Phillies offseason outlook: The pitch to add to the rotation, a left fielder to watch, and more

Let’s start with a reminder: As another baseball offseason looms beyond the Clash of the Titans — er, the World Series — pay as much attention to teams’ actions as you do to their decision-makers’ words.

That said, here are two things the Phillies did within the last 12 months:

1. They threw the most money at free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto last December, major league sources said in spring training, even though they had already run back the starting rotation by re-signing Aaron Nola for $172 million. (Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers for $325 million, the largest guarantee ever for a pitcher.)

» READ MORE: Phillies offseason primer: Outfield upgrade (Juan Soto?), spending outlook, fixing the bullpen, and more

2. Before the trade deadline in July, they discussed a swap for White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet. But the 25-year-old’s workload coming off elbow surgery and his unusual demand for a contract extension in exchange for consenting to pitch in the postseason, along with Chicago’s interest in top-tier prospects, complicated a deal. Crochet stayed put.

And because words matter, too, here’s president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski from last week on why the Phillies finished 34-35 after a 61-32 start:

“When we went into the trading deadline, we were in a position where we looked at a lot of different things, and the fifth starting position was a spot where we felt pretty comfortable where we were. We had Tyler Phillips, who was pitching very well; we had Taijuan Walker coming back in about 10 days; we figured we had Spencer Turnbull coming back at the end of August and thought he’d be able to step into the starting rotation. Well, none of those things worked for us. When you look at the fifth spot, that was not a good spot at all for us the last two months of the season.”

Sensing a theme? In actions and words, the Phillies keep exploring ways to add to a starting rotation that, by all appearances, is well-set. And after deciding not to augment it at the trade deadline, Dombrowski had regrets.

It’s a safe bet, then, that starting pitching came up this week during the Phillies’ organizational meetings, where club officials discussed various players, debated potential moves, and sketched an offseason plan.

To be clear, the Phillies have more pressing needs. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, their highest-leverage righty relievers, will be free agents. A lineup of high-salaried hitters must become more varied in its approach, perhaps through changes in left field or center. And if J.T. Realmuto will get more rest, as manager Rob Thomson suggested, who will be the backup catcher?

» READ MORE: The Phillies have to get creative to improve. That includes their hitters’ approach. Is that realistic?

The Phillies have invested heavily in starting pitching, an area of strength and stability. Zack Wheeler, Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez will cost $72.2 million against the luxury tax next year; Ranger Suárez’s 2025 salary will be nearly $9 million, according to the arbitration projections at MLB Trade Rumors; Walker is owed $18 million in each of the next two years; and Andrew Painter is pitching again after Tommy John surgery.

Dombrowski said the Phillies will look to add fifth-starter competition for Walker and better depth beyond the top five. Eventually, Painter will occupy a spot. But because his innings will be capped in his first year back from surgery, he may not join the rotation until later in the season.

Regardless, the Phillies can comfortably sit out the top end of the free-agent pitching market, an enviable position, given the expected cost for Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and, most likely, Blake Snell.

Except that hitting is as difficult as it has been in more than half a century. As Dombrowski noted last week, the league-average batting average this season was .243, tied for the lowest mark since 1968, the infamous “Year of the Pitcher,” which prompted MLB to lower the mound.

One idea, then, would be for the Phillies to lean into their strength and make it even stronger.

Through the All-Star break, the Phillies led the majors with a 3.22 ERA from their starters. Although that mark soared to 4.74 in the second half, Wheeler, Nola, and Sánchez combined for a solid 3.32 ERA. Wheeler’s seven-inning, one-hit gem in Game 1 of the divisional series is the best start in the postseason so far, as measured by game score. The Phillies led baseball with 38 starts of at least seven innings and won 34 games in a row when that happened.

At a time when most teams are asking starters to do less, Phillies starters do more.

» READ MORE: As the Phillies stress continuity, outfield will be the most likely spot to bring change and lineup balance

So, why not circle back to the White Sox about Crochet? He’s under control through salary arbitration for two more seasons. He also had a 3.58 ERA and 209 strikeouts in 146 innings. Dombrowski loves power arms. And Crochet presumably will drop his extension demand, which was designed as midseason insurance against another injury.

Veteran lefty Jordan Montgomery will be available after Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick called it a “horrible decision” to sign him in the first place. Montgomery, 31, has a $22.5 million player option for 2025 — or $13.5 million less than the Phillies must pay Walker over the next two years. He had a 6.23 ERA last season but a 3.48 mark from 2021 to 2023.

Betting on Montgomery to bounce back, or taking a one-year flier on Walker Buehler, would add to a rotation that lacks depth. The Phillies have kept their starters remarkably healthy over the last few seasons. Imagine if they’d had, say, the Dodgers’ injury problems, and their best internal options to fill in were Phillips and Kolby Allard.

» READ MORE: Which young or homegrown players will be part of the Phillies' long-term plan?

It wouldn’t be unlike Dombrowski to double down on pitching, either. He traded for David Price at the deadline in 2014, even though the Tigers had Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Aníbal Sánchez, and Drew Smyly. With the Red Sox, he added Chris Sale to a rotation that included Price, Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Drew Pomeranz.

Seven offseasons after the Sale blockbuster, Crochet looms as another available White Sox ace — and fits the description of a “difference maker,” a term that owner John Middleton hears Dombrowski use frequently.

Just something to keep in mind.

Two other thoughts as the Phillies held their meetings this week:

As the Phillies consider changes to the outfield and another dimension for a lineup that’s prone to swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, keep this name in mind: Jurickson Profar.

Profar, 31, batted .280 with 24 homers and an .839 OPS — all career highs — and was an All-Star this season for the Padres — and for the bargain price of a $1 million base salary. The left fielder will be a free agent and stands to receive a multiyear contract and a nice raise.

But here’s where switch-hitting Profar would appeal to the Phillies: He chased after 21.9% of pitches out of the zone and had a 15.1% strikeout rate, well below the Phillies’ averages of 30.3% and 22.2%, respectively.

» READ MORE: Does batting .300 matter anymore? Trea Turner thinks it does. Why is it becoming increasingly rare?

Profar is coming off the best season of his 11-year career, by far, making it difficult to gauge his value. He also told reporters that he wants to remain in San Diego, and not only because of the weather. He’s a .257 hitter with a .753 OPS in 517 games with the Padres compared with .234 and .702 in 602 games with the Rangers, A’s, and Rockies.

It’s doubtful that Profar will receive the $21 million qualifying offer from the Padres, which would improve his market. It’s also unclear whether they can fit him into the payroll while staying below the luxury-tax threshold, if that’s their intention.

On a two- or three-year deal, Profar might be the complementary piece to help round out the Phillies’ offense.

With Realmuto sidelined in the middle of the season after knee surgery, Garrett Stubbs made 18 starts behind the plate and went 11-for-59 (.186) with a .516 OPS. Rafael Marchán came up from triple A for the other 14 starts and went 15-for-51 (.294) with three homers and an .895 OPS.

And if Realmuto wasn’t ready to resume his iron-man workload upon his return, the Phillies might have had an internal conversation about the backup catcher spot.

It will be a talking point this winter.

» READ MORE: From spring training: How the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto is trying to defy the unforgiving aging curve at catcher

In separate news conferences last week, Dombrowski and Thomson said Realmuto, who will be 34 next season, could benefit from additional rest. Thomson plans to share those thoughts with Realmuto, who takes pride in starting 130 games per season and will be playing for a new contract after 2025.

Can he convince Realmuto to cut back to, say, 100 starts?

“I’m not sure yet,” Thomson said, smiling.

But the Phillies’ intentions are clear, which may put them in the market for a backup catcher upgrade. It won’t be easy. As Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recalled in spring training, free-agent catchers used to avoid St. Louis because they wanted more playing time than they would get as Yadier Molina’s backup. The same applies to the Phillies with Realmuto.

Internally, there’s an interesting wrinkle to the Stubbs-Marchán debate.

Stubbs, 31, can be optioned to the minors and doesn’t have enough major-league service time to refuse an assignment. Marchán, 25, would need to clear waivers to go to triple A. If they compete in spring training, Marchán might be the rare challenger with an inside track over the incumbent, even though Stubbs is popular in the clubhouse and central to the Phillies’ chemistry since 2022.

But Marchán also has had difficulty staying healthy throughout his minor-league career. The Phillies could stash Stubbs in triple A knowing that they might need him later on.