Phillies vs. Marlins predictions: Our picks for who wins their NL wild-card series

The Phillies are back in the playoffs, coming off their first 90-win season since 2011. They will meet the Marlins in the wild-card series, which begins Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park, and while they are favored, the Phillies did lose the season series to Miami, 7-6.

The Marlins had success in Philadelphia this season, winning two of three games on April 10-12 and Sept. 8-10.

So who will advance to take on the Atlanta Braves in an NL Division Series? Here are our predictions:

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Can Skip Schumaker torment the Phils again? He was the Cardinals batter when the rally squirrel appeared in 2011 at Busch Stadium and then drove in the only run two days later on the night a great Phillies era ended. He’s done an excellent job this season as Miami’s first-year manager, guiding the Marlins to the playoffs a year or two before most expected them to be dancing.

But the road ends at Citizens Bank Park against a team built for the postseason. Zack Wheeler will carry the Phillies in Game 1 before the offense — which is tied for the most homers in the majors since Aug. 1 and has the third-highest OPS over that span — turns it on in Game 2. Winning in two is key as it gives the Phils an extra day off to better align their pitching ahead of the NLDS against Atlanta. Remember, that extra day was crucial last October.

Prediction: Phillies in 2.

Jesus Luzardo has fared well against the Phillies this year, but he does not have much postseason experience. He pitched 10⅔ innings in the 2019 and 2020 AL wild-card games and in the 2020 AL Division Series with the Oakland A’s, and has a postseason ERA of 5.91. Pitching in Citizens Bank Park in October could be a challenge for him in Game 1. Nola is coming off of two of his best starts of the season. He’s struggled against Miami in the past, but how he’s been pitching of late could push the Phillies to a two-game victory. And if he doesn’t pitch well, the unflappable Ranger Suárez can come in for a few innings.

Prediction: Phillies in 2.

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The Marlins are missing reigning Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and phenom Eury Pérez. Batting champion Luis Arrez is injured. Wheeler is a lockdown stud, the Phillies have won Aaron Nola’s last three starts behind his 2.60 ERA, and Jose Alvarado is back. That’s enough for the Phillies to win Tuesday and Wednesday and earn a trip to Atlanta this weekend.

Prediction: Phillies in 2.

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It would’ve been fascinating to see this series with Alcantara and Pérez on the mound and Arraez playing on two healthy ankles. Alas, that won’t come to pass for the Marlins. The Phillies, meanwhile, have a fully loaded lineup, plus horses Wheeler and Nola lined up to start Games 1 and 2. It’s simple: The better, healthier team wins.

Prediction: Phillies in 2.

The Phillies can’t make it as easy as they did last year, can they? Sure they can. Jesus Luzardo will be a challenge in Game 1, but the Phillies’ penchant for late-game heroics will serve them well. The Marlins have had Nola’s number all season, but Phillies win Game 2 in a slugfest and head back to Atlanta.

Prediction: Phillies in 2.

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Been saying it all season. Will keep saying it now: The Phillies are the team that nobody else in the National League, not even the Braves, wants to see in the playoffs. They’re tough, and with their lineup and power pitching in the bullpen, they’re built to win a short series. The Marlins enter this series with nothing to lose, and it’ll be interesting to see what the atmosphere will be like at Citizens Bank Park for Game 2 if the Fish steal Game 1. But I don’t think they will.

Prediction: Phillies in 2.