Projecting the Phillies’ playoff roster: Who’s in, who’s out in series vs. Mets or Cardinals

HOUSTON — As the Phillies get closer to clinching a playoff spot, their traveling contingent multiplied. Two weeks ago, Dave Dombrowski was the only club executive in Atlanta for a three-game series. Over the weekend, much of the baseball operations department joined him in Washington.

Hey, everybody loves a party.

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But there are actual reasons, beyond getting showered with champagne and beer, for the front office to come together now. Entering Monday, the Phillies were on the brink of locking up the last National League wild card — the magic number was down to one entering their night game in Houston — so it’s time to hold meetings and begin thinking seriously about putting together a postseason roster, among other things.

A few considerations:

Barring injuries this week in Houston, 19 spots appear to be taken based on Thomson’s lineups and bullpen usage: Games 1, 2, and 3 starters Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suárez; high-leverage relievers Seranthony Domínguez, lefty José Alvarado, David Robertson, and Zach Eflin; lineup fixtures J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos, and Bryce Harper; backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, fourth outfielder Matt Vierling, and probably versatile Nick Maton.

That leaves seven openings, which will be filled based on matchups and other considerations. Let’s look at some factors that will go into those decisions:

St. Louis’ lineup is built around MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. But as fearsome as they are, both are right-handed hitters. The same goes for Albert Pujols.

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals are vulnerable to right-handed pitching, posting a .728 on-base plus slugging percentage through Sunday compared to an .812 mark against lefties.

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That may bode well for Noah Syndergaard’s chances of making the roster as a long reliever over left-hander Bailey Falter. It also figures to cement bullpen seats for Connor Brogdon, Andrew Bellatti, and Nick Nelson, all of whom likely would be on the roster no matter the opponent.

(Eflin may loom large against the Cardinals. Goldschmidt is 2-for-12 with four strikeouts against him; Arenado is 4-for-17; neither has a home run.)

The Cardinals lack a clear-cut No. 1 starter but possess a deep rotation that includes a mixture of right-handers (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, and Adam Wainwright) and lefties (trade-deadline additions Jordan Montgomery and José Quintana). The bullpen features two lefties (Steven Matz and Génesis Cabrera), maybe more depending on how Montgomery and Quintana are used.

As a staff, the Cardinals are tougher on left-handed hitters, which amplifies Vierling’s role as a right-handed bat. If utilityman Edmundo Sosa (strained right hamstring) is ready, he could be an option to come off the bench against his former team. If not, the Phillies may be compelled to carry Dalton Guthrie, whose speed and versatility are assets rather than lefty pinch-hitter Darick Hall.

Bring on the left-handed pitching.

The Mets have a balanced lineup, with Pete Alonso hitting from the right side, Brandon Nimmo and Phillies slayer Jeff McNeil from the left, and switch-hitting Francisco Lindor from both. But they have struggled against lefties (.718 OPS through Sunday) compared to righties (.749), and it doesn’t help them that Starling Marte (.887 vs. left-handers) remains out with a broken right middle finger.

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That probably vaults Falter ahead of Syndergaard. It also may represent Kyle Gibson’s best (only?) chance to be included as an emergency long man. While Syndergaard has dodged his old team all season, Gibson had a 2.45 ERA in three starts against the Mets, perhaps a counterweight to his 9.73 ERA over his last six starts.

Facing the Mets would make this an important week for Brad Hand. The lefty is expected to test his sore elbow with a bullpen session and perhaps face hitters in a controlled setting. Hand and Falter would join Alvarado to give the Phillies three lefty relievers to throw at the Mets.

The Mets have an all-right-handed rotation, but that hardly matters when two of the starters are Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. If they’re on the mound in the eighth inning, or Edwin Díaz in the ninth, it probably won’t matter if the Phillies have an extra left-handed hitter on the bench.

Wait, do they really need 13 pitchers for a three-game series?

“The number of pitchers you take is dependent on the number of extra starters that you take,” Thomson said. “There’s no runner at second base anymore, so you’ve got to be mindful of that.”

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A 13-pitcher staff would enable the Phillies to carry at least two extra starters, in addition to Brogdon, Bellatti, Nelson, and if healthy, Hand. And additional starters may be helpful in case Wheeler gives them less than six innings in what will be his fourth start after missing a month with elbow inflammation.

In that case, they’d have a four-player bench, with the last spot coming down to Guthrie, Hall, or Sosa, if he’s ready.