Phillies’ free-agent pitching options include few of the difference-makers they need
There is very little certainty on the market for arms, where the Phillies have been burned before.
There comes a point in every offseason when a baseball team shifts its focus from selling itself on the things its roster needs to selling itself on the things its roster has. Part of it is messaging. Part of it is self-deception. All of it has its roots in a piece of age-old wisdom best conveyed by a singer-songwriter who (allegedly) used to soak his guitar strings in barbecue sauce. If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with.
Of course, Stephen Stills never had to start Noah Syndergaard in Game 5 of the World Series. Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson have. Which is why every Phillies fan should hope that the song they were singing about their pitching staff on Wednesday afternoon was mostly a case of some early-offseason poker-facing. When a team needs something as badly as the Phillies need arms, the worst thing it can do is broadcast that weakness to the rest of the market. The time might come when Dombrowski must talk himself into believing that he can patch up his rotation and bullpen with the same spare parts he used last season. Until then, there must be some other plan, right?
Right?
Well, maybe.
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Dombrowski may have been keeping it close to the vest when he said that the Phillies would be “open-minded” about the pitching market. After all, he said the same thing about the shortstop market. The Phillies are almost certainly considering a big bid on one of four superstar free agents. Maybe he was obfuscating when he labeled Ranger Suárez as part of a “Big Three” at the top of the Phillies rotation. Same goes for when he mentioned Connor Brogdon alongside late-innings relief aces Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado.
“We know how important depth is, so we’re open-minded to that,” Dombrowski said. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be a top-of-the-rotation type guy. We’ll explore that market. I think like almost every other club in baseball, we’re going to be open-minded to the relief pitching ... even though we have a nice foundation of Seranthony, Alvarado, Brogdon, and some other people back.”
Maybe open-minded will turn out to be “aggressive.” It wouldn’t be the first time. But Dombrowski also might be coming to grips with the reality of this year’s pitching market. Unlike shortstop, there simply aren’t a whole lot of clear difference-makers.
John Middleton’s money can buy a lot of things, but it can’t buy a pitcher where there isn’t one. That’s the problem with trying to rebuild a rotation and a bullpen every offseason. The free-agent market is a notoriously poor place to do it.
The Phillies know that firsthand. In the last two offseasons, they spent a combined $38 million on seven free-agent pitchers. In return, those seven pitchers combined to give the Phillies a whopping 0.1 Wins Above Replacement. Remember Chase Anderson, Brandon Kintzler, and Matt Moore? That was only two years ago. Together, they made 23 starts that lasted a combined 93⅔ innings, and logged an additional 57 innings in relief. The Phillies spent a total of $10 million on the trio, each of whom finished with an ERA over 6.00.
They also spent $6 million on Archie Bradley in 2021. He finished the year with a 3.71 ERA in 51 innings, production that certainly would have improved this year’s ‘pen. But he also finished it on the injured list with a forearm strain, so he may not have been available had the Phillies made the postseason.
Pre-2022, the Phillies spent $22 million on three free-agent pitchers. Only one of them was still on the active roster in the postseason. Jeurys Familia ($6 million) was cut. Corey Knebel ($10 million) was hurt. Brad Hand ($6 million) had a decent regular season and pitched 2⅔ scoreless innings in three NLDS wins over the Braves.
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The final tally: four unmitigated busts for a combined $16 million, plus three guys you can live with as your seventh or eighth option for a combined $22 million.
Those are the waters the Phillies might again be fishing. It should surprise nobody if their Plan A involves spending $35 million on a shortstop and then hunt for value on the pitching side. The problem is more the supply of talent than the Phillies’ ability to pay for it. Right now, they project to have upwards of $60 million to spend before hitting the luxury tax. Middleton is willing to go over. The question is if there is anybody worth it.
On the starting side, it might make sense to give Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon $25-plus million if it came with a guarantee that the Phillies would get X years of playoff-caliber starting pitching. But they would not be getting anything close to that with any of those three pitchers.
Mets righty Chris Bassitt has averaged 161 innings in his last three non-COVID-19 seasons with very good rate stats. The question is price: He turned down a one-year, $19.7 million qualifying offer. If the Phillies aren’t comfortable paying three years and $60 million for a 34-year-old pitcher, they could have to wait and hope that nobody else is, either. Same goes for Nathan Eovaldi, whom Dombrowski once traded for while general manager of the Red Sox. A more cost-effective option might be a steady veteran like Cardinals lefty Jose Quintana, who held the Phillies scoreless for 5⅓ innings in Game 1 of the wild-card round.
On the relief side, Mets closer Edwin Diaz was the one clear difference maker set to hit the market. He was paid handsomely not to test it. Rafael Montero would have been an ideal fit for the Phillies, but he has already re-upped with the Astros for three years and $34.5 million. Tigers lefty Andrew Chafin fits the sort of profile they should be looking for. (He just turned down a $6.5 million option, to give you some context of price.) Beyond that, there is mostly a collection of Knebels, Hands, and Familias.
Wherever the Phillies turn, they won’t be buying certainty. Thomson knows this as well as anybody.
“Ideally, you want eight Alvarados,” the manager said.
Of course, the Phillies didn’t sign Alvarado as a free agent. Therein lies the point.