John Middleton expects the Phillies to spend more in 2025. And they have options beyond Juan Soto.

The Phillies don’t have much choice but to maintain their spending level, and Middleton said he is open to pushing the payroll into the third tax threshold “for the right player.”

by Scott Lauber

Published Nov. 1, 2024, 5:00 a.m. ET

It wasn’t about only LA vs. NYC, or Hollywood vs. Broadway, or even Ohtani vs. Judge. And certainly not Ice Cube vs. Fat Joe, a mismatch of pregame rap performances if ever there was one.

At its core, the 120th World Series was also about money.

Big money.

One year after the three teams with the highest payrolls (Mets, Yankees, Padres) missed the playoffs, the Dodgers and Yankees constituted a Fall Classic matchup of the No. 2 and No. 3 payrolls, at $351 million and $314 million, respectively, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts and calculated for luxury tax purposes.

The Phillies lived in a similarly high-rent neighborhood, even though they went home two rounds shy of the World Series. They won the NL East with baseball’s fifth-highest payroll: $261 million, which cleared the second threshold of the luxury tax. As such, they will get hit with a tax penalty of roughly $13 million, bringing their total outlay to a club-record $274 million.

That’s a hefty price for one postseason victory.

It’s fair to wonder, then, if the payroll will increase again next season, and if so, by how much?

With the free-agent market due to open Monday and the general managers’ meetings scheduled for next week in San Antonio, how much financial flexibility does president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have to change the roster? Can the Phillies add another high-salaried player, or make only tweaks on the margins?

“Given where we are in contract cycles and minor league people coming up, I expect the player payroll to be higher [than this year] rather than lower,” owner John Middleton said this week. “I’d be surprised if it’s the same, and I’d be stunned, very stunned, if it’s lower. I don’t see it being lower.”

The truth is, the Phillies don’t have much choice but to maintain their payroll level. They have $220.5 million in 2025 commitments to 11 players, including seven — Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber — who will make at least $20 million. As many as nine other players are in line for raises through salary arbitration.

But the Phillies also have gone into luxury-tax territory three years in a row, hiking their tax rate to 50%. Over the years, other team owners, including the Steinbrenner family, in a similar predicament have ducked under the threshold for one year to reset the tax penalty to 20%.

Instead, Middleton indicated that he will consider pushing the payroll beyond even the third threshold — $281 million next year — if the opportunity arises to add another impact player. Never mind that the Phillies would get hit with a 92.5% surcharge on every dollar over $281 million and have their 2026 first-round draft pick moved back 10 spots.

“For the right player,” Middleton said, “I have a high degree of confidence that Dave and I would go over the third limit.”

OK, press pause. There’s only one true difference-making hitter on the free-agent market. But before you race to have Juan Soto’s name and No. 22 stitched to your red pinstriped jersey, be advised that the Yankees want to keep him — “I hope he’s here forever,” manager Aaron Boone told reporters this week — and will be motivated after a World Series disappointment. And in free agency, the Bronx Bombers usually get the players they want, though not quite as often since Hal Steinbrenner took over for his late father.

The Yankees anticipate a crosstown challenge from Mets owner Steve Cohen, the wealthiest man in baseball. The Giants and Blue Jays, bridesmaids in their respective free-agent bids for Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, have money to spend. Never rule out the Dodgers.

Soto, a hitting savant for all time, will go to the highest bidder. And by virtue of his age (he turned 26 on Oct. 25) and talent, the bidding is expected to soar to at least $40 million per year and $500 million overall, probably more.

The Phillies will do what they should as a big-market contender, as they did last year with prized free-agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The guess here is they will request and receive a meeting with Soto. Surely, they will try to persuade him by leveraging his relationships with Turner and, especially, hitting coach Kevin Long.

(Long coached Soto for four seasons with the Nationals, and they grew so close that Soto invited Long to join him and agent Scott Boras in the front row at Dodger Stadium to root on Turner and Max Scherzer in a wild-card game in 2021. Soto wore a Nationals jersey with Turner’s name and number.)

Soto’s elite plate discipline makes him the perfect fit for a Phillies lineup packed with hitters who tend to swing at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone. But let’s be real: Soto would be a perfect fit for 30 teams. Only a handful can afford him, so he and Boras will keep open as many options as possible.

“I don’t know all the teams that are after me, but I’m definitely open to listen,” Soto told reporters after the World Series-ending loss in Game 5 at Yankee Stadium. “I don’t have any doors closed. I’m available to all 30 teams.”

Let’s say, though, that Soto shuffles back to New York — either the Bronx or Queens. The Phillies could put their financial might to use in other ways.

To wit: The Brewers reportedly will exercise their $10.5 million option for closer Devin Williams, which would make him the club’s highest-paid reliever since Eric Gagne in 2008. Williams can be a free agent after next season. Milwaukee also had one of baseball’s best bullpens this year despite Williams missing four months with a back injury.

The Brewers traded ace Corbin Burnes before his final year of team control. Would they do the same with Williams, who had a 1.25 ERA and went 14-for-15 in save chances but gave up a crushing homer to the Mets’ Pete Alonso in the postseason?

“We have to stay open-minded,” Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters a few weeks ago. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in the place that we are. … I still believe he’s the best closer in baseball, and I’m happy to have him.”

The Phillies’ group of high-leverage relievers will undergo change. Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering are set to return, but Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are free agents.

“It’s hard for me to imagine that you end up bringing them both back under the circumstances,” Dombrowski said. “Because I would gather they’re both going to get offered long-term big-dollar contracts, which they’re going to be looking for. I don’t see us spending that type of money on two relievers.”

But the Phillies could take on Williams’ salary for one year and install him in the ninth inning, then bring back, say, Hoffman as the primary right-handed setup man. Other closers who are eligible for salary arbitration and might be on the market include the Cardinals’ Ryan Helsley, the Giants’ Camilo Doval, and the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan.

Nothing about the postseason suggested that spending more money is an inadvisable strategy.

Money alone doesn’t bring the trophy Middleton is so desperate to reacquire. The team with the highest payroll hasn’t won the World Series since 2018, when the Red Sox — run by Dombrowski, by the way — rode a $239.5 million payroll (and $12 million tax bill) to the championship.

But spending big for elite players sure can help a team get closer. In the last three seasons, 22 teams have gone over the luxury tax; 16 reached the playoffs, including the Phillies in three consecutive years. Their luxury tax payroll has climbed from $209 million in 2021 to $244 million, $255 million, and $261 million, while their regular-season win total went from 82 to 87, 90, and 95.

It’s hardly a coincidence. And to finally get over the top, Middleton may have to take the payroll even higher if Dombrowski identifies a player who can make the difference.

“John is very accommodating and giving, but you’re also in a position where you’re still working with a payroll and trying to make things work for you and go into the future with what you have,” Dombrowski said. “But I have no indication that we’re not going to continue to be aggressive in trying to have an aggressive payroll.”