — I don’t know, based on what I’ve seen, it’s hard to imagine them losing there. I guess, you know, anything is possible. But right now I’m thinking Phillies in four, that’s my prediction.