Will Craig Kimbrel reemerge as a closer for the Phillies? His ‘twin’, Billy Wagner, believes he can.

If Kimbrel is still elite, it’s difficult to imagine the Phillies not using him as the closer. If not, finding the best role for him could prove challenging.

Billy Wagner (left) and Craig Kimbrel (right)Read moreAP / AP

by Scott Lauber

Published Jan. 6, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

After signing with the Atlanta Braves as a free agent 13 years ago, Billy Wagner heard from pitching coach Roger McDowell, who mentioned a young, power-armed reliever with whom team officials were enamored.

“You’re going to think he’s your twin,” McDowell said.

A few weeks later, Wagner met Craig Kimbrel and saw what the Braves saw. Wagner is 5-foot-10; Kimbrel barely scrapes 6 feet. Wagner intimidated hitters with an overpowering heater that sizzled at 100 mph; Kimbrel had the same grade of octane. Save for their opposite throwing hands, the similarities were so undeniable that then-Braves general manager Frank Wren routinely called Kimbrel “a right-handed Billy Wagner.”

But one thing set Kimbrel apart, not only from Wagner but from almost all pitchers. While most elite relievers were once starters, Kimbrel was a closer from his very first day in rookie ball. He finished 99 of his 126 games in the minors and 80% of his 709 major-league appearances since his 2010 debut. Wherever he has played, from Danville, Va., to Dodger Stadium, from age 21 to 34, his role has rarely changed.

So, a few eyebrows rose when the Phillies agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with Kimbrel. Because Rob Thomson didn’t appoint a closer after becoming the manager on June 3. Instead, he took a progressive approach, deploying relievers based on matchups with hitters rather than specific innings. And it worked. The Phillies went 65-46 under Thomson, with 10 pitchers picking up at least one save.

Thomson and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski intend to stick with that strategy. If Seranthony Domínguez closes a game today, José Alvarado or Kimbrel — or lefty Gregory Soto, a two-time All-Star closer acquired Saturday in a five-player trade with the Detroit Tigers — might be in line to do it tomorrow. It will all depend on the situation.

And so, it’s fair to wonder: How will Bullpen By Matchups mesh with the Natural Born Closer?

“If Craig goes out there and throws up zeroes and goes back to being dominant and healthy, I don’t think it would be the case [that he wouldn’t close],” Wagner, a seven-time All-Star closer, including with the Phillies in 2005, said by phone from his home in Virginia. “You’ve got a horse in the stable, you don’t use him for oddities. You use him to go out there and close out wins.”

For most of his career, Kimbrel has been a thoroughbred. He has 394 saves, more than any active pitcher and seventh all-time behind Mariano Rivera (652), Trevor Hoffman (601), Lee Smith (478), Francisco Rodríguez (437), John Franco (424), and Wagner (422). His 2.31 career ERA is identical to Wagner’s — and Wagner might wind up in the Hall of Fame.

The best closer in baseball since 2011? It’s Kimbrel, full stop.

But other than half a season with the Chicago Cubs, Kimbrel hasn’t dominated since 2018. Even then, the Dombrowski-built Boston Red Sox used starter Chris Sale, not Kimbrel, to get the last out of the World Series. Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers took Kimbrel out of the closer role in September and omitted him from the playoff roster instead of using him in non-save situations.

Kimbrel’s average fastball velocity has dipped from a peak of 98.3 mph in 2017 to 97.1 in 2018, 96.2 in 2019, 96.9 in 2020, 96.5 in 2021, and 95.8 last year, according to Statcast. But his curveball remains a weapon, limiting hitters to .143, .111, and .244 slugging percentages in the last three seasons. The Phillies might encourage him to throw more breaking pitches, or develop variations of it, as a way of unlocking the second act of his career.

“You’re not always going to have the velocity that you once had,” said Wagner, who played with Kimbrel in 2010. “But nowadays, having a solid offspeed pitch like Craig has is the bigger thing. I think he has evolved, like all of us do as we get older. You have to be a little bit smarter, you have to execute a little bit better. When you do, you’re valued. When you don’t, you look old and fat.”

Kimbrel admitted he signed with the Phillies, even though they told him they don’t intend to designate one closer, because he believes the pitching braintrust of Caleb Cotham and Brian Kaplan can aid his evolution. But Kimbrel and Wagner also acknowledged that the closer role has changed in recent years.

With most starters no longer expected to get through a lineup three times, it’s imperative to have relievers with late-inning stuff to pick up the middle-inning slack. And teams that are able to build deep, strong bullpens also need not lean on only one pitcher to safeguard a lead in the ninth inning. Ten relievers posted at least 30 saves last season, down from 16 in 2016 and 21 in 2015.

“Now you have a closer in the sixth, the seventh, the eighth, and the ninth, and you can switch them in and out.” Wagner said. “The day has probably just about run its course to where you’re going to be valued for what they call a save or a hold.”

But as closers become more interchangeable, Kimbrel seemingly has not. When the Chicago White Sox acquired him in a deadline trade in 2021, they used him in a setup role. He allowed 18 hits and 10 walks in 23 innings and posted a 5.09 ERA. The Dodgers traded for him last year expressly to close, his career numbers indicating that he thrives on the familiarity of that job.

Ninth inning: 2.17 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .507 opponents’ OPS in 595 games.
Eighth inning: 3.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .603 opponents’ OPS in 71 games.

“There’s many times where a game hinges on the sixth or seventh inning, not the ninth,” Wagner said. “But with that being said, the hardest three outs are the last three outs. It takes a mighty different person to pitch in the ninth inning because you don’t have no fallbacks in the ninth. There’s nobody else back there.”

Maybe Kimbrel can adapt. Maybe he can bottle the high of pitching without a safety net in the ninth inning and bring it into the seventh or eighth inning, where one mistake doesn’t automatically result in defeat.

The Phillies gauged Kimbrel’s flexibility when Cotham and Kaplan met with him last month and in a separate conversation with Thomson.

“I’m very on board with that,” Kimbrel said this week. “This game has changed and will continue to change. If I want to continue to be a part of it, that has to be part of the conversation, as well.”

But Wagner is willing to bet that, as long as Kimbrel pitches well, Thomson might eventually find that the bullpen is strongest with Kimbrel tethered to the ninth. Maybe it would free up the manager to use Domínguez or Alvarado more aggressively earlier in a game if he knows that the active saves leader is there to turn out the lights.

“Robby was around Mariano,” Wagner said, referring to Thomson’s years as a coach with the New York Yankees at the peak of Rivera’s greatness. “He knows there’s something to be said when you can sit there and say, ‘I’ve got an ace in the hole here.’ There’s no manager who doesn’t like to have that. There’s a comfort to that. I don’t know how many times you’re going to throw Craig out in the sixth or the seventh to get two outs or whatever so that you can get to the eighth and ninth.

“I know Robby will have a great influence on Craig, and Craig and him will get along. I think it’ll sort itself out just by how Craig does his job. I think he understands what people are expecting of him. He’s a premier closer. Any time you’re a premier closer, you’re expected to get every save.”

If Kimbrel is still elite, it’s difficult to imagine Thomson using the Natural Born Closer any other way. If not, finding the most effective role for him could prove challenging.