Phillies-Cardinals questions: Who would start Game 1 against the Braves? Does 2011 matter?

Eleven years doesn’t feel that long when you’re in it. Time is continuous, after all. You don’t even notice it until something comes along to remind you how much of it has passed. Remember when you were a kid and adults would marvel at how much you’d grown since the last time they’d seen you? They were mostly marveling at the passage of time. You were a mile marker.

So it is with the Phillies. I laughed a little bit when I read some of their responses to the inevitable questions about the irony/coincidence/opportunity of playing the favored Cardinals at their home ballpark in the wild-card round. Nothing tells you more about the self-centered nature of time than listening to Andrew Bellatti talk about his emotional attachment to the days of Scott Eyre.

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“In 2011, I would have been in Hudson Valley, I think, with the Rays,” the Phillies reliever said.

That’s better than Bryson Stott, who would have been a freshman in high school.

Yet for those of us who watched this team in 2011, the story line isn’t just a narrative construction: It’s reality. One of the more vivid memories of my professional life is sitting in the press box at Citizens Bank Park looking out over my laptop screen and down at the grass on the first base line as Ryan Howard buried his head in the turf. The previous few seconds had happened fast enough to stun a building into silence, but slow enough that everybody could contemplate their implications as they unfolded: Howard rolls over a pitch, then winces, then tries to run, then stumbles, then falls, then pushes himself back up, then limps a few more steps before collapsing in the grass beside the foul line. This wasn’t just the end of a game or the end of a season. It was the end of an era.

If an organization is a family, the players are the children. They don’t really know any better, nor should they. Beyond the roster, though, are a lot of people in the Phillies organization who can’t help but view this year’s playoff berth on the same continuum. There are people who remember telling their 4-year-old children that more postseasons would come, that they’d be back again soon. Those kids are now 15.

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So, yeah, time is a funny thing. To those of us who view this year’s roster as another iteration of that first rebuilding roster, another step in a process, it is impossible to ignore the opportunity the Phillies have to return the favor to Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols. When you really break it down, though, the current crop of players has it right. Nobody cares about our memories. Besides, Wainwright was hurt that year. Pujols and Molina were in their prime. This year’s Cardinals aren’t the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. This is a three-game series that has never been played before. The circumstances are entirely different.

For the Phillies, the story lines that matter are the ones on the field.

I know, I know. ... one series at a time.

Cue the Jim Mora voice.

Braves? Braves? We’re talking about the Braves?

Thing is, the Phillies can’t take it one series at a time. Neither can any of the other wild-card teams. For instance, the Cardinals have yet to announce their Game 1 starter because they have three or four guys who all warrant consideration. And if they are considering all variables, then they will absolutely be factoring in the potential that whoever does not start Games 1 or 2 of the wild-card round will be available to start Game 1 of the NLDS. I’m not saying it will or should impact any decision-making. But MLB has given them no choice but to ask the question.

The commissioner’s office did a nifty little thing in setting up its new-fangled expanded playoffs. I like it, because it rewards deeper teams. With only one day off between Game 3 (if necessary) of the wild-card series and Game 1 of the best-of-five divisional series, the format forces teams to treat the first two rounds as a best-of-eight series when they need to win five games. This is an ends-based business, and this is the end result: In order to make the NLCS, the Phillies must win five out of eight games in 10 days.

Look at the table below and you’ll see what I mean. The format gives serious incentives to clinching as soon as possible. Clinch a bye, and your No. 1 starter gets to start Games 1 and 5 of the NLDS. Clinch the wild-card round in two games, and you won’t face the prospect of having your No. 4 starter on the mound for two games in the NLDS: winner-take-all Game 5 in the divisional round.

You can see how narrow the window is for a team like the Phillies. There is a realistic path to the NLCS. But it’s a path. As in, one. Singular. They need Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and the back of the bullpen to dominate Games 1 and 2. Win those two games, and they can start Ranger Suárez in Game 1 against the Braves, followed by Wheeler in Game 2 and Nola in Game 3. They wouldn’t need to worry about a fourth starter until Game 4 of the NLDS. The other scenario is much darker.

Let’s say the Phillies and Cardinals split the first two games and then the Phillies win Game 3 with Suárez on the mound. After traveling to Atlanta on Monday, they would enter Game 1 of the NLDS with Wheeler on three days rest, Nola on two days, and Suarez on one. That would leave them needing to pick between Noah Syndergaard or Kyle Gibson as their starter.

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Regardless of what happens in the wild-card series, Wheeler and Nola will only be able to pitch once in the NLDS on normal rest. Whatever happens, the Game 1 starter would be Suárez, Syndergaard, or Gibson. Same for Game 5.

Obviously, this has a trickle-down effect on the bullpen. In his last five starts, Syndergaard has averaged 16.6 outs, or roughly 5⅔ innings. He’s left the mound with opponents having scored an average of 3.2 runs. In normal baseball terms, that’s a 4.55 ERA.

That’s not ideal, but it’s better than Gibson has fared as of late. In his last six starters, the veteran right-hander has averaged just 14.3 outs while allowing 5.2 runs. His totals: 28⅔ innings, 31 runs, seven home runs. He’s allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts, at least five in four of six, and at least seven in three of six, including two of the last three.

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Syndergaard seems like the obvious choice, but a lot also depends on what happens during these first three games. Is Syndergaard an option out of the bullpen? He has made only three relief appearances in his career, but one of them came five days ago when he pitched two scoreless innings with two strikeouts while backing up Wheeler. And another one came in Game 5 of the 2015 NLDS, when he struck out two of the four batters he faced while pitching a scoreless seventh inning in the Mets’ win over the Dodgers. That said, he was 22 years old and a different pitcher at the time. His third appearance was in 2016, when he pitched a scoreless seventh inning against the White Sox after having been ejected from a start three days earlier.

Gibson has seven career relief appearances and has allowed 12 runs in 10⅔ innings, including three runs in the seventh inning of Game 1 of the 2019 ALDS against the Yankees.

Which leads us to our next question:

(Let alone three in three or five in six or eight in 10.) It’s going to be fascinating to see how Thomson handles the back of this bullpen. Specifically, how he handles Jose Alvarado. The lefty has gone from the least predictable arm on the Phillies staff to the most reliable late-innings reliever in the National League. He has allowed exactly one run in his last 21 innings dating back to Aug. 1. He has struck out 35 of the 73 batters he has faced during that stretch while walking only four. He has allowed 12 baserunners and no home runs.

Compare that to the rest of the ‘pen.

Bellatti had a nice little run in late August and early September when he went 5-for-5 in save and hold opportunities while striking out 13 and allowing one run in eight innings. But opponents are have an OPS of .838 against him in high-leverage situations on the season, including the 11th inning against the Braves on Sept. 25 when he allowed a couple of runs.

It would be a hell of a story, that’s for sure. The Phillies have been easing him into relief duty since he came off the injured list in mid-September. The results have been encouraging: two runs, nine strikeouts, no walks or home runs in 7⅔ innings. He is 3-for-3 in save and hold situations, including a scoreless ninth inning against the Astros in the clincher. He has pitched on back-to-back days once and on one day’s rest twice.

Is there a world in which Alvarado and Eflin are Thomson’s top two choices to close out a game? A lot depends on the internal reports on Robertson and Dominguez, as well as Hand’s availability.

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Think about the situations that Thomson could face. If the Cardinals have lefties Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar at the top of the lineup, and the Phillies need a reliever to start the seventh in a tight game, is there a chance Thomson calls on Bailey Falter for a couple of outs, knowing he needs Alvarado in the eighth or ninth? Lefties hit .193 against Michael Plassmeyer in the minors this season. But he has faced exactly two of them on the big-league level.