Orion Kerkering will have a big role in the Phillies’ bullpen. Could he wind up being the closer?

It’s always useful to listen to what team officials say about assembling a roster. But it’s often more informative to watch what they do, with past actions tending to portend or even influence present-day decisions.

Take, for instance, Dave Dombrowski’s work on the Phillies bullpen.

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And so it went, the reliever carousel spinning ‘round and ‘round and ‘round in Dombrowski’s first three winters at the helm of the Phillies’ baseball operations, with a notable trend: veterans taking over for veterans, mostly on one-year commitments save for Alvarado and Soto, who came from the Rays and Tigers, respectively, with multiple seasons of team control.

It’s one thing, then, three weeks before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, for the Phillies to claim that they are “pretty happy with where we’re at” in the bullpen, in manager Rob Thomson’s words, even though they haven’t filled the spot that opened last month when Kimbrel signed with the Orioles.

But Dombrowski’s history suggests they’re still fishing for help. There’s been a run on relievers lately. Since star closer Josh Hader made a five-year, $95 million deal with the Astros, Robert Stephenson got three years from the Angels, while Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, John Brebbia, and Robertson grabbed one-year offers from the Pirates, Angels, White Sox, and Rangers. Neris and Adam Ottavino came off the board Saturday with one-year agreements with the Cubs and Mets.

The Phillies were in touch with righty Phil Maton, according to multiple sources, but nothing has materialized. They’ve expressed interest in Jakob Junis, a source said, though the 31-year-old righty would fit more as a multi-inning swingman than a late-game option. It’s likely the Phillies have engaged most other free agents, including Ryne Stanekand Ryan Brasier.

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Because although it’s obscured by meltdowns in Games 3 and 4 of the National League Championship Series in Arizona, Kimbrel led the Phillies in appearances (71) and saves (23). He had a 3.26 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 69 mostly high-leverage innings. He pitched in the All-Star Game and was 32% better than league average based on ERA+.

And if the Phillies don’t make a move to fill the void, it will mean only one thing.

They think Orion Kerkering can do it.

Kerkering’s story has been well-covered, so here’s the abridged version: A 2022 fifth-round draft pick from the University of South Florida with a hard, sweeping, late-breaking slider, he blazed through the minors like a comet, starting out last season at low-A Clearwater and reaching four levels in six months before making his major-league debut on Sept. 24 and appearing in seven of the Phillies’ 13 postseason games.

Amazing? Yes. Unprecedented? Pretty much.

“It was super dope,” Kerkering said last week.

Sure. That, too.

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But the most recent image of the 22-year-old righty was his trudge to the dugout after giving up a run against the Diamondbacks in Game 6 of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park. It came two nights after he walked two batters in the tide-turning seventh inning of Game 4, which followed his allowing the tying run late in Game 3.

The Phillies lost all three games, and of course, the series.

When it was over, Kerkering went home to Florida. He lay low for one weekend, “and then I was like, I need to go do something.” So, he got in the gym. He fiddled with a developing sinker. He indulged friends’ questions about the food in a major-league clubhouse.

And he reviewed those games in Arizona, where he pitched on back-to-back days for the first time and couldn’t throw even his slider for a strike.

“I’ve thought about it a lot, just kind of going back and looking at old mistakes,” Kerkering said. “I even go back and look at all my minor-league mistakes. In the moment, like after the game, you go look and your emotions are still there. But it’s always one pitch or a couple pitches that weren’t there. That’s all it was.”

Maybe so, but postseason adversity is tougher to shake. The stakes are higher, the spotlight is brighter, and the stigma of poor performance tends to hit harder.

The Phillies don’t believe that will be the case with Kerkering. They called him up with fewer than 10 games left in the regular season — after only one appearance in triple A — because they were convinced he’s wired to roll with success and struggle.

“I never saw him — well, I saw tape of him — before we brought him up,” Thomson said. “But the thing was to get him into this atmosphere before the playoffs just to see how he responds to it. I thought he responded tremendously. There were a couple bumps there late in the Arizona series. When he did fail, he bounced right back. It didn’t seem to mentally or emotionally affect him. That’s a good sign.”

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After the postseason, Thomson said he didn’t regret betting so big on a pitcher who didn’t attend big-league spring training or make his major-league debut until the 156th game of the season. He doesn’t regret it now, either.

If anything, the Phillies are poised to double down by counting on Kerkering as part of a bullpen that hasn’t changed. Well, except for a full season of Kerkering, presumably in Kimbrel’s role as the righty most likely to stare down Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Pete Alonso, and Mookie Betts in a cuticle-chomping eighth or ninth inning.

“Yeah, I’d like to see him win a job, but he’s way up on my list as far as his talent level and where he stands in that bullpen,” Thomson said. “I like the stuff, I like the makeup. I think he’s going to be a big part of this thing moving forward — and including this year.”

Contrast those comments with the Phillies’ approach to 23-year-old center fielder Johan Rojas.

When Rojas got called up from double A in July, it was supposed to be only temporary. But his elite defense proved to be difference-making. And while he remained a work in progress at the plate, he didn’t look overmatched.

Until he went 4-for-43 with 15 strikeouts and one walk in the playoffs.

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All winter, team officials have said Rojas must win back his job in spring training. Maybe they’re merely challenging a young, developing player because they haven’t acquired a veteran center fielder to compete with him.

“What we’re really looking at is what’s best for Johan,” Thomson said again last week. “Is it best for him to be here, and if he’s not swinging the bat well, just struggle? And how’s that going to affect him emotionally? Or is it better for him to go down and get 300 at-bats at triple A and then come back up? It all depends on how it looks during spring training.”

The Phillies don’t hedge on Kerkering as part of the eight-man bullpen.

Alvarado, Soto, fellow lefty Matt Strahm, and righties Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Domínguez are locks. One of the other three spots could go to Connor Brogdon or Andrew Bellatti, neither of whom can be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. Dylan Covey represents precious starting rotation depth but is also out of options. Like most of last season, he could stay on the roster as a long reliever (read: starter insurance).

Regardless, there’s a seat saved for Kerkering. The kid is in, so much so that Dombrowski noted with unusual specificity that he turned down a trade offer for Kerkering at the winter meetings in December.

“I could have made a trade that, somebody would’ve said, ‘Jeez, that’s a good trade.’ I could have traded Kerkering for somebody like that today,” Dombrowski said. “I said, ‘I don’t really want to do that.’”

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Thomson prefers to deploy late-inning relievers based on matchups rather than appointing a closer. But Kerkering’s combination of electric stuff and calm demeanor — Aaron Nola nailed it by describing him as “level-headed” — gives the Phillies confidence that he could close out games.

Meanwhile, Kerkering’s approach to his first big-league camp will be classic Kerkering. Simple, direct, low key.

“Not overthinking every single day,” he said. “I’m there for a reason.”

“The stuff’s there and the swing-and-miss is there,” Thomson said. “If he can handle this atmosphere, which I think he’s proven, we got somebody that could be special.”