Three ways to jump-start another Phillies hot streak. Trea Turner in left field is not one.

Turns out, there are a couple of downsides to going on a 29-6 tear early in the season.

1 — It warps your sense of what is possible.

2 — It warps your sense of what is real.

The first one is a lot easier to navigate than the second. I don’t think anybody fooled themselves into thinking that the Phillies’ 37-14 start meant that they were destined to challenge the 2001 Mariners for the best regular-season record in big league history. The more interesting question: What do we make of this last month?

You wouldn’t know it by looking at the standings, but the Phillies have been rather ordinary since Memorial Day. Their 5-2 loss to the Padres on Wednesday afternoon dropped them to 12-11 in their last 23 games. Yet their division lead over the Braves has grown by a game, and they remain four games up on the Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs.

Who, exactly, are these Phillies?

Are they wire-to-wire regular-season champs, needing only their next hot streak to put some serious distance between themselves and the rest of the league?

Or are they closer to the team we’ve seen during both of the stretches that bookended their world-beating phase from mid-April to mid-May?

That depends on three things, at least from my vantage point:

Sitting in the press box at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, I had the jarring experience of seeing Stott’s season-long numbers appear on the left field scoreboard. A month ago, he looked like he was in the midst of a breakout that would change the Phillies’ offensive expectations by an order of magnitude. A .393 on base percentage, an .849 OPS, five home runs in 136 at-bats — these weren’t just improvements over his first couple of seasons. They were the numbers of a legitimate star, particularly at second base.

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Stott’s last 26 games have been a different story: a .181/.243/.234 batting line with no home runs in 94 at bats. Overall, his .701 OPS ranks right around league average, just as his .747 OPS did last season.

A cold stretch? Or regression to the mean?

The question is all about upside. We know what Stott is. Even when he isn’t hitting, he is giving the Phillies the kind of at-bats that bring positive value. There’s nothing wrong with a league-average bat and premium defense at the bottom of your lineup.

Thing is, the bottom of the lineup is often the differentiator between a good offense and a great one. That was certainly the case with Stott during the Phillies’ 26-5 run, when he drove in 24 runs and scored 25.

At least once or twice a season, a storyline comes along that leaves me wondering whether I’m living in the same reality as everybody else. I’m not too proud to conduct a little self-inventory. Sometimes, it’s me. Not this time.

Edmundo Sosa in the outfield is not a serious answer. Sosa at shortstop and Trea Turner in the outfield is even less of one. The problem with Sosa playing every day at either position is that he shouldn’t be playing every day anywhere. We’ve seen that countless times throughout his career. Utility men become utility men for a reason. Sosa happens to be a very good one. There’s no shame in that.

The way I understand it, the thinking goes something like this. Sosa is a better shortstop than Turner. Meanwhile, Turner played 45 games of average-to-below center field as a 23-year-old, which means we can pencil him in for 80-plus games of average-to-above left field as a 30-year-old coming off a lengthy hamstring injury. So, presto, change-o, easy, peasy.

The question remains: Why are we bending over backward to try to get Sosa’s bat in the lineup? What am I missing? He is hitting .200 with a .555 OPS in his last 16 games, 14 of them starts. Those numbers are perfectly in line with the ones we’ve seen out of him in previous stints as a long-term sub.

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In 2023, Sosa started 44 of the Phillies’ first 72 games.

Here were his numbers during that stretch:

Games 1-27: 15 starts, 58 PA, .309 AVG, .891 OPS

Games 28-72: 29 starts, 107 PA, .204 AVG, .491 OPS

After Bryce Harper returned from the injured list and began transitioning to first base, Sosa returned to more of a utility role. And, lo and behold, his bat returned

Games 73-162: 34 starts, 135 PA, .265 AVG, .832 OPS

The trajectory was the same in 2021, Sosa’s last full season with the Cardinals. He worked his way into an everyday job, started 34 of 39 games at midseason, and hit .252 with a .644 OPS. He finished the season in a utility role, started 40 of 80 games, and hit .283 with a .789 OPS.

Heck, the trajectory is similar even throughout the course of a game.

Sosa career in innings 1-3: .301 AVG, .874 OPS

Sosa career in innings 4-6: .247 AVG, .712 OPS

Sosa career in innings 7-9: .229 AVG, .623 OPS

The only way the Phillies are going to solve their problem in left field is with someone who isn’t currently on the roster.

If the Sanchize keeps this up, the Phillies will be hard-pressed not to push for 100 wins. The No. 4 starter is currently on pace for 188 innings with a 2.91 ERA (138 ERA+). Since the 1994 strike, there have been eight teams that finished a season with four starters at 180-plus innings pitched and a 110 ERA+. All of them won at least 93 games and five won at least 99.

As for the bullpen, what you see is what you are going to get unless something happens at the trade deadline. The back of the bullpen has been great, but games like Wednesday’s loss to the Padres will limit the Phillies’ ceiling. A 2-1 deficit becomes a 5-1 deficit, and that’s all she wrote. The presence of another high-level arm would have allowed Rob Thomson to avoid Seranthony Domínguez or Gregory Soto in that situation, which would have given the Phillies a much better chance at pulling out a win in the late innings. Look at any 100-win team and you’ll see plenty of those sorts of victories.