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Phillies’ playoff-clinching scenarios going into Tuesday’s game

Any of four potential outcomes tonight will wrap up the top wild-card spot in the National League for the Phillies.

Aaron Nola pitching against the Miami Marlins on Sept. 9. Nola will take the mound for the Phillies tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park.
Aaron Nola pitching against the Miami Marlins on Sept. 9. Nola will take the mound for the Phillies tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park.Read moreElizabeth Robertson / Staff Photographer

It’s almost party time at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies can clinch a postseason berth — and the top wild card in the National League, plus the best-of-three home series that comes along with it — Tuesday night with any of four potential outcomes:

  1. A victory at home over the Pirates.

  2. A loss by the Marlins (at the Mets), or the Cubs (at the Braves), or the Diamondbacks (at the White Sox).

» READ MORE: Why Bryce Harper feels fortunate to be hitting for power again for the Phillies

If the Phillies lose Tuesday night, they need both the Cubs and D’backs to also lose to clinch the top wild card. Only one needs to lose (if the Phillies lose) for the Phils to clinch a playoff spot.

Entering play Tuesday, the Phillies are 87-69 and lead the Marlins (81-75) by five games for a wild-card spot with six games remaining. The Diamondbacks and Cubs are 82-74, but the Phillies hold the tiebreaker over both by virtue of winning the season series.

Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.57 ERA) will start Tuesday night. Pirates righty Mitch Keller (13-9, 4.25) is expected to start for the Pirates. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m.

The Phillies will host the Pirates on Wednesday and Thursday, then travel to New York for a three-game series against the Mets to conclude the regular season.

After a day off Monday, the Phillies would host Game 1 of the best-of-three wild-card round next Tuesday (Oct. 3) against the fifth-seeded team in the NL, likely the Diamondbacks, Cubs, or Marlins.