Forget about Jordan Montgomery. Phillies can’t afford to ignore the long term in a stacked NL.

CLEARWATER, Fla. — There was an afternoon earlier this week when the talk of the Phillies clubhouse was a 25-year-old shortstop with a 6-foot-7 inch frame and a penchant for triple-digit exit velocities. For the second time this spring, they’d tried and failed to slow down Oneil Cruz, allowing two more tape-measure home runs to the third-year Pirates sensation. A couple of Phillies pitchers marveled at his fifth-inning at-bat against Spencer Turnbull, from the 1-2 curveball he golfed over the right-center fence to the preceding pitch, an inside, offspeed pitch that he’d ripped foul with a ferocious crack.

Rob Thomson, a man not usually known for his hot takes, got into the spirit of the season and offered his own bold prediction for the upcoming campaign.

“Those guys are going to surprise some people this year,” Thomson said after watching the Pirates beat the Phillies, 11-2. “I really do think that.”

Thomson strikes me as the kind of guy who has a pretty high batting average when he goes on the record. He may not swing often. But when he does, he connects.

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In fact, I think a team like the Pirates is one of the reasons we’ve heard a strong undertone of urgency in the voices of Thomson and his bosses as they talk about the need to hit the ground running once the regular season begins. The National League is a heck of a lot better this year than it was the previous two seasons. The margin for error is not what it has been.

This was true even before the Giants threw Scott Boras a lifeline on Sunday and signed Blake Snell to a two-year, $62 million deal. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner was one of two big-name Boras clients still lingering on the free-agent market. The reaction from Phillies fans was predicable. If John Middleton really wants to win, he’ll sign the other guy! Except, Jordan Montgomery isn’t going to be tipping any scales in this National League race. The Phillies are who they are. They must become who they need to be.

Phillies president Dave Dombrowski is 100% correct when he downplays the need to continue adding to his talent. He has done it for most of this offseason, well aware that the bulk of his available resources would wind up in the pockets of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, both of whom signed nine-digit extensions to remain at the top of the rotation. He did it again on Tuesday when he was asked about Montgomery during an appearance on the WIP-FM morning show.

“Well, I think we’re really comfortable with where we are right now,” Dombrowski said. “The reality is, our starting pitching — if it stays healthy — it’s really good.”

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Would the Phillies be better with Montgomery? Sure. In fact, if Dombrowski hadn’t signed Taijuan Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract last offseason, Montgomery or Snell might already be in Clearwater. But he did, and they aren’t. The last thing the Phillies want is to relegate Walker to a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency long-man role. That’s what he was last offseason, with Cristopher Sánchez as the one spot start the Phillies needed in the NLCS. Add another starter to the mix, and Dombrowski either needs to send Sánchez to the bullpen or leave Walker without a role, potentially for the duration of his current deal.

That’s a harsh lesson in the reality of opportunity costs. It is also a pertinent one to consider with regard to Montgomery. You can’t sign everybody. Even if there is enough money, there aren’t enough roster spots to go around. Fact is, the Phillies already have three pitchers under contract for big dollars for at least the next three years, two of them with guarantees of $120-plus million. Ranger Suárez could easily pitch himself into that category by the end of the season, a fact that Dombrowski is surely factoring into any decision-making with regard to the current rotation. Suárez is two years away from free agency, and might already be staring at a big extension if not for a couple of minor injuries that set his last couple of seasons off-kilter.

Factor in the projected arrival of top prospect Andrew Painter in 2025 and the outlook gets even more crowded. Factor in the next Yoshinobu Yamamoto who hits the free-agent market. You’d hate for a stopgap pitcher to prevent you from making a serious bid. We haven’t factored in Sánchez yet, either.

I get it. You can’t have too much pitching. I’m a subscriber. Heck, I’d make that the name of my newsletter, if I wrote a newsletter. These things have way of working themselves out, the baseball men like to say.

At the same time, we live in a world of limited resources. Even Middleton must abide by its constraints. Look at this offseason’s National League arms race and you’ll actually find reason for caution when it comes to potential signings like Montgomery. The league is on the rise. This season is just the beginning.

The Dodgers added a fleet of elite talent in Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and former Rays righty Tyler Glasnow. The Giants hope they did likewise with Korean import Jung Hoo Lee, who signed a six-year, $113 million contract to play outfield and bat leadoff. The Braves have Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and Michael Harris Jr. all locked up for at least the next three seasons, and most of their bullpen locked up for the next two. The Diamondbacks are still being slept on. It should surprise nobody if they are representing the NL in the World Series again.

Factor in up-and-comers like the Pirates and Cubs, and the Phillies need to think carefully about the moves they will need to be making at this time next year, and in 2026. They are in win-now mode, yes. But they can’t afford to over-prioritize the present if it will limit their ability to do something truly impactful in the near-term future. They did it last year with Walker. Taking a mulligan there won’t kill them. But they eventually add up.