The Phillies, facing a brutal run, need Bryce Harper to make an MVP push to earn the No. 1 seed

Over a recent 16-game stretch, Trea Turner hit .145 with a .172 on-base percentage and a .177 slugging percentage. Rob Thomson benched him Wednesday. The Phillies won that game. Turner returned Thursday. In the next four games he went 10-for-17 with a homer and three doubles, his best four-game stretch since April 16-20, in a season that has seen him carry a batting average of .349 as late as July 14. The Phillies won three of those four games.

Over his last 32 starts, since returning from a hamstring injury, Bryce Harper is hitting .222 with a .721 OPS, thanks largely to his six homers. That’s down from .306 and .981, numbers that, in that moment, made him a candidate for a third NL MVP award. He’s fourth in OPS, at .902, and sixth in home runs, at 26, so he still has an outside chance to make an MVP run.

Making such a run over the crucible of these next two weeks would serve both Harper and the Phillies well.

They begin a difficult 13-game stretch that starts in Atlanta and moves to Kansas City, then return to Citizens Bank Park for three against the Houston Astros and four against the Braves. The Phillies have flirted with the best record in baseball most of the season, but the Braves are right behind them in the NL East. The Astros lead the AL Central. The Royals hold the final wild-card spot in the American League.

Every win matters.

Well, sort of.

Thomson took heat after Sunday’s 6-4 loss to Washington when he refused to pinch hit Harper or catcher J.T. Realmuto in the ninth inning, trailing by two runs with no outs. The Phillies did not score. Thomson did not waver.

“That’s what I’m thinking about. This is going to be a tough stretch, no doubt, and we’ve got to be able to handle it,” Thomson said. “We want to get healthy bodies, and rested bodies, so we give ourselves every chance to play well.”

It’s the toughest competition the Phillies will face the rest of the season. The best record in baseball, at the end of the season, would earn them a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the World Series.

That won’t happen if the Showman doesn’t start showing up.

It’s August, and Harper is 31, playing first base, a new position for him, and probably more taxing than right field. He should be tired; lately, he looks it. His swing is late and off-balance. He went zero-for-7 on Friday and Saturday.

“[His] timing’s off a little bit. That’s usually what it is with him,” said Thomson, who should know: He’s been the bench coach or manager since Harper arrived in Philadelphia in 2019.

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When Harper’s timing is off, his swing gets violent.

“He starts overswinging at times. Gets into a little bit of a bad habit,” Thomson said. “I think a couple of days off will help.”

Turner also is 31, and sitting seemed to do him good.

Thomson sat Harper on Sunday. Not coincidentally, the Phillies were off Monday.

Sitting helped Turner. But Turner, despite his $300 million contract and his .311 batting average, is never going to be an MVP candidate. He’ll never carry a ballclub.

Harper has carried the Phillies for weeks at a time.

In May and June he hit .342 with 14 homers and a 1.076 OPS, and the club went 32-17. In his last 40 games last season he hit .311 with 14 home runs and a 1.149 OPS as the Phillies finished 24-16. His batting average and OPS in the Phillies’ last two playoff runs are an insane .324 and 1.137, respectively. He had 11 home runs in those 30 playoff games, in which the Phils went 19-11.

Winning an MVP never is Harper’s objective. Winning the World Series always is.

If he breaks out over the next two weeks, both results become much more likely.

After all, the Phillies are back, aren’t they?

They started the second half 5-16 but now have won four of five. A team meeting before Wednesday’s win seemed to reset the hitters, fielders, and bullpen — right, Rob?

“Well, we’re playing better baseball, that’s for sure. They’ve got their energy back. They’re playing hard. And, for the most part, playing well.”

He said it with all due respect to the unseen mystic powers that seem to govern the game.

“I believe in the baseball gods,” Thomson said. He knows they have a vengeful sense of humor; as soon as you think things are going well, they tend to intercede.

Unverified forces aside, the Phillies’ rotation could hardly line up better. In the 13-game stretch, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez all will start three times, assuming Sánchez rebounds from his 99-pitch complete game in time for Game 3 in Atlanta.

(I can’t believe I just wrote that Sánchez, a 27-year-old, lanky, left-handed starter, might need an extra day of rest after throwing fewer than 100 pitches. As recently as 2011, 27-year-old lanky left-hander Cole Hamels threw at least 99 pitches in 22 of his 33 starts, including playoffs, and finished with the second-lowest ERA of his distinguished career. But I digress.)

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Wheeler has allowed two runs or fewer in 19 of his 24 starts. Nola, 15 of 25. Sánchez, 16 of 24.

“I feel good” entering the next two weeks, Nola said before the team flew out Sunday evening. “Just got to take it game by game. It’s gonna be a grind and a challenge.”

The news gets better. All-Star lefty Ranger Suárez might return from his second back-related absence in the middle of the 13-game run, which might give him two starts. Also, Taijuan Walker is a pitcher.

No matter how well the starters perform, the Phillies still need to score runs. They score best and they win most when Harper’s at his best.

After spending a warm Sunday afternoon cooling his heels, he should be ready to heat up over the next two weeks.