Red-hot Ranger Suárez has a chance to take a step toward ace-hood against Spencer Strider and the Braves

Ever since Ranger Suárez showed up in 2021 with a couple of extra ticks on his fastball, the lefty has given the Phillies plenty of reason to wonder whether they had something more than a mid-rotation starter on their hands.

Early last postseason, when Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler were dominating the conversation, there was a moment when Dave Dombrowski went out of his way to throw Suárez’s name into the mix.

“Nobody talks about our No. 3,” the Phillies president said, “but we think he’s pretty good.”

Eight months later, Suárez will get his best chance yet to alter that conversation when he takes the mound against Braves ace Spencer Strider on Tuesday night.

Nobody has done more to rejuvenate the red-hot Phillies than Suárez over the past few weeks. In his last four starts, the 27-year-old lefty has allowed a total of four runs in 26⅔ innings. The Phillies have won three of those four starts, and 13 of the 20 games in between them. The rate stats are sparkling: 22 strikeouts, seven walks, one home run, a 1.21 groundball-flyball ratio.

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You can make the argument that Suárez is the pitcher you’d most want on the mound for a series opener of this magnitude. Me? I won’t make that argument yet. But that might change by the end of Tuesday night. Suárez doesn’t have the dominant stuff of Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola. Lately, though, he’s had a consistency that both have lacked. Dating back to last season, he has logged quality starts in seven of his last 12 outings, the only exceptions that 2022 regular-season finale and his first three starts of this season.

Consider the following:

Aaron Nola over his last 26 outings: 4.19 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 154⅔ IP

Ranger Suárez over his last 26 outings: 3.01 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 128⅔ IP

Keep in mind, those numbers include: 1) a couple of postseason relief appearances; 2) three straight shaky outings off the injured list last month; and 3) a post-clinch start in Game 161 last October when the entire team may have been legally incapable of operating heavy machinery.

Remove those outings from the equation, and Suárez’s ERA drops to a minuscule 1.99, while averaging nearly six innings per start.

Granted, that’s a lot of qualifications, and qualifications do matter. Even mentioning Suárez’s name next to Nola’s does a disservice to the things that Nola has accomplished. The best ability is availability. A starter’s No. 1 responsibility is to be ready to take the ball every five days. Nola has done that every five days for the last six years: 32-plus starts and 180-plus innings every season except the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.

Even this year, with his ERA up and his strikeout rate down and the big innings coming like midnight raids, Nola is still the guy who holds the pitching staff together. He’s gone at least six innings in 13 of his 15 starts. He has four starts of seven-plus innings and three or fewer runs. Only two pitchers in the majors have logged more than his 94⅔ innings.

Suárez isn’t there yet. He missed the first month-and-a-half this season with a forearm issue. He missed time with a back injury last season. He finished the 2022 regular season with 155⅓ innings, a career high.

That said, look at what Suárez has done when he’s been healthy over the last calendar year or so: quality starts in seven of his last 12 regular-season outings, a 1.23 ERA last postseason as a do-anything starter-reliever hybrid. The only blemishes have been that 2022 regular-season finale and his first three starts of this season.

Of all the injuries the Phillies suffered over the first month-and-a-half of the season, Suárez was the guy they missed most. Now, not only is he back, but he’s got a little extra life on his fastball, an effective curveball, and complete command of the strike zone.

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A nice little run? Or the makings of a guy who can go toe-to-toe with a fireballer like Strider?

It’s a big moment. They don’t get much bigger this time of year. The Phillies are four games over .500, winners of six straight and 13 of 15. But the Nationals, Tigers, and A’s are gone. Against the Braves, they have a chance to make the NL East a race. This is the last time they’ll face Atlanta before September. They can put themselves five back or 11 back, or somewhere in between.

It all starts with Game 1. It all starts with Suárez.

Is there anyone else the Phillies would want out there right now?

They’re about to find out.