The Phillies don’t want to move Bryce Harper back to the outfield. Given the free-agent alternatives to Juan Soto, maybe they should.
The first base market has a stronger options.
As Bryce Harper began his first spring training as a first baseman, he was asked if his days as an outfielder are definitely, 100 percent over.
“I don’t think I’ll move back out there,” he said in February. “I don’t. But never say never.”
The Phillies should strongly consider it.
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So far, it hasn’t come up. Not seriously. When the Phillies moved Harper to first base full-time last offseason, he let them know he wouldn’t be opposed to someday going back to his old position. But they haven’t asked him, even as they look everywhere for outfield help.
“At this stage of his career, how he has adjusted to the position,” Dave Dombrowski said at the general managers’ meetings, “that’s not a preference.”
It made sense in April 2023, when Harper, recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery, raised his hand to learn first base after the Phillies lost Rhys Hoskins to a season-ending ACL tear. And it was reasonable that Harper, entering his age-31 season, stayed at first this year, opening the DH spot for Kyle Schwarber and left and center field for Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas. Nobody can deny the Phillies were better defensively.
Harper adapted well. He recorded eight outs above average among first basemen, according to Statcast, and was a Gold Glove finalist. He also started 145 games, his highest total since 2019. Long-term, first base is probably easier on his body.
But the Phillies are looking to transform their lineup by adding a hitter who swings at fewer pitches out of the strike zone. Dombrowski said the outfield is the most “obvious” place for an upgrade, but the free-agent market isn’t overly appealing beyond Juan Soto. The trade market isn’t much better.
Consider it a sign of the times. Across the sport, outfielders totaled a .715 OPS this season, the 10th-lowest mark at the position since 1912. Six of the seasons that were worse were in the dead-ball era; another was 1968, the infamous “Year of the Pitcher.” In the last 50 years, only 2022 produced less offense from outfielders (.709).
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Soto is reportedly collecting offers from the Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and incumbent Yankees. Unless the Phillies swoop in late with the winning bid — not likely, based on owner John Middleton’s belief that they would be little more than a “stalking horse” because Soto prefers to play in New York — there isn’t a perfect solution to help the outfield.
Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander are in the next tier of free agents. But their big-time power is mitigated by aggressive swing-and-miss tendencies. The Phillies looked into Hernández (among others) at the trade deadline in 2023 but decided he would have been redundant.
And the drop-off from Hernández and Santander is steep.
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Harper’s bat — .898 OPS last season, .911 for his career — plays at all positions. But given the landscape of outfield offense and the class of free-agent first basemen (Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, even Paul Goldschmidt on a potential one-year deal) and possible trade candidates (Tampa Bay’s Yandy Díaz, Cleveland’s Josh Naylor, Boston’s Tristan Casas, and Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe), a case can be made that Harper is even more valuable in the outfield, at least in 2025.
“I can’t say that we’d never do it,” Dombrowski said. “But it’s not something that we are thinking of or wanting to do.”
In that case, here are a few free-agent outfielders who, despite their flaws, have elements of a skill set that could make sense for the Phillies.
Jurickson Profar
A decade late, but just in time for another swing at free agency, Profar lived up to the top-prospect-in-baseball/star-in-the-making billing.
Now, can he do it for more than one season?
That’s the biggest question among teams with interest in Profar. In 10 previous seasons, the switch-hitter batted .238 with a .706 OPS and was 8% worse than league average based on OPS+. The Padres took a $1 million flier to re-sign him in spring training, and he became one of the most productive outfielders in the majors: .280, 24 homers, .839 OPS, 37% better than league average.
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Profar’s turnaround, at age 31, can be traced to last offseason in the Dominican Republic, according to Padres general manager A.J. Preller. Profar played winter ball for a team managed by former infielder Fernando Tatís Sr., who helped him make adjustments to his pre-swing balance and rhythm. It translated to a 44.4% hard-hit rate this year, up from his career mark of 33.5%.
“He played winter ball the entire [offseason], which you don’t see guys do, and from minute one he really came in ultra-prepared,” Preller said at the GM meetings. “It felt like the ball was coming off his bat better. He’s always been a guy that battles and knows the strike zone well. But his ability to square up the ball and do a little bit more damage [was] maybe slightly [better]. He had a tremendous year.”
Profar wants to stay in San Diego but didn’t receive the $21.05 million qualifying offer from the payroll-trimming Padres. He’s a below-average defender in left field. But his strike-zone awareness should appeal to the Phillies. He swung at 21.9% of pitches out of the zone, far better than the average across the sport (28.5%) and especially among Phillies hitters (30.3%). It also wasn’t out of whack from his rates in 2022 (23.7%) and 2021 (22.5%) — or even his career 25.2% rate.
That’s something to bet on, regardless of whether Profar ever duplicates his 2024 results.
Tyler O’Neill
For an agent who doesn’t pass up a chance to take a swing at a play on words, the question about interest in O’Neill represented a layup for Boras.
“Well, if anyone’s seen the structure and stature of Tyler,” Boras said, “you know he can carry an offense.”
O’Neill is jacked, to be sure. And with that bodybuilder’s physique, he smashed 31 homers in 411 at-bats this season for the Red Sox, his second 30-homer season. With a .483 slugging percentage since 2021, he ranks 15th among 97 right-handed hitters (minimum 1,500 plate appearances).
Yet the loaded-with-lefties Red Sox didn’t make the qualifying offer to O’Neill. The 29-year-old missed 49 games because of multiple injuries, including a leg infection. He has made 500 plate appearances in a season only once in his career.
But it isn’t only health that has cut into O’Neill’s playing time. He batted .209 with a .693 OPS against righties last season, compared with .313 and 1.180 vs. lefties. His career splits are less extreme, though still lopsided: .239/.751 against righties, .270/.923 vs. lefties.
And with his high strikeout rate (33.6% this year, 30.8% career), he has many of the same traits as Marsh, only from the right side and with more power.
Michael Conforto
If Conforto hadn’t injured his shoulder while training during the owners’ lockout in the 2021-22 offseason, he would have been part of the free-agent signing spree in spring training. (The Phillies locked up fellow outfielders Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.)
Instead, Conforto had surgery and missed the 2022 season.
A year later, he signed a two-year, $36 million contract with the Giants. The second season was better than the first for Conforto, back on the market after slugging .529 with 10 homers and an .859 OPS in August and September.
Conforto, who came up in the Mets’ farm system with close friend Zack Wheeler, will turn 32 in March. If he’s finally approximating his pre-surgery form, he may be able to provide middle-of-the-order pop from the left side of the plate.
But the Phillies‘ interest would stem from Conforto’s strike-zone discipline, much like Profar’s. He had an out-of-the-zone swing rate of 24.4% over the last two seasons, which would provide a different look from Castellanos, Trea Turner, and other aggressive Phillies hitters.
Conforto is imperfect, like every other non-Soto option. But short of moving Harper’s big bat back to the outfield and backfilling at first base, it’s unclear how the Phillies will do much better.