Phillies’ Bryce Harper will have elbow surgery next week

Until the Phillies actually won the pennant, their most astonishing achievement this year was withstanding the loss of Bryce Harper.

They will need to do it again.

After months of speculation, Harper will undergo surgery on the damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow that prevented him from throwing since the middle of April, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced Wednesday.

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The extent of the surgery — a full-scale ligament reconstruction, known colloquially as “Tommy John surgery,” or a repair of the existing ligament — won’t be ascertained until Harper is on the operating table. Further, the Phillies won’t know when to expect their superstar slugger to return until after Dr. Neal ElAttrache performs the surgery next Wednesday in Los Angeles.

But three things seem clear:

1. Harper will play next season.

2. It’s doubtful he will be ready by opening day.

3. The Phillies must figure out how to replace Harper for at least one month, maybe longer, as they did this season when he missed two months with a broken left thumb.

“I would think it will slow him down for the season,” Dombrowski said. “But we’ll know more next week.”

Pitchers who have Tommy John surgery are typically sidelined for 12 to 15 months. The recovery for position players is usually in the six- to eight-month range. And a cursory look at players who had elbow surgery reveals varying timetables depending on the nature of the procedure.

Rhys Hoskins had a ligament repair, known as an “internal brace,” on Oct. 2, 2020, and was back less than five months later for spring training. Shohei Ohtani had a Tommy John-style reconstruction on Oct. 1, 2018, and missed seven months, returning as a designated hitter on May 7, 2019. Didi Gregorius had Tommy John surgery on Oct. 17, 2018, and came back to play shortstop on June 7, 2019.

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Based on those examples, and given the Phillies’ late start to the offseason after their World Series run, it would seem Harper won’t return even as a designated hitter until mid-April, at the earliest — and perhaps not until the end of June if the ligament needs to be reconstructed. It could be longer before he’s back in right field.

Harper, 30, batted .286/.364/.514 with 28 doubles and 18 homers in 426 plate appearances despite missing 52 games with the broken thumb and struggling upon his return. He dominated the postseason, going 22-for-63 (.349) with six homers, including the pennant-clinching two-run shot against the San Diego Padres.

It goes without saying that his production won’t be easily replaced.

But Dombrowski said Harper’s absence won’t drastically change the Phillies’ offseason priorities, which remain focused on the star-studded shortstop market, recasting the bullpen around José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez, and adding at least one starter to the middle of the rotation.

“In the back of our mind, there will be discussions of, what do we do if [Harper misses several months], which may be nothing,” Dombrowski said. “Because right now, we’re looking at him coming back and DHing at some portion of [the season]. We have other players that can DH.”

The Phillies went 32-20 during Harper’s two-month absence this year by getting contributions from unexpected sources. Darick Hall, for instance, hit nine homers and slugged .522 after getting called up from triple A to be the DH against mostly right-handed pitching.

If Hall is one option, manager Rob Thomson suggested another: Move Hoskins to DH and Alec Bohm to first base, and play slick-fielding Edmundo Sosa at third, a scenario that presumes the Phillies sign a free-agent shortstop, such as Trea Turner.

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“You don’t ever want to lose Bryce,” Thomson said. “He’s one of the best hitters in baseball, if not the best. But we spent a lot of time last year without him and guys responded, and it gave opportunities to other people to step up and they did. So, while we will be missing him and looking forward to getting him back, it’ll give somebody else an opportunity.”

Whatever the Phillies decide, they likely will need Nick Castellanos to handle the bulk of the playing time in right field for the first few months of the season. Castellanos, who isn’t regarded as a good defensive outfielder, was the primary right fielder after Harper got injured in April.

It’s unclear exactly when Harper was injured, although he winced and flexed his arm after making a throw to the plate on April 11 at Citizens Bank Park. He was the DH the following game, then played four consecutive games in right field.

But as the Phillies opened a three-game series in Colorado on April 18, they announced that Harper would be shut down from throwing for one week because of what then-manager Joe Girardi initially termed “a little tendinitis.” A few days later, Harper underwent an MRI exam that revealed a strain in the flexor mass, a group of muscles and tendons near the junction of the forearm and elbow.

When the “achy” feeling, as Harper described it, didn’t abate, the Phillies ordered additional tests that showed a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of the elbow. Harper received a platelet-rich plasma injection May 17 and continued to DH until June 25, when he got hit by a pitch that broke his left thumb.

Harper wasn’t permitted to test his elbow until after he got the pins removed from his thumb. By then, the Phillies’ priority was to get Harper back in the lineup in any capacity. But when he did finally attempt some light throwing in early August, he still felt discomfort and agreed to table any further discussion of playing right field until after the season.

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The issue didn’t come up again until several weeks later for the best possible reason: a Harper-powered run to the World Series.

Harper underwent an MRI that was reviewed by Phillies doctors. Head athletic trainer Paul Buchheit met Harper in Los Angeles on Monday for a consultation with ElAttrache, who also saw Harper in June about his thumb.

The consensus: Surgery was the best option to resolve the elbow issue, at long last.

And now, it will eat into his 2023 season.

How much? Stay tuned.

“Everybody’s ligament is different on where it could be torn and how much of a tear it is,” Dombrowski said. “Until they get in there, we’re really not sure.”