The Phillies’ reliever numbers don’t add up now, but that’s part of Dave Dombrowski’s bullpen-building calculation

As long as it still takes one plus one to equal two, then the accounting of the Phillies’ late-inning pitchers doesn’t add up.

Because although the Phillies signed Jordan Romano and (checks notes) no one else to replace free agents Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, Dave Dombrowski maintains the back of the bullpen is “pretty well set.” It’s almost as if Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, and Estévez aren’t available on the frozen closer market, or the Astros haven’t been trying to trade Ryan Pressly.

“Right now,” Dombrowski said recently, “we’re happy where we are with our bullpen.”

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Maybe he’s playing coy and has one more move up the sleeve of his natty blazer before spring training next month. Probably not, though. The bullpen appears short by one high-leverage reliever, and that’s probably how the Phillies will open the season.

For one thing, they are facing a 110% tariff on every dollar they spend because their projected $306.2 million payroll exceeds the highest luxury-tax threshold ($301 million). If the Phillies were to sign, say, Yates to a one-year, $12 million contract, he would actually cost them $25.2 million.

But even so, the approach to recasting the late innings amid the departures of Hoffman and Estévez is less about simple arithmetic than holding true to Dombrowski’s calculation in dealing with the most volatile position on the roster, notably one-year guarantees for veteran relievers, minor-league fliers, and a predilection for renting at the trade deadline over buying in free agency.

Consider this: Since they hired Dombrowski to be president of baseball operations four winters ago, the Phillies have signed only one reliever to more than a two-year guarantee — and José Alvarado was a contract extension.

Otherwise, Archie Bradley, Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Craig Kimbrel, and Romano were one-year free-agent deals. Matt Strahm got two years, then a one-year add-on and a 2026 club option. Homegrown righty Seranthony Domínguez’s extension was for two years with a 2025 club option. (He got traded to the Orioles last July.)

It’s a reflection of the year-to-year fluctuation in performance that is common among relievers. The Phillies liked free agents Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson last winter, but not for the four- and three-year terms that they received from the Giants and Angels, respectively. Hoffman, the Phillies’ best reliever over the last two seasons, just signed with the Blue Jays for three years and $33 million after reportedly failing physicals that nixed five- and three-year agreements with the Braves and Orioles.

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Regardless, the Phillies weren’t going that long.

“If Mariano Rivera was there, I’d be happy to go four years,” Dombrowski said last month. “There’s just a lot of inconsistencies in relievers, in general. It’s more of a philosophical type of thing. But it’s not a steadfast rule, by any means. It just depends upon who the guys out there are at the time.”

In Romano, the Phillies identified a two-time All-Star closer who actually preferred a one-year deal to rebuild his value at age 32 after an injury-marred season with the Blue Jays. He had surgery last July to relieve an impingement in the back of his right elbow but was throwing full-bore in bullpen sessions by early December.

Dombrowski said the Phillies were surprised that the Blue Jays didn’t tender a contract to Romano, who went from being arbitration-eligible to a free agent. The Phillies' doctors and athletic trainers were satisfied with Romano’s medical reports, and he passed a physical.

If there was a genealogy of Phillies bullpens, Romano — with an $8.5 million salary — is descendant from Bradley (one year, $6 million), Knebel, and Kimbrel (one year, $10 million apiece) in the lineage of free-agent righty closers signed by Dombrowski since 2021.

At the opposite end of the bullpen tree, the Phillies have had varying levels of success in adding relievers on minor-league contracts and getting major-league value, from Andrew Bellatti in 2022 to Hoffman in 2023 and José Ruiz last season. Maybe Nabil Crismatt or Nick Vespi is next in that succession. Or maybe it’s optionable depth on the 40-man roster, such as Max Lazar.

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Hoffman, in particular, pitched so well that the Phillies didn’t turn to Plan C last winter after not getting Hicks or Stephenson to replace Kimbrel. Then, as now, it seemed they were lacking one veteran reliever. But the Phillies enhanced Hoffman’s role, and he morphed into an All-Star.

The Phillies are betting on a similar breakout from Orion Kerkering. There were times last season when they treated the 23-year-old righty with kid gloves. But Kerkering, with a vicious, sweeping slider and high-octane heater, put up a 2.29 ERA and 28.8% strikeout rate in 64 appearances as a rookie.

Those are closer-type results to go with elite stuff.

“I’m not sure a guy like Kerkering couldn’t do it if we asked him to do that, but we have just chosen to not do that,” Dombrowski said of anointing a closer, a designation that manager Rob Thomson doesn’t tend to affix to one pitcher. “We think Kerkering is ready to take another continued step forward.”

A revolving bullpen door has yielded decent results. Since 2022, the Phillies’ 3.92 regular-season bullpen ERA ranks 13th in the majors. It surely helps that the starters, especially Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, usually work deep into games, reducing the wear and tear on the relievers. Only the Mariners and Astros asked their bullpens to pitch less than the Phillies over the last three years.

Early last season, the Phillies leaned on Hoffman, Strahm, Alvarado, and sometimes Kerkering and Domínguez in high-stress situations. When they dealt Domínguez for outfielder Austin Hays at the trade deadline, they imported Estévez from the Angels.

Maybe Ruiz or lefty Tanner Banks can be the fifth leverage option this year. Or maybe Joe Ross emerges. The Phillies signed the 31-year-old righty (one year, $4 million) as a swingman. But after making the rotation even stronger by trading for Jesús Luzardo — and with Andrew Painter poised to make his debut in “July-ish,” as Dombrowski outlined — they could consign Ross mostly to the bullpen. He had a 1.67 ERA in 15 relief appearances for the Brewers last season.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter is healthy and pitching again. Here’s how the Phillies are planning for his return in 2025.

And if the Phillies are still short in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings, Dombrowski will surely do what he has done at three of the last four trade deadlines: rent a reliever.

The Phillies picked up Ian Kennedy from the Rangers in 2021, David Robertson from the Cubs in 2022, and Estévez last year. And because they were all acquired a few months before being eligible for free agency, none did much to run up the Phillies' luxury-tax bill.

It might be easier for the Astros to move Pressly at the trade deadline, when he will be owed less than half of his $14 million salary. Contenders will be watching the Cardinals, who could move free-agent-to-be Ryan Helsley ($8.2 million). Rays righty Pete Fairbanks ($3.67 million, $7 million club option next year) might be available. If the payroll-trimming Padres slip, Robert Suarez could be on the move, especially because of an opt-out that could enable him to test free agency next winter.

One thing is clear: As sure as there will be a trade deadline, late-inning relievers will be available.

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So, even though the Phillies’ bullpen numbers don’t seem to add up now, there’s time to make the math work at the most unpredictable position.

“We’ll probably run our bullpen like we have the last couple years,” Thomson said last month. “We’ve had a lot of success with it. I think everybody’s pretty happy with that.”

It appears the Phillies have taken the same approach to building the bullpen, too.