Will the Phillies jump into the star-studded shortstop market?
If the Phillies turn Jean Segura loose, they could shift Bryson Stott to second and make a play for Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and others.
HOUSTON — Once the final out of the 118th World Series is recorded, be it Saturday or Sunday, any player who is eligible for free agency will become a free agent. The general managers’ meetings open Tuesday in Las Vegas. Contract options for 2023 must be picked up or declined before next weekend.
Hey, life moves pretty fast when you play baseball into November.
The Phillies won’t get a deferral of their offseason business just because they were among the last two teams left playing. The process of defending the National League pennant will begin as soon as they leave the field, whether or not they are victorious.
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And with one of their very first decisions, they will state clearly whether they intend to cannonball into another star-studded shortstop market.
Because if the Phillies exercise their $17 million option for second baseman Jean Segura, it means they will commit to Bryson Stott at shortstop, where he started 51 of the final 60 regular-season games and 13 of 19 postseason games. But if they turn Segura loose, with the parting gift of his $1 million buyout, they could shift Stott to second base and make an aggressive play for free-agent shortstops Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Or Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts, who are expected to opt out of their contracts and enter the market.
Imagine Turner, one of Bryce Harper’s favorite players, atop the Phillies’ order, or batting second between Kyle Schwarber and Harper. Think of Swanson playing his Gold Glove defense for the Phillies instead of against them with the rival Atlanta Braves. Bogaerts negotiated his last contract with the Red Sox when Dave Dombrowski was running Boston’s baseball operations. Could they reunite now?
All of those options would be in play if the Phillies move on from Segura. Otherwise, if they bring back Segura, the primary offseason focus may shift to another area, such as another high-end starting pitcher to add to Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
There’s at least an argument for the latter.
Segura and Stott were solid up the middle down the stretch after the Phillies released Didi Gregorius. Segura makes up for a lack of power with his bat-to-ball skills. He’s the toughest hitter in the lineup to strike out, whiffing at a 15% rate that was well below league average (22.7%). He had two of the biggest hits in the postseason, punching a low-and-away pitch through the right side to fuel the ninth-inning comeback in Game 1 of the wild-card series in St. Louis and hitting the same pitch for a two-run single in Game 3 of the NL Championship Series against the Padres.
And Segura, who will turn 33 in March, has forged a close relationship with Stott, acting almost like an older brother to the 25-year-old rookie.
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But at $17 million, Segura would be the third-highest-paid second baseman in baseball behind Houston’s Jose Altuve ($29 million) and Texas’ Marcus Semien ($26 million). FanGraphs pegged Segura’s value at $13.8 million this year, although he did miss two months with a broken finger.
If owner John Middleton agrees to maintain a payroll that exceeds the luxury-tax threshold, the Phillies could take the $16 million that they would recoup by declining Segura’s option and the $14 million that Gregorius counted against the competitive-balance tax and allocate it toward one of the big-name shortstops, all of whom are likely to net annual salaries in the $25 million to $30 million range.
Stott is a natural shortstop, although even Larry Bowa doubted he would stay at the position after the Phillies drafted him 14th overall in 2019. But Stott worked with infield coach Bobby Dickerson to improve his anticipation and increase his range. After taking over for Gregorius on Aug. 2, Stott ranked one out above average, according to Statcast.
“[Former general manager] Matt Klentak asked me if he can play short when I saw him in [single-A] Lakewood about four or five games in a row, and I said, ‘No way,’ ” Bowa said. “I didn’t see good first steps. I didn’t see good range. I didn’t see a strong arm in the hole.
“But he’s one of these guys that, if you go watch him three games if you’re a scout, you’re going to say, ‘Yeah, he’s OK.’ But if you watch him for two, three weeks or a month, you’re going to say, ‘This kid grows on you, man. He knows how to play.’ I did change. I told him, ‘I changed my mind on you.’ ”
Moving Stott to second base wouldn’t represent another shift in the organization’s thinking. If anything, it would capitalize on Stott’s versatility. At second base, he recorded three outs above average, according to Statcast, as many as Segura and better than his average ranking at shortstop.
“The more you do it, the more comfortable you get,” Stott said of playing second base. “When Segy was down and I was playing second the majority of the time, it got a lot better. Every pregame was obviously at second base. You kind of just get in that rhythm and that feel of it.”
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A long run to the World Series hasn’t prevented the front office from making plans for next year. The Phillies held a round of organizational meetings in Washington near the end of the regular season. Club officials have met often throughout the postseason.
Regardless of how it ends, the business of the offseason is nearly upon them. A decision on Segura looms.
And the shortstop market will await the Phillies’ arrival.