Phillies offseason: Key dates, trade talk, signings, analysis, and more

In the end, the 2022 Phillies didn’t inspire a ticker-tape parade down Broad Street. They didn’t send revelers climbing up the light poles or get “Dancing On My Own” to play on a loop at City Hall Plaza.

But for one month, they turned a football city back into a baseball town, and well, it was everything they imagined — and more.

“We heard about it,” Aaron Nola said. “They always said, ‘Get to the playoffs and you’ll see it.’ With us, it had been a long time, and we didn’t see it. And we saw it. And it was cool. It was awesome. It’s addicting being on that field, in that dugout, in front of those fans.”

Now comes the hard part: Keeping it going.

The offseason officially started Nov. 6, a day after Nick Castellanos fouled out and the Houston Astros clinched the World Series title. The Phillies’ needs were clear: a middle infielder, at least one starting pitcher, and a few bullpen arms.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ biggest offseason questions: Harper’s elbow, SS addition, and Painter in 2023?

“This is going to be the same team next year with a couple more pieces, I’d imagine,” Bryce Harper said. “[President of baseball operations] Dave Dombrowski’s our guy. [Owner] John Middleton understands we want to win, and he wants to win, too, right now. I’d imagine we’re going to be the same team but with some more pieces to make it that much better.”

At The Inquirer, we had thoughts on who should stay and who should go. You can do the same, with this interactive Stay Or Go feature:

Now that you’ve cast your votes, here’s a look at everything that has happened so far and what awaits, as the National League champions try to defend their title:

Aaron Nola will be back for an encore in 2023. Jean Segura and Zach Eflin? Not necessarily.

The Phillies informed Nola that they would pick up his $16 million option for 2023, an easy call considering his track record as one of the most durable starting pitchers in baseball. Since 2018, the 29-year-old right-hander has made more starts (143) and logged more innings (871⅔) than any pitcher in baseball.

Eflin, meanwhile, declined his half of a $15 million mutual option. After making $5.55 million this year, he will enter the free-agent market at age 28 and seek opportunities as a starting pitcher after coming out of the bullpen for the Phillies once he returned from the injured list in September.

The Phillies declined their $17 million option on Segura, who received a $1 million buyout and became a free agent. The Phillies have six other free agents, all pitchers: starters Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard, and relievers David Robertson, Brad Hand, Corey Knebel, and Chris Devenski.

Moving on from Segura assured the Phillies would have positional and financial flexibility to pursue one of the four elite shortstops available on the free-agent market: Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.

Before the Phillies made an autumn run to the World Series, they survived a summer without Harper. The players who most helped them overcome losing their best hitter reaped the rewards. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto were awarded the Silver Slugger as top hitters among National League outfielders and catchers, respectively.

Realmuto received the honor for the third time but first since 2019; Schwarber is a first-time Silver Slugger winner.

It was important to manager Rob Thomson to keep as much of his coaching staff intact as possible. After third-base coach Dusty Wathan agreed to a multiyear contract extension in October, the Phillies signed hitting coach Kevin Long to a two-year extension through the 2025 season.

Two weeks after making the pitching change that will be debated in pubs and hoagie shops for years, Rob Thomson reflected back on pulling Zack Wheeler after 70 pitches in the sixth inning of Game 6 of the World Series.

In breaking down the ultimate move gone wrong, Thomson also believes he learned something about himself, as Scott Lauber wrote.

“My brother asked me, he said, ‘So, what was it like in the World Series?’” Thomson said. “And I said, ‘Well, it really felt like the World Series before the game and after the game, but during the game, it was just the game.’ I learned that even though it’s a World Series game, I could relax and think clearly.”

If the Phillies ever held an organizational skills competition, 22-year-old center field prospect Johan Rojas would be a solid bet to win any contest related to sprinting or outfield defense.

So, when it came time to make room for him on the 40-man roster, it was an easy decision.

The Phillies met the deadline to protect eligible players from being exposed to next month’s Rule 5 draft by selecting Rojas’ contract. The club’s fifth-best prospect according to Baseball America’s most recent rankings, he batted .244/.309/.354 with seven home runs in 556 plate appearances overall at high A and double A.

But the Phillies elected not to protect other Rule 5-eligible players, including lefty reliever Erik Miller and right-hander Cristian Hernández. The Rule 5 draft is scheduled for Dec. 7 in San Diego.

Phillies officials believe the club’s October success is sustainable in large part because of pitching prospects Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, and Griff McGarry, who could contribute to the big-league club as soon as 2023.

All three are plenty motivated, but watching the Phillies on baseball’s biggest stage provided an extra boost. And at the perfect time — ahead of 2023 — when they could all get called up to the big-league club.

Bryce Harper decided to undergo surgery on the damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow that prevented him from throwing since the middle of April, ending months of speculation. The surgery would be performed on Nov. 23 by Los Angeles-based Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

The extent of the procedure — a full-scale ligament reconstruction, known colloquially as “Tommy John surgery,” or a repair of the existing ligament — wouldn’t be ascertained until Harper is on the operating table. Regardless, three things were clear:

» READ MORE: Phillies’ free-agent pitching options include few of the difference-makers they need

Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Phillies have “some flexibility” to sign another high-salaried free agent.

In other words, Trea Turner can expect a call.

“I think we have flexibility,” Dombrowski said. “We do lose a couple of guys that made significant dollars. In fact, more than one. We have some flexibility.”

Even if Harper wasn’t going to miss part of next season, the Phillies would need more from Nick Castellanos, who made a candid admission after the World Series about his first year with the Phillies.

“Personally,” he said, “this was one of the hardest baseball years that I’ve had.”

Also the worst. And as Scott Lauber wrote, the Phillies dove into the offseason trying to understand why Castellanos struggled so profoundly. Figuring out how to avoid a repeat in 2023 will rank among their highest priorities.

The Phillies met another deadline by predictably tendering 2023 contracts to Rhys Hoskins and four others who are eligible for salary arbitration: lefty starter Ranger Suárez, late-inning relievers José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez, and slick-fielding infielder Edmundo Sosa.

Additionally, the Phillies avoided arbitration with reliever Sam Coonrod by agreeing on a one-year contract that will be worth $775,000, according to a major league source.

Most of Philadelphia would be delighted to see Rhys Hoskins run out of town. They’d like ol’ Hoss to get traded for something like a mid-level starting pitcher who’d go .500 with a 4.50 ERA for the next two or three seasons. Why? Because Hoskins went 0-for-13 with five strikeouts in the final three losses to the Astros in the World Series. Talk about recency bias. But hey, you’ve got to blame somebody, right?

Here’s Marcus Hayes on why any talk of trading Hoskins is lunacy.

Former Nationals teammate Trea Turner might be Bryce Harper’s “favorite player in the league,” but he’s unlikely to base a hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars decision on being able to play with his friends. But make no mistake, the Phillies must be considered among the favorites in the Turner derby. Here’s what you need to know about the most dynamic member of a stellar free-agent class of shortstops.

The Phillies extended the contract of president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski for three years, the team announced on Tuesday. Dombrowski, who signed a four-year deal with the Phillies in 2020, is now under contract through the 2027 season.

It’s clear that Xander Bogaerts won’t command as much in free agency as fellow shortstops Trea Turner or Carlos Correa, both of whom may approach $300 million. But for, say, $175 million to $200 million over seven or eight years, is it worth the Phillies overlooking Bogaerts’ defensive uncertainty? One National League scout isn’t worried about his defense at shortstop, but even if he had to move off the position at some point, the Phillies would have options.

Only a fool would rule the Phillies out of the top of the free-agent market, where veterans like Justin Verlander and Kenley Jansen could demand pricey short-term deals. But here are four pitchers who could offer the Phillies more value as they seek to bolster their pitching staff while also making a run at one of the four star shortstops available on this year’s free-agent market.

With four star-studded shortstops on the free-agent market — and an owner in John Middleton who is willing to spend as much as it takes to win — the Phillies will need to figure out what the priority is at that position. If the priority is defense, Dansby Swanson, who is coming off of his first career Gold Glove season after raising his defensive runs saved from minus-7 in 2021 to 9 in 2022, would be an obvious fit.

Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper underwent successful Tommy John surgery with Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles on Nov. 23, according to a team press release. The Phillies said Harper is expected to return as the designated hitter by the 2023 All-Star break, and could return in right field toward the end of the regular season. Position players typically require six to eight months of recovery time from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, the Phillies will have to make do without their franchise player and have several options.

The Phillies say they hope to have Bryce Harper back in the lineup after the All-Star break. That’s a similar timeline to the one that Angels two-way star Shohei Otani followed after similar surgery in 2018. He was back on the field 31 weeks after the procedure. In Harper’s case, that would equate to the last week of June. The Phillies play their 81st game on June 29, so even if Harper does get himself back before the mid-July All-Star break, he’ll almost certainly miss half of their schedule.

That’s a long enough time to warrant Dave Dombrowski spending some resources on a replacement. Problem is, he’d need to find a spot for that replacement once Harper returns. Which is part of the reason a big ticket shortstop would make so much sense, writes David Murphy.

When shortstop Carlos Correa opted out of his three year, $105 million deal with the Minnesota Twins this offseason, he sent a clear message to the rest of the baseball world: He thinks he is worth more, and is willing to test that theory in the free-agent market.

Luckily for Correa, there are teams out there — like the Phillies — who are willing to pay big to get what they need, but the question is whether Correa fits that mold. He reportedly wants a deal in the eight-year range, and while Correa is young — he turned 28 on Sept. 22 — his durability could be questioned.

if you thought the Phillies could get back a No. 2 or 3 starter this winter in a trade for Rhys Hoskins, let the Blue Jays-Mariners and Brewers-Angels swaps open your eyes to reality.

Sorry, it’s probably not happening. If the Phillies were inclined, they could trade Hoskins, who would be particularly appealing to a first-base-needy contender. But even Hoskins’ most vocal detractors surely agree that the Phillies would derive less value from such a trade than by keeping their first baseman right where he is for one more year, especially because they lack the internal options to replace him.

As the Phillies hunt for a shortstop — two rival officials said this week they continue to believe president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will put on a full-court press for Trea Turner — there’s little reason to doubt that they will land one, especially now that they know Harper will miss at least the first few months of the season while recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery.

But what if they don’t?

It’s crucial, then, to have Plan B, Plan C, and Plan D, especially with activity due to pick up at the winter meetings next week in San Diego. Let’s look at a few potential contingency plans on the off chance that John Middleton and Dombrowski come up empty in their shortstop pursuit.

Zach Eflin, among the youngest starting pitchers in a free-agent market that’s still only simmering, has agreed to a three-year, $40 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, a source confirmed Thursday night. The deal was not announced because it is pending a physical. It marks a homecoming for Eflin, who grew up and still resides in central Florida, near Orlando, and ends a seven-year career with the Phillies.

Position players, especially outfielders, come back from Tommy John surgery in about half the time as pitchers, who typically require 12 to 18 months. That’s cause for the Phillies to be hopeful about Bryce Harper — and not to feel panicked into altering their offseason plan, which centers on signing a star free-agent shortstop and adding depth to the starting rotation and the bullpen.

But this is also true: Few outfielders have actually gone through this. In the absence of an apples-to-apples comparison to confidently predict Harper’s return date, let’s look at two examples that may help gauge his timeline more specifically.

The Phillies have added depth to their outfield, making a waiver claim on lefty-hitting Jake Cave from the Baltimore Orioles. Cave, who turned 30 Sunday, is a .235/.297/.411 hitter with 33 homers and a 93 OPS+ in 335 games over parts of five seasons with the Minnesota Twins. In allocating a 40-man roster spot to Cave, the Phillies added an extra left-handed hitter who can play all three outfield positions. With Bryce Harper expected to miss at least a few months while recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh are the Phillies’ lone lefty-hitting outfielders.

It figures to be a busy week for Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and his band of executives. Here are a few of the more pertinent questions heading into the meetings, which get underway Monday.

The meetings conclude on Wednesday with the Rule 5 draft.

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling were passed over by a Baseball Hall of Fame committee that elected former big league slugger Fred McGriff to Cooperstown on Sunday.

It was the first time that Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling had faced a Hall committee since their 10th and final appearances on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America ballot.

Teams have until this date to work out a contract with players who are eligible for arbitration. If the sides don’t come to an agreement, they will exchange salary figures. Arbitration hearings will be scheduled in February.

The players have five arbitration-eligible players: Rhys Hoskins, Ranger Suárez, José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, and Edmundo Sosa.